{"id":2010358,"date":"2023-08-24T03:04:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T07:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-taiwan-getting-caught-in-a-proxy-war-would-be-an-epic-u-s-failure\/"},"modified":"2023-08-24T03:14:08","modified_gmt":"2023-08-24T07:14:08","slug":"why-taiwan-getting-caught-in-a-proxy-war-would-be-an-epic-u-s-failure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-taiwan-getting-caught-in-a-proxy-war-would-be-an-epic-u-s-failure\/","title":{"rendered":"Taiwan&#8217;s entanglement in a proxy war: A colossal U.S. failure."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-taiwan-getting-caught-in-a-proxy-war-would-be-an-epic-u-s-failure%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2010358&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div class=\"article-content\">\n<h2>Is China&#8217;s\u2064 Reunification \u2064with \u200cTaiwan in Jeopardy?<\/h2>\n<p>Many signs have recently emerged \u2064in China \u2014 \u2064including a housing bubble,\u200c mounting debts, <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/china\/consumer-price-index-cpi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">deflation<\/a>, shrinking exports,\u200c foreign \u2064investment fleeing,\u2064 demographic issues, and youth unemployment soaring \u2014 that clearly indicate that leader Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2064regime is\u2062 facing unprecedented <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2023\/aug\/11\/china-economic-problems-show-things-are-seriously-amiss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">challenges<\/a> \u200dthat are undeniable but difficult to\u200d tackle. Will China stop or postpone the\u2063 process of reunification of Taiwan under these\u2063 circumstances?<\/p>\n<p>Ample evidence, including China\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/thefederalist.com\/Documents-C\/Papers\/ics\/taiwan-foreign-minister-interview\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">military preparation<\/a>, reorganization of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.org\/our-media\/indepth\/2022\/11\/chinas-new-miliatry-leadership-possible-strengths-and-weaknesses\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">military system<\/a>,\u200b and newly promulgated domestic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/chinas-new-anti-spy-law-is-just-the-beginning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">law<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/china-economy-transformation-explainer-idUSKBN2600B5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">policy<\/a>, \u2063suggest\u200c Taiwan \u2063is\u2064 being pushed to the brink of\u2062 a \u2063proxy \u200cwar, with the\u200d U.S. vying for\u200b influence\u2063 in the Indo-Pacific region to maintain its global dominance, while China is determined \u2063to establish its dominance in the same region. From \u2063the Chinese perspective \u200din the current \u2062global context, the sooner\u2063 China\u200b unifies with Taiwan the better.\u200c It is urgent for the \u200bUnited States to avert the nightmarish scenario of Taiwan becoming\u2064 entangled in a proxy war. Failing to achieve this\u200d objective would undoubtedly mark a colossal U.S. failure and produce a consequence much \u2063worse than 50 years ago, when other\u2063 China challenges arose.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Half a century ago,\u200b the Nixon administration began to utilize\u2064 the \u201cChina card\u201d to counter the \u200cformer Soviet \u2064Union and made a \u2063significant shift in U.S. foreign \u2062policy toward China,\u200d reflected \u2063in the <a href=\"http:\/\/us.china-embassy.gov.cn\/eng\/zmgx\/zywj\/lhgb\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">three\u2064 communiqu\u00e9s<\/a>. Although these documents aimed to \u200caddress various Taiwan issues while \u200dimproving U.S.-China relations, \u200dthe two\u2064 governments \u2064had divergent interpretations\u200b and implementations\u200c of the three communiqu\u00e9s. These\u200d unresolved disputes \u2063persist\u2064 to \u2064this day and could ultimately lead \u2064to the gravest of consequences for Taiwan in the\u200d future.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Taiwan has emerged as a \u2062critical focal point in the ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/top-u-s-commander-we-must-assume-very-real-possibility-that-we-may-need-to-use-nukes-against-china-russia\/\" title=\"Top U.S. Commander: We Must Assume \u2018Very Real Possibility\u2019 That We May Need To Use Nukes Against China, Russia\">great power competition<\/a> between the United States and\u200c China, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-taiwan-getting-caught-in-a-proxy-war-would-be-an-epic-u-s-failure\/\" title=\"Taiwan's entanglement in a proxy war: A colossal U.S. failure.\">drawing unprecedented international attention<\/a>, especially following the Russian\u200d invasion of Ukraine. Theoretically, the United States \u200chas \u200cthe\u2064 moral responsibility to help Taiwan secure its\u2062 prosperous \u2063future due to \u200dits strategic\u200b location,\u200b important partnership with the United\u2064 States,\u2063 and Taiwanese \u2063democratic identity. However, the \u200dfuture of Taiwan\u200d remains uncertain largely because of the dynamic of triangular\u2064 relations. Taiwan is caught in the great power competition between\u2064 China and the United \u200cStates.