{"id":1917615,"date":"2023-04-21T09:27:14","date_gmt":"2023-04-21T13:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-paradoxes-of-post-roe-abortion-politics\/"},"modified":"2023-04-21T09:31:25","modified_gmt":"2023-04-21T13:31:25","slug":"the-paradoxes-of-post-roe-abortion-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/the-paradoxes-of-post-roe-abortion-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"The Paradoxes of Post-Roe Abortion Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">12<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthe-paradoxes-of-post-roe-abortion-politics%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1917615&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div>\n<p><em>In many of the 50 states, and ultimately in Congress, the overturning of <\/em>Roe<em> would probably ignite one of the most explosive political battles since the civil rights movement, if not the Civil War.\u00a0<\/em>\u2014Jeffrey Rosen, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/magazine\/archive\/2006\/06\/the-day-after-roe\/304882\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Day After Roe<\/a>,&#8221; The <em>Atlantic, <\/em>June 2006.\t<\/p>\n<p>Rosen was 16 years ahead of schedule. Not only was his essay on the political and legal consequences of overturning <em>Roe <\/em>v. <em>Wade<\/em> prescient. Its speculative insights apply to today\u2019s post-<em>Roe <\/em>world.<\/p>\n<p>The lengthy and complex piece defies summary. It demands a fair reading. One of its major arguments is that the electorate\u2019s view of abortion has long been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/research-products\/report\/attitudes-about-abortion-a-comprehensive-review-of-polls-from-the-1970s-to-today\/\">consistent<\/a>: As a whole, most Americans support abortion access early in a pregnancy. But they are increasingly willing to entertain restrictions on the procedure as a fetus develops\u2014so long as exceptions are made for cases of rape, incest, and life of the mother. They also oppose taxpayer funding for abortions.<\/p>\n<p>This consensus is reflected in the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003 and in the &#8220;Hyde Amendment&#8221; barring direct federal funding of abortion. Put down the U.S. Code, however, and things become complicated.<\/p>\n<p>State law is lopsided. There are no-restrictions states such as California and New York, and there are no-exceptions states such as South Dakota and Idaho. Many states had &#8220;trigger laws&#8221; banning abortion that went into effect when <em>Roe <\/em>disappeared.<\/p>\n<p>The difference between the federal government\u2019s mushy middle ground and state governments\u2019 extreme landscapes is a paradox of abortion politics in America. And it\u2019s not the only paradox.<\/p>\n<p>For example: If we distinguish between abortion policy at the federal and state levels, so must we also distinguish between direct democracy and representative democracy. The two systems produce divergent outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Wisconsin recently elected a State Supreme Court judge, Janet Protasiewicz, who based her campaign on opposition to the no-exceptions ban that has been in place in her state since June 2022. Yet the same day as Protasiewicz\u2019s big win, voters in Wisconsin\u2019s eighth state Senate district narrowly elected a conservative, Dan Knodl. That gave the GOP a pro-life legislative supermajority. And in November 2022, pro-life senator Ron Johnson (R.) also won a narrow reelection.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s going on? Where voters are given the opportunity to vote up or down, they will vote in favor of abortion access. That\u2019s what happened with the Protasiewicz race. It\u2019s what happened last year with ballot initiatives in six states, including in red states such as Kansas and Montana.<\/p>\n<p>However: When voters are asked to choose between alternative candidates, other factors come into play. Pro-choice candidates might have an advantage if, like Protasiewicz, they turn their contests into pseudo-referenda on abortion or if, like Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D., Va.), they define or expose their opponent as outside the national consensus.<\/p>\n<p>If neither condition applies, then abortion becomes one of many variables in a voter\u2019s electoral calculus. Abortion loses its &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/04\/19\/upshot\/desantis-abortion-ban.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">salience<\/a>.&#8221; The economy, crime, the border, education, health care\u2014these subjects become just as, or even more, important than abortion access. Incumbency and candidate quality matter too.<\/p>\n<p>Those who argue that the GOP is doomed post-<em>Roe<\/em> forget that Republicans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2022\/results\/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&#038;election-painting-mode=projection&#038;filter-key-races=false&#038;filter-flipped=false\">won a majority<\/a> of the House popular vote last year. They overlook the fact that, prior to Election Day, Republican governors Brian Kemp of Georgia, Greg Abbott of Texas, Kim Reynolds of Iowa, and Mike DeWine of Ohio signed into law first-trimester abortions bans\u2014so-called heartbeat bills. And they won reelection by 7 points, 11 points, 18 points, and 25 points, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>You can understand, then, why Florida governor Ron DeSantis (R.) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flgov.com\/2023\/04\/13\/governor-ron-desantis-signs-heartbeat-protection-act\/#:~:text=TALLAHASSEE%2C%20Fla.,%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Governor%20Ron%20DeSantis.\">signed<\/a> a six-week abortion ban, including some exceptions, into law. The cost of thwarting or vetoing the bill would have been much higher than in following the path set by fellow GOP governors. What\u2019s more difficult to gauge is how abortion referenda will interact with non-abortion-focused campaigns. What would have happened, for example, if Protasiewicz had been on the ballot in 2022? Would Ron Johnson still be in the Senate?