{"id":1967312,"date":"2023-07-08T07:14:02","date_gmt":"2023-07-08T11:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/arizona-braces-for-most-unpredictable-senate-race-an-absolute-dogfight\/"},"modified":"2023-07-08T07:15:32","modified_gmt":"2023-07-08T11:15:32","slug":"arizona-braces-for-most-unpredictable-senate-race-an-absolute-dogfight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/arizona-braces-for-most-unpredictable-senate-race-an-absolute-dogfight\/","title":{"rendered":"Arizona prepares for highly unpredictable Senate race: &#8216;A fierce battle lies ahead&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Farizona-braces-for-most-unpredictable-senate-race-an-absolute-dogfight%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1967312&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>Arizona&#8217;s Senate Race in 2024: A Battle of Uncertainty<\/h2>\n<p>Sixteen months ahead of a major election in one of the nation\u2019s premier battleground states, experts on both sides of the aisle agree on one thing: They have no idea how Arizona\u2019s Senate race in 2024 is going to play out.<\/p>\n<p>The race could feature incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who left her party to become an independent last year, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the progressive likely Democratic nominee who announced his run in January, and Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year. This all could ultimately result in a three-way race in a state that is 34% Republican, 34% independent, and 30% Democratic, according to Arizona&#8217;s data.<\/p>\n<h3>Inside the Pentagon Office Leading UFO Investigations<\/h3>\n<p>Over the last couple of months, the race has been at a standstill. Sinema has not yet said if she is running for a second term. The only Republican in the race, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb announced his candidacy in April but is widely considered an underdog if he were to be in a Republican primary against Lake, who also has not made her intentions to run official. Gallego appears to be the only candidate actively campaigning, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/arizona-braces-for-most-unpredictable-senate-race-an-absolute-dogfight\/\" title=\"Arizona prepares for highly unpredictable Senate race: 'A fierce battle lies ahead'\">holding multiple monthly town halls<\/a> across the state.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cNot much has really happened, and that\u2019s because Lake has essentially frozen the field. We thought she was going to announce two-three weeks ago,\u201d said Mike Noble, chief researcher at the independent Phoenix-based polling group Noble Predictive Insights.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Lake is currently on a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-atf-nominee-promises-to-give-hunter-biden-gun-background-check-form-to-senate-probe-any-crimes\/\" title=\"Biden ATF Nominee Promises To Give Hunter Biden Gun Background Check Form To Senate, Probe Any Crimes\">nationwide book tour<\/a> after releasing her memoir, <strong>Unafraid: Just Getting Started<\/strong>, on June 27. Insiders expect an announcement could come in the fall. The delay has left other potential Republican candidates in limbo as they wait to see what she decides. Former solar executive Jim Lamon, who lost in the GOP primary for Senate last year, has expressed interest in running if no viable challenger to Lake emerges. Blake Masters, the Republican candidate who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) last year, has also considered a run, but those close to him say he does not want to compete against Lake in a primary.<\/p>\n<p>Lake was among one of the most vocal of last year\u2019s Republican candidates who promoted former President Donald Trump\u2019s claims to have won the 2020 election. After narrowly losing her bid for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs, Lake continues to challenge the outcome in state court, claiming widespread irregularities. The Arizona Supreme Court has refused to hear most of Lake&#8217;s claims but sent one part of her challenge to court.<\/p>\n<p>If Lake should decide to run, she\u2019s signaling her messaging for a Senate campaign would be similar to her gubernatorial one.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cYeah, it would be just like the general election. Rooting out election fraud is important to her,\u201d said a senior adviser to Lake, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. \u201cThere were plenty of other focuses in the governor\u2019s race. It&#8217;s just the journalists always ask about election stuff because that\u2019s the salacious stuff they like to talk about.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Over the last few months, Lake has been meeting with donors. She\u2019s made multiple trips to Washington, D.C., and has met twice with the National Republican Senate Committee. While many expect Lake to be the favorite for the nomination if she decides to run, her narrow loss in 2022 leaves some uncertainty about electability.<\/p>\n<p>Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) recently indicated Republicans are still assessing the Arizona Senate race and voiced some hesitation about whether the GOP wants to invest resources. In an interview with CNN in May, he emphasized that Republicans will likely wait to see what happens in the primary before they decide to engage. Insiders say the NRSC recognizes Lake could be difficult to beat in a primary and don&#8217;t want to get involved in one so late in the cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Advisers for Lake said no one from the party\u2019s more establishment wing has attempted to discourage her from running for Senate.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cNo one, actually, and I think that\u2019s a little surprising,\u201d the Lake adviser said. \u201cI think the party is pretty unified behind Kari. She appeals to the establishment wing, the more MAGA wing.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>However, some experts think otherwise. In a three-way race, Noble believes Sinema could have a path to reelection depending on who becomes the Republican nominee.