<\/p>\n<h2>Four \u200dScenarios<\/h2>\n<p>The future\u200c of Taiwan encompasses roughly four potential scenarios:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Taiwan and China maintaining the status quo \u2064within the framework of\u2062 China\u2019s \u200cone-China principle and the U.S. \u2062one-China policy<\/li>\n<li>A\u2062 peaceful reunification \u200cachieved through arduous \u200cnegotiations between Taiwan and\u200c China<\/li>\n<li>Direct U.S. military involvement in a war against \u200dChina\u2019s military efforts to reunify Taiwan<\/li>\n<li>A Chinese military attack on Taiwan, leading to \u200ca proxy war without direct U.S. military intervention<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Among these four possibilities, the \u200bfirst scenario is the best\u200c for\u2064 the United States, as it would allow the United States to maintain its \u2064influence\u200b in \u200cthe region without having to commit to a military conflict with China. \u200cThe second scenario is ideal for China, as it would\u200c achieve its goal\u200b of reunification without having to use force. The third scenario\u200d is the most dangerous for the\u2064 two nuclear powers, as it could lead to a wider war over the Taiwan Strait, potentially triggering World War III. The fourth scenario presents the \u2063gravest consequences for Taiwan\u2062 and\u2062 would constitute the United States\u2019 biggest failure in\u200b its \u2062history.<\/p>\n<h2>Proxy Wars<\/h2>\n<p>Proxy wars are not a new phenomenon in international relations and\u2063 have increasingly become\u200b a <a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2021\/09\/the-return-of-great-power-proxy-wars\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">common practice<\/a> employed by major powers as a strategic\u200d tactic in \u200ccompetition between great \u200bpowers. During the Cold \u200bWar, both the United States and the Soviet Union supported \u2063different states and\u2064 non-state actors in regions such as Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Angola, and\u200d Nicaragua, but the \u200cUnited States ultimately triumphed through various strategies, including the utilization of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/beyond-the-border-crisis-a-red-curtain-stretches-southward\/\" title=\"Beyond The Border Crisis, A Red Curtain Stretches Southward\">proxy wars<\/a>. Between 1946 and 2017, there were 115 proxy wars, involving\u200b 25 different sponsors \u200dand 143 different proxies,\u2063 according to a RAND\u2064 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA307-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report<\/a>.\u2062 The United States was the most frequent sponsor, with 33 proxy wars, followed by the\u2064 Soviet Union\/Russia \u2064with 29, and China with 14.<\/p>\n<p>Great power competition creates proxy\u2062 wars\u200b because it \u2064allows\u2063 the competing powers to pursue their strategic goals \u2064by maximizing national \u2062interests \u2062while\u200b minimizing costs and risks associated with a direct confrontation against opposing major powers. Specifically, proxy wars can exploit\u200d existing conflicts\u200b in regions that are of strategic importance to the competing powers, serve as a\u2062 form of deterrence or coercion against the\u200d rival power, and\u2064 pave the way for gaining leverage power in negotiations with\u200c the rival power. Taiwan\u2019s situation\u200b meets\u200b all the prerequisites for \u200ba \u200dproxy war. If China\u200c attacked Taiwan, the U.S. would not necessarily directly participate in the war against China given the \u200dlegal consideration, potentially grave consequences of direct\u200d war with China, \u2063and\u2064 the \u2062actual capability of mobilizing a \u2063war. This partially explains why the U.S. strategic ambiguity \u2062remains \u2062unchanged.<\/p>\n<h2>U.S. in Quagmire, \u200bChina Rising<\/h2>\n<p>Since Russia\u200b invaded Ukraine, Ukraine and its people\u200d have\u2062 greatly suffered from Russia\u2019s atrocities. Although Ukraine hopes \u2062to hold \u2063a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukraine-hopes-hold-peace-summit-this-autumn-zelenskiy-2023-08-02\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">peace\u200b summit<\/a> this autumn, the war will not be \u2062over sometime soon due to \u200bvarious <a href=\"https:\/\/www.belfercenter.org\/publication\/what-caused-ukraine-war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reasons<\/a>. The war involves a wide range of actors, such as Ukraine, \u200bRussia, Ukraine, NATO, the EU, the U.S., and the UN. The war is not only a military confrontation, but \u200balso \u200ba political,\u200b economic, \u2064social,\u200d and environmental challenge. As a great military power, Russia has not exhausted its national resources \u2062for running the war. The war\u2064 could\u2064 last much longer than expected.\u200b Under these circumstances, if China \u2063decided to unify Taiwan, it would be very difficult for the U.S. \u200cto directly join the war \u2063while\u200c it\u200b is entangled in the\u2062 quagmire of the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n<p>Prior to 2010, China was relatively economically and militarily weak, not yet fully \u200bprepared to directly challenge U.S. hegemony.