{"id":1975342,"date":"2023-07-17T16:14:06","date_gmt":"2023-07-17T20:14:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/goldman-slashes-recession-forecast-again-amid-slowing-inflation\/"},"modified":"2023-07-17T16:18:44","modified_gmt":"2023-07-17T20:18:44","slug":"goldman-slashes-recession-forecast-again-amid-slowing-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/goldman-slashes-recession-forecast-again-amid-slowing-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman reduces recession forecast once more due to sluggish inflation."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fgoldman-slashes-recession-forecast-again-amid-slowing-inflation%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1975342&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>Goldman\u2064 Sachs: \u200dOdds \u2062of \u200bRecession Shrink as Inflation\u200b Falls<\/h2>\n<p>Goldman Sachs \u200chas\u200d announced\u2062 that the chances\u200d of\u2064 a\u2063 recession\u200c are decreasing,\u200c thanks to a\u2064 significant drop\u2062 in inflation. \u200cThis \u200dis \u200dpositive\u200c news for \u2062President\u2063 Joe\u2062 Biden&#8217;s\u200d reelection\u2063 campaign.<\/p>\n<p>According to\u200c Jan\u2062 Hatzius, \u200bChief \u2064Economist\u200d at Goldman Sachs, the \u2063probability\u200c of \u2063a \u2064recession\u200c in \u200dthe\u200c next 12\u2063 months \u200chas decreased to just 20%, down from\u200b 25% \u200cthe previous\u2064 month. \u2062This\u2062 revision \u2063comes \u200cafter the financial services \u2062giant had already \u2064lowered its \u2062forecast \u200cfrom \u206235% \u2064in March.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThis remains \u200cslightly above \u2064the \u2063unconditional average \u2062postwar probability \u2063of\u200b 15%\u2014a\u200d recession has occurred \u2063approximately every\u2062 seven years,\u201d\u2062 Hatzius wrote. \u2064\u201cThe\u2062 main \u2062reason\u200b for our\u2063 cut is that the recent data have\u2062 reinforced\u200d our\u200b confidence that\u200d bringing\u200c inflation\u200d down \u2062to \u2063an acceptable \u2063level will not \u2063require \u200ba\u200c recession.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This update on\u2063 recession\u200c odds is welcome\u200d news\u2064 for the\u200c Biden\u2064 administration, which \u2064has \u2064been\u200b striving to \u200chighlight \u200bthe\u200c positive aspects \u2064of \u2062the\u2062 economy\u2063 under &#8220;Bidenomics.&#8221; \u200dThe\u2062 administration has\u200b been \u2062emphasizing\u200c the \u2064lower \u2063inflation rates \u200cand \u200drobust\u2063 job market as \u2063evidence of \u200da\u200b healthy economy. A recession \u200din 2024 would pose a threat \u2062to\u2062 Biden&#8217;s \u2062reelection\u2064 prospects.<\/p>\n<p>The June\u200d consumer price \u200dindex \u2063report \u200brevealed \u200dthat \u200dinflation \u200dhas\u200c dropped\u200b to\u200d a 3%\u200c annual\u2063 rate,\u200c a full percentage\u200b point \u200clower than the \u2063previous \u2063month. \u2063Additionally, \u200bthe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/breaking-u-s-producer-price-index-skyrockets-registers-twice-as-high-as-expected-for-april\/\" title=\"BREAKING: U.S. Producer Price Index Skyrockets, Registers Twice As High As Expected For April\">producer price index<\/a> for June showed inflation at\u2063 just 0.1% for \u2062the \u200cyear.<\/p>\n<p>These reports indicate \u200bthat the \u2063Federal Reserve is making\u2063 unexpected\u2062 progress\u200b in \u2064curbing \u2064inflation, \u200cdespite \u200cthe \u200cstrong labor \u2063market and \u2063<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/goldman-slashes-recession-forecast-again-amid-slowing-inflation\/\" title=\"Goldman reduces recession forecast once more due to sluggish inflation.\">historically \u200blow\u200b unemployment\u2064 rates<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs&#8217; recession\u2063 odds\u2062 are now at\u200d their lowest \u2064since \u200bApril 2022, \u200dwhen the\u2062 firm began \u2064tracking this metric\u2063 as\u2063 the Fed \u2062started\u2062 raising \u200binterest \u2063rates to \u200dcontrol \u2062demand and inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The \u2062Wall\u2063 Street Journal, which has\u200c been conducting a survey\u200b of academic \u200deconomists\u200c on \u2062recession\u200b predictions,\u200c also \u2062reported\u200d a decline in\u2062 recession odds\u200d due to \u2062signs\u2063 of\u200d abating\u200c inflation.\u2064 According \u2063to the survey, there is\u2063 now a 54% \u2063chance \u200dof a \u2063recession \u2064in \u200bthe coming \u200cyear, down from \u200d61%\u2064 in previous surveys.<\/p>\n<p>Most economists \u2064surveyed \u200cattributed their optimism about \u2063the economic \u2062outlook\u200d to expectations\u2063 of continued inflation \u200dslowdown throughout \u200dthe\u200c year.<\/p>\n<p>If \u2063a recession \u200cis avoided, it would be a\u200d significant achievement for Fed Chairman \u2063Jerome Powell, who\u2062 has \u2063expressed some reservations about\u2064 achieving a &#8220;soft landing&#8221; where\u2064 inflation is controlled\u200d without triggering a\u2063 recession.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed \u200bhas \u2064been\u2062 raising\u2063 rates since March\u2063 of last \u2064year,\u200c aggressively pushing\u200d its\u2062 target\u200d rate to \u200b5%\u200b to 5.25%.<\/p>\n<p>While it is highly \u200dlikely that the\u200b Fed will raise rates\u200d by \u2062a quarter of\u2064 a \u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ohio-secretary-of-state-frank-larose-enters-gop-senate-primary\/\" title=\"Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State, joins GOP Senate race.\">percentage \u200bpoint<\/a> at its next meeting \u2062in\u2064 July, \u2063some\u200b investors\u200b and economists \u2063believe this \u200dhike\u200c will\u200c signal the\u200c Fed&#8217;s terminal rate,\u200c despite\u2064 the central bank&#8217;s projection of\u200c two more rate revisions in\u2063 2023.<\/p>\n<p>According\u2064 to\u200b CME\u2064 Group&#8217;s\u2063 FedWatch\u200d tool, investors currently \u200bassign a\u2064 13% chance of another interest \u200drate \u2063hike at the Fed&#8217;s\u2064 September meeting.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cDespite some\u2063 assertions\u200b to the \u200dcontrary from\u2063 more hawkish participants, we \u2064don\u2019t think\u2063 the September meeting\u2062 is truly \u2018live,\u2019\u201d Hatzius \u200dsaid \u200don\u2063 Monday. \u2063\u201cBeyond\u2062 2023, we \u2062think\u2064 the market is \u200conce again building\u200b in too \u200cmany\u200d rate \u200ccuts, \u200dnot \u2063only relative to our \u2063baseline funds\u2064 rate forecast \u2064but also relative to \u2064our\u2064 probability-weighted path.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a \u2062href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/\">Click here<\/a> \u200dto read \u2063more from\u2064 The \u200bWashington Examiner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the chances of a recession in the next year have decreased to 20%, down from 25% last month. This positive development is attributed to the significant decline in inflation, which bodes well for President Joe Biden&#8217;s chances of reelection.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1975343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1975342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1975342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1975342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1975342\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1975343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1975342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1975342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1975342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}