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSinema has no path if there\u2019s a moderate Republican, but she definitely has a chance if it\u2019s one of the hard-right ones like Lake,\u201d Noble said. \u201cIt\u2019s still a tough path, but she still has one, but with a moderate challenger, the numbers just aren\u2019t there.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Polling from Noble Predictive Insights released in February found that in a three-way race between Lake, Gallego, and Sinema, Gallego leads by 8 points. Gallego received 34% support, whereas 26% and 19% of respondents backed Lake and Sinema, respectively. A separate 21% said they were undecided or didn\u2019t know. Noble said these results aren\u2019t necessarily surprising, considering Gallego and Lake are more associated with their parties\u2019 ideological flanks than centrists who have been successful statewide in Arizona.<\/p>\n<p>Since Sinema\u2019s victory in 2018, Arizona has transformed from a solid red state to one of the country\u2019s most competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, President Joe Biden\u2019s victory in the state over Trump helped him secure the White House. In December 2020, Arizona had two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952 after Kelly was sworn in. In 2022, Lake and three other Republicans running for major statewide offices lost. It was the first time Democrats held all <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sheriff-mark-lamb-makes-push-to-reunite-fractured-arizona-gop-in-senate-fight\/\" title=\"Sheriff Mark Lamb aims to unite divided Arizona GOP in Senate battle.\">major statewide positions<\/a> since 1950.<\/p>\n<p>Daniel Scarpinato, a Republican strategist who previously served as former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey&#8217;s chief of staff, said Republicans in the state have a lot of work to do if they want to take back some of these state-wide offices.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cI think it used to be you win your primary and you win the general. I think that in many ways Republicans haven\u2019t come to grips with the fact that that\u2019s no longer true,\u201d Scarpinato said. \u201cPart of it is the messaging, but a lot of it is just general infrastructure. Democrats have been building campaign infrastructure, and I think particularly in 2022, they just ran circles around us.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While Democrats have seen success in Arizona in recent years, the environment is far from solidly blue.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWe have not elected a Kari Lake. We have not elected a Blake Masters. We have elected rather a Joe Biden, than a Donald Trump in the last presidential election. Because of that, it\u2019s hard to define where Arizona stands politically,\u201d said Cesar Chavez, a former Democratic state lawmaker.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Chavez said while there\u2019s uncertainty about the race across the board, he believes Sinema\u2019s decision to leave the Democratic Party is only to her benefit in a state like Arizona: \u201cHaving a pragmatist or moderate like Kyrsten Sinema in a race versus a Republican and a Democrat provides options.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While Arizona\u2019s senior senator has branded herself as an \u201cindependent voice\u201d for the state, she could face some challenges in attracting support from Democrats and independents if she decides to run for reelection.<\/p>\n<p>Gallego continues to be critical of the senator, claiming she\u2019s beholden to lobbyists and business interests. At a town hall meeting in Peoria where Gallego was the keynote speaker last week, both registered Democrats and Independents voiced their concerns with Sinema in her first term.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cI worked to get Sinema elected, went door to door in the Arizona heat. I think she\u2019s misrepresented herself. She\u2019s inaccessible and said she supported things and then did not,\u201d said Macy Evans, a registered independent who lives in Sun City West.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While some have voiced uncertainty about a progressive firebrand winning statewide in Arizona, Roy Herrera, a prominent Arizona election attorney, believes Gallego could be the candidate to thread the needle.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cAuthenticity, I think, is what appeals to voters, and he\u2019s got it,\u201d Herrera said. \u201cI think he\u2019s going to be more open to answering questions, engaging with voters.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Experts on both sides of the aisle still maintain it\u2019s difficult to analyze such an unpredictable race with the potential incumbent running as a third-party candidate.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cBased on my experience in Arizona politics, it\u2019s going to be an absolute dogfight,\u201d said Joe LaBombard, a former Sinema aide. \u201cIt\u2019s just one of those few states where every single statewide election in recent memory that\u2019s at all competitive is decided by the huge number of voters in the state who reject both parties.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PHOENIX \u2014 With a major election looming in Arizona, experts admit uncertainty about the 2024 Senate race. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) may participate, but predictions remain elusive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1967313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[538],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1967312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-washington-examiner"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1967312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1967312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1967312\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1967313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1967312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1967312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1967312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}