\u200d However,\u200b the global \u2064power dynamics \u200chave shifted in China\u2019s favor\u2063 since \u200dit\u200c became the world\u2019s second-largest economy in 2010, ushering in\u200d a \u2064new era of \u200dgreat\u200b power competition. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin acknowledges that\u2064 China is \u2064now the\u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/politics\/watch-live-defense-secretary-austin-holds-news-briefing-to-announce-2022-national-defense-strategy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sole competitor<\/a> with both the intention and capability to reshape the\u200b U.S.-led international order.\u2064 Consequently, the reunification \u2062of Taiwan \u200dhas become a pressing\u200d objective for China as part of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2015\/09\/xi-jinping-china-book-chinese-dream\/406387\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China Dream<\/a>, guided\u200b by Xi\u2019s ambitious and assertive foreign\u2064 policy.<\/p>\n<p>U.S.-China relations are further deteriorating. On Aug. 9, President \u2063Joe Biden signed an \u200b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/presidential-actions\/2023\/08\/09\/executive-order-on-addressing-united-states-investments-in-certain-national-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">executive order<\/a> restricting U.S. investment in some high-tech\u2063 industries in China, \u2062focusing \u2064on\u200c advanced semiconductors, quantum\u2062 computing, and\u200b artificial intelligence. This could make China\u2019s economy worse because it will reduce the inflow of \u2063foreign investment into the Chinese technology sector and have a knock-on \u200ceffect on \u2062the growth and profitability of some Chinese companies, as their \u2062ability to access global markets is reduced.\u2062 Unsurprisingly, China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fmprc.gov.cn\/eng\/xwfw_665399\/s2510_665401\/2535_665405\/202308\/t20230810_11124958.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">perceives<\/a> this \u2064executive order as a hostile \u2063maneuver \u2063that directly\u200d undermines \u2064its perceived rightful interests.\u2064 China is \u200dlikely \u200cto devise \u200dcountermeasures designed\u2063 to\u2062 offset\u200b the perceived damage,\u2063 thereby exacerbating the \u2062already strained tensions between these two\u2062 global powers.<\/p>\n<p>Xi\u2019s \u2062third term\u200c as China\u2019s \u2064president has given him a \u200bgreater\u200d mandate to unify Taiwan. He sees the reunification of Taiwan as\u200c essential to his \u200blegitimacy and to the \u200cfuture of China. On Aug. 15,\u00a0 \u200bin response to Biden\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/biden-calls-china-ticking-time-bomb-due-economic-troubles-2023-08-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">remarks<\/a> \u200cthat \u2062China is\u2062 a \u200c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nascar-driver-who-inspired-lets-go-brandon-says-now-extremely-difficult-to-get-sponsorships\/\" title=\"NASCAR Driver Who Inspired \u2018Let\u2019s Go Brandon\u2019 Says Now \u2018Extremely Difficult\u2019 To Get Sponsorships\">ticking time bomb<\/a>, \u200dthe Chinese Communist Party\u2019s \u200cmouthpiece Qiushi Magazine\u200b published <a href=\"http:\/\/www.qstheory.cn\/dukan\/qs\/2023-08\/15\/c_1129801483.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Xi\u2019s speech<\/a> to\u2063 deliver \u200chis\u200b strongest \u2062criticism of Western countries since taking office, <a href=\"http:\/\/chinascope.org\/archives\/33034\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stating<\/a> that \u201cthe modernization\u2063 of Western countries is \u2064full \u2062of\u2064 bloody evils \u200bsuch \u2064as\u200d war, slavery, colonization, and plundering, \u2062which \u2063have brought profound\u200b suffering to the vast number of developing countries.\u201d This not only\u200c shows Xi\u2019s\u2062 strong rhetoric but also signifies \u200cthat he is \u200cprepared for a showdown\u2063 with \u200dthe United States.<\/p>\n<p>Confronted with domestic economic dilemmas and a\u200c surge in nationalism, if there is no way forward or no way to retreat, the \u2062possibility of Xi\u2019s China \u2063turning its \u200ddomestic\u2062 crisis into an external conflict\u200d will greatly \u2062increase.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China is grappling with a multitude of pressing issues: a housing bubble, rising debts, deflation, declining exports, fleeing foreign investment, demographic concerns, and surging youth unemployment. These unmistakable challenges pose an unprecedented test for Xi Jinping&#8217;s leadership. The question remains: will China halt or delay the reunification process in light of these difficulties?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2333,"featured_media":2010359,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2010358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-federalist"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2010358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2333"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2010358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2010358\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2010359"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2010358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2010358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2010358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}