<\/p>\n<p>We do know that Michigan\u2019s Proposition 3, establishing a state constitutional right to abortion, ran ahead of incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer (D.). And Whitmer won by 11 points. Prop 3 carried the Democrats into a state legislative majority, as well.<\/p>\n<p>It would be in the Democrats\u2019 interests, therefore, to hold referenda in key states next year. Which is exactly what they want to do in states such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/alisondurkee\/2023\/03\/13\/ohio-could-vote-to-protect-abortion-rights-as-latest-ballot-measure-moves-forward\/?sh=86bdd144e018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ohio<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If Democrats use pro-choice referenda to boost turnout for their presidential nominee, it would be a historic irony. Their strategy would be the same as opponents of same-sex marriage in 2004. Back then, initiatives forbidding gay marriage appeared on ballots in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2004\/ALLPOLITICS\/11\/02\/ballot.samesex.marriage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11 states<\/a>. The bans won everywhere. And George W. Bush won in 10 of the 11 states.<\/p>\n<p>Bush\u2019s two Supreme Court appointments occurred during his second term. They became the news hook for Jeffrey Rosen\u2019s <em>Atlantic <\/em>article. &#8220;For what it\u2019s worth,&#8221; Rosen said at one point, &#8220;I wouldn\u2019t bet on Chief Justice Roberts&#8217;s siding unequivocally with the anti-<em>Roe<\/em> forces.&#8221; Indeed. &#8220;Republicans,&#8221; Rosen observed later, &#8220;might get too many Court appointment opportunities to prolong this exquisite balancing act, and <em>Roe <\/em>could indeed fall.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The fall was the result of former president Donald Trump\u2019s three appointments to the Court. Yet Trump, a crucial agent in the demise of <em>Roe <\/em>v. <em>Wade<\/em>, has been critical of the pro-life movement since the 2022 election. Republicans failed to win larger majorities, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/109615636263894025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrote<\/a> in January, because the &#8220;\u2018abortion issue\u2019&#8221; was &#8220;poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on No Exceptions, even in the case of Rape, Incest, or Life of the Mother, that lost large numbers of Voters.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>More recently a (thinly sourced) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2023\/apr\/19\/donald-trump-federal-abortion-ban-stance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a> in the <em>Guardian <\/em>suggests that Trump is opposed to federal abortion legislation such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/articles\/2022\/09\/14\/mike_pence_abortion_bans_more_important_than_short-term_politics_148191.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">15-week ban<\/a> sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and backed by former vice president Mike Pence.<\/p>\n<p>On abortion, as on entitlements, Trump is closer to the center of the general electorate than is Pence, or for that matter DeSantis. What would it mean if Trump, the Republican presidential frontrunner, opposes federal abortion restrictions, or runs against the pro-life wing of his party? Which force would prove more powerful\u2014Trump\u2019s personality or institutional tradition?<\/p>\n<p>I think we know the answer. Trump has modified the GOP before. And there is nothing written in stone that says the Republican Party must be pro-life. When <em>Roe<\/em> was decided, George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford were ambivalent about abortion. First Lady Betty Ford was outspokenly pro-choice. It wasn\u2019t until 1980 that the Republican platform became firmly pro-life.<\/p>\n<p>That commitment lasted for more than 40 years. In 2020, however, there was no GOP platform. And if Trump is the nominee, there probably won\u2019t be one in 2024. Donald Trump is the platform. He\u2019s what you\u2019re going to get if you vote Republican.\t<\/p>\n<p>And by November 5, 2024, Trump\u2019s views on abortion may be at variance not only with the historical legacy of the pro-life movement but with what the movement is saying at this very moment. And pro-life Republicans could well vote for him anyway. And he could well win a second term. In which case, not only would Donald Trump be partly responsible for ending <em>Roe.<\/em> He also would end up fundamentally revising the alliance between the pro-life movement and the GOP. On his terms.<\/p>\n<p>Jeff Rosen didn\u2019t see <em>that<\/em> coming.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In many of the 50 states, and ultimately in Congress, the overturning of Roe would probably ignite one of the most explosive political battles since the civil rights movement, if not the Civil War.\u00a0\u2014Jeffrey Rosen, &#8220;The Day After Roe,&#8221; The Atlantic, June 2006. Rosen was 16 years ahead of schedule. Not only was his essay<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":222,"featured_media":1917616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[544],"tags":[4310,24802,5894,10391],"class_list":["post-1917615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-free-beacon","tag-abortion","tag-paradoxes","tag-politics","tag-post-roe"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/222"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1917615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1917616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1917615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1917615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1917615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}