{"id":2008936,"date":"2023-08-23T04:54:01","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T08:54:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-america-grapples-with-plummeting-fertility-rates\/"},"modified":"2023-08-23T04:58:25","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T08:58:25","slug":"analysis-america-grapples-with-plummeting-fertility-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-america-grapples-with-plummeting-fertility-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"America faces a challenge with declining fertility rates."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fanalysis-america-grapples-with-plummeting-fertility-rates%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=2008936&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><blockquote>\n<h2>News Analysis<\/h2>\n<p>As governments\u2019 fears shift from a\u200b world with too many people to a world with too few, four analysts gathered at the \u200cCato \u200dInstitute last week to strategize about how the United States can reverse its trend \u200cof falling fertility rates.<\/p>\n<p>In introducing the panel, Vanessa Brown Calder, Cato\u2019s director of \u2063Family Policy Studies, said, \u201cI think I can say for all of us, \u2064the issue of \u200dfertility and family policy is not merely a theoretical one.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn fact, everyone contributing to \u200dthe conversation is\u2063 either a mom or will be one soon,\u201d Ms. Calder said.\u200c \u201cThree of the four of us are \u2064pregnant \u200dand all three trimesters are represented.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"shortcode\">\n<div class=\"border-comp-divider mb-4 mr-4 w-full max-w-[500px] border px-5 py-4 text-[16px] leading-[20px] text-[#262626] md:float-left\">\n<div class=\"mb-3 font-sans text-[16px] font-semibold uppercase leading-[19px] text-[#2F2F2F]\">Related Stories<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/world\/population-expert-says-uk-needs-to-raise-fertility-rates-or-face-a-stark-choice-between-decline-and-immigration-5413821\">Population Expert Says UK Needs to Raise Fertility Rates or Face a Stark Choice Between Decline and Immigration<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">7\/21\/2023<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div class=\"grow\">\n<div class=\"mb-1 line-clamp-2\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/opinion\/barbara-kay-doomography-the-trend-of-plunging-fertility-rates-is-eroding-societal-well-being-5235877\">Barbara Kay:\u2063 \u2018Doomography\u2019: The Trend of Plunging Fertility Rates Is Eroding Societal Well-Being<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"text-comp-caption text-[14px] leading-[18px]\">5\/2\/2023<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The discussion took place amid reports that hospitals across America, particularly in rural areas, are\u200d closing maternity wards because of \u200ba shortage \u200cof babies.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/hospitals-shutter-maternity-wards-amid-falling-birthrates-ef84edca\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a> reported last week that this trend \u2062of shuttering \u200dmaternity \u200bwards has led to a situation\u200b in \u2063which \u201croughly 2.2 million women of\u200d childbearing age lived in so-called maternity deserts in 2020, according to March of \u200cDimes, which it defined as counties without a hospital, a birth center, and\u2063 doctors and\u2063 nurse midwives with experience delivering babies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s just not enough babies to be had,\u201d\u200b said Dr. Michael Cruz, chief\u2063 operating officer of OSF HealthCare in Pontiac, Illinois.<\/p>\n<div class=\"shortcode\">\n<div class=\"lazyload-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"lazyload-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>This has led to rising \u200dmaternal death\u200c rates in the United States, \u200cwhich are currently at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-maternal-mortality-hits-highest-level-since-1965-f9829776?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">highest rate<\/a> \u200d since 1965, and are now higher in America than \u200cin any other\u2062 high-income country. And it only adds to a seemingly irreversible trend of a graying population with fewer and fewer\u2063 children.<\/p>\n<h2><b>Too Many People or Too \u2062Few?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>\u201cFor \u2062the vast majority of \u200dhuman history, the world\u2019s population \u2063was more or less stable; it was growing\u200c but very, \u200bvery slowly,\u201d said Chelsea \u2064Follett, policy analyst at <a href=\"http:\/\/HumanProgress.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">HumanProgress.org<\/a>. Fertility rates were higher, she said, but\u200b until the industrial revolution \u201cmany children did not live to adulthood, many did not even live through their first \u2063year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As\u200d medicine and living \u2063standards improved, mortality rates\u2062 fell and populations increased dramatically. Around the year\u200c 1804, \u200cthe world\u2019s population reached <a href=\"https:\/\/populationconnection.org\/learn\/population-milestones\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a billion people<\/a>. It took another 123 years\u200d for the population to reach \u20642 billion, but it increased rapidly from there, hitting 8 billion in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>As early as 1798, \u200chistorians like Thomas Malthus predicted that the earth would be unable to sustain increasing populations, and that mass starvation and environmental catastrophe was in our future. But \u2062he failed \u2062to take our ability to adapt and innovate into account.