{"id":1950696,"date":"2023-06-19T03:23:02","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T07:23:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/foreign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable\/"},"modified":"2023-06-19T03:29:58","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T07:29:58","slug":"foreign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/foreign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable\/","title":{"rendered":"Foreign Policy Blob Finally Acknowledges Inevitable Ukraine Ceasefire"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fforeign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1950696&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div class=\"article-content\">\n<p>On June 5, the day after Ukraine\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/foreign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable\/\" title=\"Foreign Policy Blob Finally Acknowledges Inevitable Ukraine Ceasefire\">long-delayed spring counteroffensive began<\/a>, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass said during an appearance on MSNBC\u2019s \u201cMorning Joe\u201d that a ceasefire in the war, with Ukraine not recovering most of its territory, is inevitable.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass\u2019s position reflects the views of other national security experts who have\u00a0drifted from the dominant narrative about the Russia-Ukraine war, arguing that both military and political necessities will force Ukraine to admit it cannot attain victory and accept a ceasefire.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2-long d-flex justify-content-center\" style=\"margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; \" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-1475853805\">\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1379703300879-0\" class=\"mb-30\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-79c7e06256fd36699cdbe31d1a51fbe1 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-2\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-79c7e06256fd36699cdbe31d1a51fbe1\"><\/div>\n<p>For example, last month, left-wing U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/human-experimentation-and-gene-editing-inside-chinas-race-to-create-genetically-modified-soldiers\/\" title=\"Human Experimentation And Gene-Editing: Inside China\u2019s Race To Create Genetically Modified Soldiers\">foreign policy experts<\/a> and peace activists ran ads in The <a href=\"https:\/\/eisenhowermedianetwork.org\/russia-ukraine-war-peace\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">New York Times<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/assets.nationbuilder.com\/codepink\/pages\/32290\/attachments\/original\/1684783058\/Ceasefire_Ad_The_Hill.pdf?1684783058\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Hill<\/a> calling for an end to the war and peace talks. Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2023\/04\/26\/ron-desantis-ukraine-russia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">said<\/a> in April that a ceasefire was in everyone\u2019s interests. GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/vivek-ramaswamy-bring-back-trumps-trans-military-ban\/story?id=99813290\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">called<\/a> on Ukraine to make \u201cmajor concessions\u201d to Russia to end the war so the U.S. can focus on the threat from China.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Former President Donald Trump has also called for a swift end to the war and has said he will accomplish this in 24 hours if he wins the 2024 presidential election.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration, and many American experts continue to insist that Ukraine can \u201cwin\u201d the war with Russia if the U.S. and our allies provide it with the military aid it needs. Winning, in their view, means Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory and Ukraine takes back all its territory, including Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Ukrainian government refuses to consider peace talks or a ceasefire before it recovers all its territory. Biden administration officials also are hostile to a settlement before a complete Ukrainian victory because they claim this would reward Russian aggression. Instead, the Biden administration continues to say it will provide military aid to Ukraine \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2023\/jun\/8\/long-it-takes-joe-biden-rishi-sunak-vow-long-term-\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">for as long as it takes<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-b266319c9b03977400e4beff9f7a31d4 fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-6\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-b266319c9b03977400e4beff9f7a31d4\"><\/div>\n<p>Those who do not completely support this position are regularly accused of being pro-Putin, anti-Ukraine, and refusing to stand up for freedom. This happened to Trump when he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/05\/10\/politics\/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">said<\/a> in response to a question at a recent CNN town hall on whether he wants Ukraine to win the conflict, \u201cI don\u2019t think in terms of winning and losing, I think in terms of getting it settled so we can stop killing all those people.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass\u2019s dissent from the Biden administration\u2019s approach is significant because as the unofficial dean of the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/2020-was-the-brian-stelter-of-years\/\" title=\"2020 Was the Brian Stelter of Years\">foreign policy establishment<\/a>, his surprising conclusion that the Biden administration\u2019s Ukraine policy cannot succeed carries a lot of weight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass explained his thinking in depth in an April 2023 Foreign Affairs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/ukraine\/russia-richard-haass-west-battlefield-negotiations?utm_medium=promo_email&#038;utm_source=special_send&#038;utm_campaign=web_release_iraq_actives&#038;utm_content=20230605&#038;utm_term=all-actives\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">article<\/a> co-authored with Georgetown University Professor Charles Kupchan, also a U.S. foreign policy establishment leader,\u00a0in which they argue that the West needs a new strategy to get from the battlefield to the negotiating table in the Ukraine War because \u201cthe most likely outcome of the conflict is not a complete Ukrainian victory but a bloody stalemate.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The two experts support providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs for its spring counteroffensive but believe this campaign probably will not change the likelihood of a long-term stalemate. According to Haass and Kupchan, \u201cEven if the West steps up its military assistance, Ukraine is poised to fall well short of vanquishing Russian forces. It is running out of soldiers and ammunition, and its economy continues to deteriorate.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-052dda644e16ae0180815286d7ee5ffd fdrlst__b89e9-paragraph-10\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-052dda644e16ae0180815286d7ee5ffd\"><\/div>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan echoed other concerns by American conservatives about a long-term continuation of the war in Ukraine: that the war is depleting stockpiles of critical weapons and damaging the global economy. They also warned that the Ukraine war might undermine America and its allies\u2019 capability to engage in possible future military actions in other regions \u2014 especially concerning Taiwan and Iran \u2014 and that the Ukraine war is increasingly conflicting with other U.S. global priorities.