{"id":1923367,"date":"2023-05-03T07:55:15","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T11:55:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-prominent-presidential-historian-on-bidens-chances-to-win-democratic-nomination\/"},"modified":"2023-05-03T07:58:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T11:58:00","slug":"analysis-prominent-presidential-historian-on-bidens-chances-to-win-democratic-nomination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-prominent-presidential-historian-on-bidens-chances-to-win-democratic-nomination\/","title":{"rendered":"Presidential historian analyzes Biden&#8217;s chances for Democratic nomination."},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fanalysis-prominent-presidential-historian-on-bidens-chances-to-win-democratic-nomination%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1923367&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><h2>Presidential Historian Predicts RFK Jr. Has No Chance Against Biden<\/h2>\n<div class=\"post_content\">\n<div class=\"aplayer_app\" data-source=\"https:\/\/vs1.youmaker.com\/assets\/2023\/0502\/961f8ace-3ead-46e6-a03d-b6814f5f13fd\/audio.mp3?length=4300173&#038;duration=358\"><\/div>\n<p>A presidential historian known for his accurate predictions says Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. doesn\u2019t have a chance at beating President Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination.<\/p>\n<p>But that&#8217;s not all. Allan Lichtman, the historian in question, also believes that Biden&#8217;s appearance of being disoriented has nothing to do with his actual ability in leading the country. Lichtman says that Biden has always been that way, for decades and decades, and that it doesn&#8217;t mean he&#8217;s not functioning well or has some kind of impairment.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_2180693\" style=\"width: 164px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript> Alan Lichtman (American University)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>The Keys to the White House<\/h3>\n<p>For more than four decades, Lichtman, who is listed among the 100 most influential experts in politics, has been hailed as an expert on predicting outcomes of bids for the presidency. His fabled system, known as \u201cKeys To The White House,\u201d has correctly predicted the outcomes of all U.S. presidential elections since 1984.<\/p>\n<p>Under the theory, Lichtman applies 13 key factors, or what he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-prominent-presidential-historian-on-bidens-chances-to-win-democratic-nomination\/\" title=\"Presidential historian analyzes Biden's chances for Democratic nomination.\">calls \u201ctrue\/false\u201d conditions<\/a>, to determine the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/was-nixon-the-one-in-1960\/\" title=\"Was Nixon the One in 1960?\">electoral college winner<\/a> of the presidential elections. The keys include the status of the economy, any existing scandal, the charisma of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/biden-will-win-democratic-nomination-hands-down-says-prominent-presidential-historian\/\" title=\"Biden Will Win Democratic Nomination Hands Down, Says Prominent Presidential Historian\">sitting president versus challenger<\/a>, the state of military affairs, and social unrest at the time of the campaigns.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5175395\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript> Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., founder of the non-profit Children\u2019s Health Defense, in Los Angeles, Calif. on Feb. 6, 2023. (York Du\/The Epoch Times)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>Why Biden Will Likely Win<\/h3>\n<p>In applying his theory to the 2024 elections, Lichtman said that Democrats will jeopardize their own party ticket \u201cright off the bat\u201d merely by choosing a candidate other than Biden because it compromises the \u201cincumbency advantage\u201d under his system. By not nominating Biden, it creates \u201can open seat\u201d\u2014another major key in Lichtman\u2019s theory.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe last thing you want is an open seat and a party battle,\u201d he said, \u201cNo White House party has ever survived an open seat and a party battle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In disputing ageists, Lichtman compared Biden to the late President Ronald Reagan who was 77 when he was reelected. Reagan had also drawn speculation during his second term about his mental competency. However, Lichtman pointed out that 76-year-old former President Donald Trump is not too far behind in age than Biden.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5162923\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript> Former President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before his speech at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, on March 4, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>RFK Jr.&#8217;s Chances<\/h3>\n<p>Lichtman said he is certain that the final showdown for the presidency will be another faceoff between Biden and Trump. Lichtman said that \u201cso far,\u201d he also doesn\u2019t see any GOP challengers \u201chaving a chance\u201d at \u201cout rivaling\u201d Trump.<\/p>\n<p>In singling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as somebody he thought had potential to nudge Trump off the ticket, Lichtman said he\u2019s changed his mind after seeing him talk on a national scale outside of state politics. \u201cIt turned out the run is better than the reality,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>For Lichtman, the same goes for Biden\u2019s short-list of challengers, which right now includes Marianne Willamson, former spiritual advisor to Oprah Winfrey, and RFK Jr. Name recognition, said Lichtman, is all the 69-year-old Kennedy has going for him.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s such a minor candidate that he will be a ripple rather than a wave,\u201d Lichtman said. \u201cIn my view, this is just a way for him to spread his bogus anti-vax ideas.\u201d Lichtman added that \u201cif he wasn\u2019t a Kennedy, you wouldn\u2019t be covering his ideas and nobody else would either.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5195095\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript> Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis answers questions from the media in the Florida Cabinet following his State of the State address during a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives, at the Capitol in Tallahassee, Florida, on March 7, 2023. (Cheney Orr\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A presidential historian known for his accurate predictions says Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. doesn\u2019t have a chance at beating President Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination. He also says Biden\u2019s appearance of being disoriented has long been a characteristic, evident from Biden\u2019s times as former vice president and a U.S. senator, and believes it<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":283,"featured_media":1923368,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[19997,3706,8515,4009,25601,9134,3849],"class_list":["post-1923367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times","tag-analyzes","tag-bidens","tag-chances","tag-democratic","tag-historian","tag-nomination","tag-presidential"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1923367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/283"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1923367"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1923367\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1923368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1923367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1923367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1923367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}