{"id":2019224,"date":"2023-09-01T11:11:02","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T15:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-payrolls-revised-lower-every-month-in-2023\/"},"modified":"2023-09-01T11:14:14","modified_gmt":"2023-09-01T15:14:14","slug":"us-payrolls-revised-lower-every-month-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-payrolls-revised-lower-every-month-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"US payrolls revised downward monthly in 2023."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">14<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fus-payrolls-revised-lower-every-month-in-2023%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2019224&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>Is the U.S. Economy and Labor Market Weaker Than Reported?<\/h2>\n<p>In recent\u200c weeks, federal \u200dagencies have announced revisions to various economic \u2064metrics, be it the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/its-official-trump-crushes-record-for-largest-gdp-increase-in-us-history-3rd-quarter-gdp-up-33-1\/\" title=\"IT'S OFFICIAL: Trump Crushes Record for Largest GDP Increase in US History -- 3rd Quarter GDP Up 33.1%\">gross domestic product<\/a> or monthly \u200djobs data. While there is not anything typically unusual about revisions, the \u200dfrequency and size of some of the changes have turned heads in economic circles,\u200c leading to speculation that the country may not be as strong as reported.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<h3>Related\u2062 Stories<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n      <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/us-economy-adds-187000-new-jobs-unemployment-rate-climbs-5484683\">US Economy Adds 187,000 New Jobs, Unemployment \u2064Rate Climbs<\/a><br \/>\n      <br \/>\n      <span class=\"text-comp-caption\">9\/1\/2023<\/span>\n    <\/li>\n<li>\n      <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/article\/us-job-openings-fall-below-9-million-for-1st-time-in-over-2-years-5482622\">US Job Openings Fall Below 9 Million for 1st Time\u200b in \u2064Over 2 Years<\/a><br \/>\n      <br \/>\n      <span class=\"text-comp-caption\">8\/30\/2023<\/span>\n    <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The labor market added 187,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly shot up to 3.8 percent, according to\u200b the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bureau of Labor\u200b Statistics (BLS)<\/a>. But while the U.S. economy has added jobs for 39 consecutive months, a notable component of the\u200d latest report was the revisions.<\/p>\n<p>The \u2064change in total payrolls for June was adjusted down by 80,000 to 105,000. The \u2064initial estimate showed that the labor market created 209,000\u2064 jobs. Because of the revision, June represented the worst jobs report since December 2020.<\/p>\n<p>July employment figures were revised down by \u206230,000 to 157,000.<\/p>\n<p>In the first seven months of 2023, employment revisions have totaled 355,000. \u200cThe country has\u200c not witnessed six consecutive months of downward revisions outside of\u2062 recessions since the peak of the 2007 \u2064housing bubble.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Monthly revisions result \u200dfrom additional reports received from businesses \u2064and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation \u200dof seasonal factors,&#8221; the BLS notes.<\/p>\n<p>Peter \u200bSchiff, the chief economist and global \u2064strategist \u2062at\u200c Euro Pacific Capital, says this is &#8220;not random.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Every 2023 #jobs report has been revised significantly lower,&#8221; he\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterSchiff\/status\/1697597334941516060\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrote<\/a> on X, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-payrolls-revised-lower-every-month-in-2023\/\" title=\"US payrolls revised downward monthly in 2023.\">social\u2063 media outlet previously<\/a> known as Twitter.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Seven downward\u2064 revisions\u200d in a row is not random. The labor\u200b department has been consistently overestimating job growth. No doubt that today&#8217;s August 187,000 job number \u2064will also be revised significantly lower next month.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The BLS confirmed in a separate report that the U.S. jobs market was slower than reported in the 12 months ending in March 2023.<\/p>\n<p>According to the \u200cannual benchmark \u2063review of\u200b payroll data, U.S. employment growth was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/business\/government-revises-employment-data-306000-private-jobs-vanish-5479290\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">revised lower by 306,000<\/a>, representing roughly \u206225,000 fewer net jobs per month in this 12-month period.<\/p>\n<p>Private sector \u2063job creation was adjusted lower by 358,000, while government payrolls were revised up by\u2064 52,000.<\/p>\n<p>The overall benchmark revision totaled negative 0.2 percent, below the decade average of 0.1 \u200cpercent.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The \u2063deterioration is large. The significantly \u2063large \u2062revisions make me nervous. It distorts the kind \u200cof view we have \u200band how much we&#8217;ve slowed\u2062 over the last several plus months,&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RNCResearch\/status\/1697595783799845268\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said<\/a> CNBC personality Rick Santelli.<\/p>\n<p>But\u2064 St. Louis Fed\u2063 economists purport that \u200d&#8221;deviations \u200cshould average out to zero over time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In short, revisions to the monthly payroll \u2064employment estimates may be useful guides to the near-term strength or weakness of the economy, but should be considered within the context of overall economic conditions,&#8221; they <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/publications\/employment-research\/are-unemployment-data-revisions-biased\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrote<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Will the August payrolls be revised lower, too?<\/p>\n<h2>Slower GDP Growth<\/h2>\n<p>The national economy expanded 2.1\u2062 percent in \u200bthe second \u2062quarter, down from the 2.4 percent initial estimate, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/blog\/2023-08-30\/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bureau of \u2062Economic Analysis (BEA)<\/a> reported on Aug. 30. Polled\u2063 economists did not anticipate revisions.<\/p>\n<p>Personal consumption&#8217;s contribution to the final GDP print inched slightly higher from 1.12 percent to 1.14 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Fixed investment was adjusted lower\u2064 from 0.83 percent \u2062to 0.66\u200d percent.<\/p>\n<p>Net exports were changed from \u2064negative 1.28 percent to negative 1.26 \u200cpercent, and imports were lowered from 1.16 percent to 1.04 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Government consumption rose from\u2064 0.45 percent to 0.58 percent, meaning that \u2062if this metric were\u200d unchanged, the second-quarter\u200c GDP growth \u2063rate would have been just under 2 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The\u2063 final second-quarter GDP estimate will be published on Sept. 28.<\/p>\n<p>Gross domestic income (GDI), an alternative tracker of\u2063 economic growth, rose at an annualized clip of 0.5 percent, suggesting that growth is \u200dbelow the\u200c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/theyre-enslaved-tucker-carlson-warns-against-americans-increasingly-replacing-religion-with-politics\/\" title=\"\u2018They\u2019re Enslaved\u2019: Tucker Carlson Warns Against Americans Increasingly Replacing Religion With Politics\">long-term trend<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Despite \u2063the\u200d modest downward revisions, the second estimate of Quarter 2 GDP \u200bcontinued to show that economic growth \u200cexpanded at\u2062 an above-trend pace last quarter, with all the strength concentrated within \u200cdomestic demand (i.e., \u2062consumption, fixed investment, and \u2062government),&#8221; TD\u2063 Economics s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is the US economy and labor market weaker than reported? Federal agencies have recently revised economic metrics like GDP and jobs data. The frequency and size of these changes have caught attention, although revisions are not uncommon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":278,"featured_media":2019225,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2019224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2019224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/278"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2019224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2019224\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2019225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2019224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2019224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2019224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}