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan hope Ukraine will be open to pursuing diplomatic options, probably a ceasefire at first after its current counteroffensive ends in about six months. They also believe Putin might consider a ceasefire this fall as a face-saving off-ramp if the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes battlefield gains.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The two experts concede, however, that it may be difficult to convince the two sides to agree to a ceasefire and peace talks. Although Ukraine might try to reject a ceasefire, Haass and Kupchan believe the political reality that U.S. and European military aid cannot be sustained, coupled with possible Russian agreement to a ceasefire, might give Kyiv no choice but to accept.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass also said in his MSNBC interview that he expects the West to put significant pressure on Ukraine by the spring of 2025 to agree to a ceasefire. In my view, that is far too late: If a ceasefire is inevitable, that pressure should start now.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan are not optimistic about a peace settlement even if a ceasefire holds. They concede that Russia may not negotiate in good faith, and Ukraine probably will not drop its demand to return to its 1991 borders. If this happens, they believe Ukraine could become a \u201cfrozen conflict\u201d like those that have existed on the Korean peninsula and Cyprus for decades. Haass and Kupchan acknowledge this is not a desirable outcome but would be far better than the likely alternative \u2014 \u201ca high-intensity war that continues for years.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>These two experts suggested several incentives to promote a ceasefire and peace talks. In exchange for abiding by a ceasefire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this will require a future diplomatic breakthrough that probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the U.S. and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan also propose offering Ukraine some form of formal security pact that falls short of NATO membership, a long-term EU economic support pact, and a timetable for admission to the EU.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Even if both parties agree to a ceasefire, according to the two experts, the West would continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself over the long term. This would help ensure that Russia does not exploit a pause in the fighting to rearm and resume the war.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I think that makes sense. But Haass and Kupchan also propose that the U.S. greatly increase military aid to Ukraine and remove restrictions on the Ukrainian army striking targets inside Russia if Putin violates the ceasefire. Such an escalation is a bad idea that could lead Russia to escalate and possibly use nuclear weapons. A better approach would be to keep pushing for a ceasefire until one is achieved.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan proposed several ways to shore up a ceasefire to make it last. Both sides would pull back their weapons to create a demilitarized zone. Either the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe would send observers (peacekeepers) to verify compliance with the ceasefire and the DMZ.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>These ideas are stunning heresy from gurus of a foreign policy establishment that refuses to consider any outcome for the Ukraine war short of a complete Russian withdrawal. Some conservatives share this view, including Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/06\/04\/politics\/nikki-haley-cnn-town-hall-takeaways\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">insists<\/a> that the U.S. must help Ukraine \u201cwin\u201d to defend freedom and prevent a world war.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan disagree. They are admitting what many conservative experts have been contending: The Ukraine war is not a vital U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/congressional-war-vets-warn-biden-against-shuttering-gitmo\/\" title=\"Congressional War Vets Warn Biden Against Shuttering Gitmo\">national security interest<\/a> and is interfering with other vital U.S. national security interests. They also believe Ukraine cannot win a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/reddit-investors-now-taking-losses-as-gamestop-stock-price-tumbles-sec-investigating-potential-manipulation\/\" title=\"Reddit Investors Now Taking Losses As GameStop Stock Price Tumbles, SEC Investigating Potential \u2018Manipulation\u2019\">long-term war<\/a> of attrition and, as unjust and immoral as Russia\u2019s occupation of Ukraine is, thousands more Ukrainian deaths in an endless stalemate also would be unjustifiable and immoral.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For these and other reasons, Haass and Kupchan are urging the West to adopt a new strategy to end the Ukraine war with a ceasefire and peace talks.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Haass and Kupchan\u2019s analysis lacked an urgent call on Western powers to immediately press for a ceasefire or the suggestion that U.S. military aid to Ukraine should be conditioned on Ukraine\u2019s agreement to seriously pursue a ceasefire and peace talks. But their article represents a shift in the thinking of the foreign policy establishment on the Ukraine war.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Their words may lead many more on the American left and right to speak out on the pointlessness of Biden\u2019s policy on the Ukraine war and to call for a ceasefire and peace talks to end the war.\u00a0Let\u2019s hope Biden will listen.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"fdrlst__b89e9-f2caad1a9e5d55fb9430fd0f238575bd fdrlst__b89e9-after-post-content\" id=\"fdrlst__b89e9-f2caad1a9e5d55fb9430fd0f238575bd\"><\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\">    \t\t\t\t\t   \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On June 5, following Ukraine&#8217;s delayed spring counteroffensive, Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, stated on MSNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Morning Joe&#8221; that a ceasefire in the war is unavoidable, with Ukraine unlikely to regain most of its territory. Haass&#8217;s stance aligns with other national security experts who have also shifted their opinions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2135,"featured_media":1950697,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[10179,21475,13427,5321,5542,8444,4326,6991],"class_list":["post-1950696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-federalist","tag-acknowledges","tag-blob","tag-ceasefire","tag-finally","tag-foreign","tag-inevitable","tag-policy","tag-ukraine"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1950696","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2135"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1950696"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1950696\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1950697"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1950696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1950696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1950696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}