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven as the population continues to reach\u2064 new highs every year, poverty and hunger\u200d are reaching new lows, the exact opposite of what the population panic had predicted,\u201d Ms. Follett said. \u200c\u201cAnother reason why\u200b their concerns were ultimately unfounded was the fertility transition\u2062 and the fall in birth\u2064 rates, because as more and more children were\u200c reaching adulthood many people realized that to have two children surviving, they didn\u2019t need to \u2063give birth six times.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The U.N. estimates\u200b that the population will \u200bgrow to 10 billion by 2060, and issued a \u201ccode red for humanity\u201d in 2021, arguing that so many people would cause irreparable harm to the planet.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/white-house-releases-list-of-president-trumps-accomplishments-and-it-is-historic\/\" title=\"White House Releases List of President Trump\u2019s Accomplishments \u2013  And It Is Historic!\">greenhouse gas emissions<\/a> from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people\u200b at immediate risk,\u201d U.N. Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres Guterres <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/08\/09\/ipcc-report-un-climate-report-delivers-starkest-warning-yet.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But many demographers dispute the\u200d U.N. predictions and see a significant\u200b slowing in population growth. They believe the world\u2019s population will \u2063peak sooner, and then begin to shrink. Countries like South Korea, Japan,\u200c Italy, Portugal, Poland, and Greece are already beginning to \u200bsee their populations collapse.<\/p>\n<p>In 1960, \u2062the average woman worldwide <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=hNqCRvDbCVI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">had 5.2 children<\/a>. Today that number \u2064has fallen to 2.4, barely at replacement \u2063level, across the globe. Currently, Ms. Follett said, two-thirds of the world\u2019s \u2063population\u200c resides in countries with fertility rates\u200c below the 2.1 replacement level, including countries like India, Mexico, Brazil, China, and virtually every country\u200b in Europe.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)30677-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">demographic study<\/a> in the\u2063 Lancet, conducted by researchers at the\u2064 University of Washington, predicts that by the year 2100 global fertility will fall to 1.66. They \u200cattribute this decline to current global trends of urbanization, women\u2019s education and workforce participation, and accessibility to birth\u2062 control.<\/p>\n<p>This decline in birth rates leads to what is called the \u201cfertility trap.\u201d For a country to sustain its population, \u200dwomen must\u200c have an average birth rate of 2.1 children over their\u2062 lifetime. Historically, once the fertility rate falls below 2.1, it never comes \u2063back.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S.\u200b fertility \u200brate<\/a> fell to 1.6 in 2020, the lowest rate in America\u2019s history and\u2062 a sharp decline from 3.7 in \u200d1960. <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/statistics-explained\/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Europe\u2019s average fertility<\/a> rate is 1.5; Japan\u2019s is 1.3; and China\u2019s ranges from 1.3 to 1.5, depending on the \u200csource, though some estimates put it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/china-s-population-may-start-shrink-year-new-birth-data-suggest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as \u200blow as 1.15<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-left:0;margin-right:0;max-width:1200px\">\n<figure style=\"width:640px;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto\" class=\"alignnone\"><figcaption>U.S. \u200bfertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 \u200c(source: Federal Reserve).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Lancet study predicts that by the end of this century, China, the \u200cworld\u2019s\u200b most \u200cpopulous country, will have shrunk by 668 million people, losing nearly half of its \u2064current population, and India, the second-most populous, will lose 290 million. China and India together represent about one-third of Earth\u2019s population, such that trends within these two countries are pivotal for the remainder of the world\u2019s population.<\/p>\n<p>Despite\u2062 China\u2019s efforts to\u200d reverse the decline, including eliminating the one-child policy and providing incentives for child-rearing, it experienced \u200bits <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/01\/17\/economy\/china-population-data-2021-intl-hnk\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fifth consecutive<\/a> record-low birth rate in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>In May 2022, Tesla\/SpaceX \u2064CEO Elon Musk <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/elon-musk-says-cant-let-064708205.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stated<\/a> that \u201ccivilization is going to crumble\u201d from the loss of so many people. Mr. Musk\u2063 had previously <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=C33hlfZlJDM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declared<\/a> that \u201cthe biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><b>Countries Try, Fail \u2064to Boost Birth \u200bRates<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Many countries now recognize declining birth rates as a significant problem, but solutions are\u200d proving elusive.