{"id":1961095,"date":"2023-06-30T03:02:02","date_gmt":"2023-06-30T07:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-russias-instability-could-throw-off-xi-jinpings-taiwan-invasion-timeline\/"},"modified":"2023-06-30T03:04:20","modified_gmt":"2023-06-30T07:04:20","slug":"why-russias-instability-could-throw-off-xi-jinpings-taiwan-invasion-timeline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-russias-instability-could-throw-off-xi-jinpings-taiwan-invasion-timeline\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia&#8217;s instability may disrupt Xi Jinping&#8217;s plans to invade Taiwan."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-russias-instability-could-throw-off-xi-jinpings-taiwan-invasion-timeline%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1961095&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div class=\"article-content\">\n<p><strong>Russia was apparently on the brink of civil war last weekend as the Wagner Group, a paramilitary force, marched toward Moscow.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A bloody showdown between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner\u2019s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin \u2014 and between Russia\u2019s military and the mercenaries \u2014 was eventually avoided after Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator and Putin ally, reportedly brokered a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/whats-happening-with-wagner-in-russia-d6f6ce7a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">truce<\/a>. This dramatic event will affect not only Putin and Russia but also some of Putin\u2019s allies, especially China.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2-long d-flex justify-content-center\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-873927768\">\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1379703300879-0\" class=\"mb-30\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-e8984a595c0203f9c50c8de7eb17674b fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-e8984a595c0203f9c50c8de7eb17674b\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Before Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced their alliance \u201cwithout limit\u201d by issuing a defiant\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/supplement\/5770\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">joint statement<\/a>\u00a0before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Xi and Putin found a kindred spirit in each other: Both are hostile to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/veronique-de-rugy-will-france-move-further-toward-authoritarianism-this-week\/\" title=\"Veronique de Rugy: Will France Move Further Toward Authoritarianism This Week?\">liberal democratic values<\/a>. Both rule their nations with iron fists and have no problem exporting their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cairn.info\/revue-confluences-mediterranee-2018-1-page-97.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weapons<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/10\/08\/china-is-exporting-surveillance-tech-like-facial-recognition-globally.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">surveillance technologies<\/a>\u00a0to support other oppressive regimes. Both like to present themselves domestically and internationally as strongmen and unapologetic nationalists. And both\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-02\/understanding-the-roots-of-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">justify<\/a>\u00a0their territorial expansion through military conquest as necessary to return their nations to historic glories. Putin\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-02\/understanding-the-roots-of-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">insists<\/a>\u00a0Ukraine has always been part of Russia, and Xi claims Taiwan is a province of China.<\/p>\n<p>After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the Chinese government chose to support Putin rather than join the West in condemning him. China has been helping Russia skirt Western economic sanctions by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/06\/20\/energy\/china-russia-oil-imports-record\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">increasing energy<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3168278\/ukraine-crisis-deepens-china-lifts-all-wheat-import\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">agricultural imports<\/a>\u00a0from Russia. Although Xi\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/china-promises-not-to-sell-arms-to-any-party-in-russias-invasion-of-ukraine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">promised<\/a>\u00a0that China would not send weapons to Russia, The New York Times\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/23\/business\/economy\/china-russia-ammunition.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reported<\/a>\u00a0last week that China did send \u201csmokeless powder \u2014 enough propellant to collectively make at least 80 million rounds of ammunition\u201d to Russia on two unreported occasions last year.<\/p>\n<p>By sustaining Putin economically and militarily, Xi clearly is counting on the Russians to keep the West, primarily the United States, occupied. The war in Ukraine will\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">drain U.S. military resources<\/a>\u00a0while China is gearing up for its \u201creunification\u201d with Taiwan. It is not a coincidence that after Russia invaded Ukraine, China stepped up its\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-08-08\/china-extends-military-exercises-near-taiwan-with-new-drill\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">military preparations<\/a>\u00a0for a Taiwan invasion, and the Chinese military has increased both the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-07-07\/why-china-keeps-sending-warplanes-to-fly-near-taiwan-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">frequency and intensity<\/a>\u00a0of its harassment of Taiwan\u2019s defenses.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-ab5eceab9fecc8962ecf7dfd86cef5e6 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-6\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-ab5eceab9fecc8962ecf7dfd86cef5e6\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Last year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2022\/10\/18\/china-seize-taiwan-plan-blinken\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">acknowledged\u00a0<\/a>that Beijing was \u201cdetermined to pursue reunification\u201d with Taiwan \u201con a much faster timeline\u201d than previously contemplated. Early this year, Gen. Mike Minihan, a four-star Air Force general of Air Mobility Command,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/national-security\/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">predicted<\/a>\u00a0the U.S. would be at war with China in 2025 over Taiwan.