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy 2015, 55 countries had declared\u200d an explicit policy objective of raising birth rates,\u201d Ms. Follett said. \u201cAnd yet, despite many\u200d different initiatives to try to \u200calter these trends, there has never been a single case in the modern era of a\u2062 wealthy\u200c country\u200b raising its birth rates \u200cback\u2062 to replacement level\u200b and sustaining it there.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cProbably the best, although kind of depressing place to \u200bstart is Singapore,\u201d said Elizabeth Nolan Brown, \u2062senior editor at Reason and a frequent\u200c writer on\u2062 the subject.<\/p>\n<p>Starting in 2001, she said Singapore began giving citizens cash bonuses for having children. They now start at $8,000 for first\u200d and second children, and\u2062 $10,000 for \u200devery child after that. The country offered tax rebates,\u200c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-birthrate-continues-decline-should-government-encourage-having-babies\/\" title=\"US Birthrate Continues Decline; Should Government Encourage Having Babies?\">paid maternity leave<\/a>, and other subsidies and incentives, but \u200dthe fertility\u200b rate continued to fall, from 1.83 in 1990 to its current rate of\u200d 1.05.<\/p>\n<p>South Korea \u2064made a similar attempt, Ms. Brown said, offering an allowance\u200c equal to $540 per month to parents. The country spent an estimated $200 billion subsidizing childcare and parental leave over the past 16 years, only to see its fertility rate fall from 1.1. to 0.78.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat I found really interesting when researching this \u200dsubject was how paltry the fertility rate \u200creturns are for any of these types of social \u200bwelfare spending,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cJapan has spent massively on family policies like these between 1990 and 2015,\u201d she said. \u201cIt expanded childcare subsidies, paid family leave policies, parental tax credits, and more.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMeanwhile,\u2064 its fertility rate went from 1.5 in 1990 to 1.3 in the early 2000s,\u201d Ms. Brown said. \u201cIt hit 1.2 in 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The lesson \u200bmay be that women cannot\u200d be bribed\u200b into having children, or perhaps the bribes are simply too\u200d small. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/raising-a-child-costs-310000\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brookings Institution<\/a>, raising a child in \u2063the United States today \u2062costs on average more than $300,000.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have suggested a different path in our \u2018Freeing American Families\u2019 report,\u201d Ms. Calder \u200bsaid. \u201cThese reforms have the advantage of reducing the obstacles that\u2063 parents face in a variety of different ways, not solely financial.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She suggests reforming government policies to reduce the cost of parenting and \u2064create more flexible work policies.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPolicymakers have really been focused on band-aid\u2064 policies to boost the \u2064amount of money or resources that families have,\u201d she said. \u201cBut they haven\u2019t been as interested in \u2062the\u200b underlying cost drivers\u2063 and what is causing these increases in childcare prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Relaxing regulatory restrictions on \u2063staffing and zoning for daycare centers could help, she said, together with reforming the au pair program\u2063 to \u200callow au pairs to stay beyond a year or two. Hospital policies that \u200bpush women to have C-sections instead of natural births should also be reconsidered, she said.<\/p>\n<h2><b>\u2018Mothering Harder\u2019<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Among the largest expenses and time commitments for parents come in the area of education. The cost of college has become prohibitive \u200bfor many\u200b families, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-america-grapples-with-plummeting-fertility-rates\/\" title=\"America faces a challenge with declining fertility rates.\">government-sponsored student loan programs<\/a> only green-light more spending by universities, driving costs up further.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, many parents have become uncomfortable with grade school curricula that they believe is pushing progressive racial and gender ideologies on children. As a result, many are opting to pay for private schools o<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, at the Cato Institute, four analysts discussed strategies for the United States to combat declining fertility rates. Governments now fear a world with too few people rather than too many. Vanessa Brown Calder, Cato&#8217;s director of Family Policy Studies, introduced the panel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":887,"featured_media":2008937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2008936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2008936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/887"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2008936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2008936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2008937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2008936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2008936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2008936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}