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Xi might have initially regarded the Russia-Ukraine War as a strategic window to speed up his conquest of Taiwan. Yet, the Wagner group debacle in Russia last weekend might compel Xi to reconsider his timing of the Taiwan campaign.<\/p>\n<p>The Wagner group\u2019s mutiny and Putin\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-66015624\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">flip-flop messaging<\/a>\u00a0about whether\u00a0Wagner\u2019s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has committed any crime\u00a0shattered Putin\u2019s strong-man image. It exposed that Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has weakened Putin and Russia\u2019s military. Even some Russian elites\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-66015624\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">agreed<\/a>\u00a0that Putin looked weaker after the Wagner rebellion and that Russia might be ready for a \u201cbig change\u201d in its top leadership.<\/p>\n<p>The event in Russia will likely affect Xi in several ways. The longer the Russia-Ukraine War drags on, the weaker Putin and Russia get, and the more foolish and riskier Xi\u2019s \u201cno limits\u201d alliance with Putin seems.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-f7de12c46f36484716321a7613a67728 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-10\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-f7de12c46f36484716321a7613a67728\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>As Wall Street Journal columnist Gerard Baker\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-riddle-mystery-and-enigma-of-prigozhins-coup-attempt-putin-russia-4d6be513?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote<\/a>, \u201cIt is clearer than ever that Xi Jinping has shackled himself to a twitching corpse, one booby-trapped with nuclear weapons but a dead weight all the same.\u201d<\/strong> Xi must be concerned that his alliance with Putin is becoming a liability that his domestic political rivals may exploit while raising doubts about his leadership even among his allies.<\/p>\n<p>The Russian army\u2019s poor performance in Ukraine probably also prompted Xi to be concerned about the Chinese military\u2019s readiness. The People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) hasn\u2019t been battle-tested for over four decades. The last time the PLA fought a major war was against Vietnam in 1979, and the PLA was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/what-china-war-with-vietnam-means-for-its-next-war-2021-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">humiliated<\/a>\u00a0by its much smaller rival.<\/p>\n<p>Suppose the PLA\u2019s invasion of Taiwan turns into a protracted war like the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In that case, Xi has every reason to be concerned that his image as a strong man will be shattered and his control of the government and the military may be weakened, just like what has happened to Putin. A prolonged war over Taiwan may become an opening for either Xi\u2019s allies to turn on him or emboldened political rivals who seek to replace him.<\/p>\n<p>Xi is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/xi-urges-focus-on-china-s-stability-at-start-of-third-term-1.1894540\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">known<\/a>\u00a0to be more obsessed with political stability than anything else. Stability for Xi means he is in firm control of the country and his rule is unchallenged. In the name of maintaining stability, Xi has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/100-billion-has-been-invested-in-self-driving-cars-and-its-been-a-bust\/\" title=\"0 Billion Has Been Invested in Self-Driving Cars - And It's Been a Bust\">devoted enormous resources<\/a>, including building a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/former-trump-intel-official-cliff-sims-calls-out-big-tech-wall-street-for-aiding-communist-chinas-rise\/\" title=\"Former Trump Intel Official Cliff Sims Calls Out Big Tech, Wall Street for Aiding Communist China's Rise\">mass surveillance state<\/a>, to \u201cstamp out the smallest inklings of political discontent,\u201d according to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/stability-maintenance-means-repressing-the-chinese-peoples-spirit-ccp-china-xi-jinping-beijing-dictator-freedom-11669414014\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Chen Guangcheng<\/a>, a Chinese human rights activist who is an exile in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>Xi is unlikely to give up \u201creuniting\u201d with Taiwan because he regards such reunification as one of his legacy projects. Last weekend\u2019s failed Wagner rebellion in Russia, however, may have compelled him to reconsider his timing. Xi understands that if he rushes into war against Taiwan (and possibly Taiwan\u2019s allies, such as the United States) and cannot win quickly, he may trigger instability in China, and his rivals will no doubt exploit his political vulnerability.<\/p>\n<p>The history of the Chinese Communist Party is full of bloody inner-party power struggles. Fighting the wrong war at the wrong time may end up costing Xi\u2019s control of power rather than achieving historic glory for himself and China.<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-3eb01473d3aa10a3b88492da33677f00 fdrlst__b89e9-after-post-content\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-3eb01473d3aa10a3b88492da33677f00\"><\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\">    \t\t\t\t\t   \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last weekend, Russia teetered on the edge of civil war as the Wagner Group, a paramilitary force, advanced towards Moscow. A potential clash between President Putin, Wagner&#8217;s leader Prigozhin, and Russia&#8217;s military was averted when Belarusian dictator Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, intervened.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":536,"featured_media":1961096,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1961095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-federalist"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1961095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/536"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1961095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1961095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1961096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1961095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1961095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1961095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}