{"id":1911576,"date":"2023-04-08T01:25:46","date_gmt":"2023-04-08T05:25:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-would-run-out-of-missiles-in-a-week-in-two-front-conflict-war-game-analysis\/"},"modified":"2023-04-08T01:26:56","modified_gmt":"2023-04-08T05:26:56","slug":"us-would-run-out-of-missiles-in-a-week-in-two-front-conflict-war-game-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/us-would-run-out-of-missiles-in-a-week-in-two-front-conflict-war-game-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"US Would Run Out of Missiles in a Week in Two-Front Conflict: \u2018War Game\u2019 Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">30<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fus-would-run-out-of-missiles-in-a-week-in-two-front-conflict-war-game-analysis%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1911576&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div class=\"post_content\">\n<div class=\"aplayer_app\" data-source=\"https:\/\/vs1.youmaker.com\/assets\/2023\/0407\/afba980c-a13e-445c-b8a3-08fb08240a32\/audio.mp3?length=11484045&#038;duration=957\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Institutional think-tanks such as the Washington-based Center for Strategic &#038; International Studies (CSIS) routinely scrutinize data in \u201cwar game\u201d analyses that alert Pentagon planners of projected stresses and shortfalls across varying conflict scenarios.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, with Ukraine receiving weapons, munitions, and financial support from more than 50 nations in fighting off Russia\u2019s February 2022 invasion, a strata of supply chain strains are vexing Western European and American efforts to meet Kyiv\u2019s demand for such basics as bullets and bombs.<\/p>\n<p>Decades after the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States, its NATO partners, and its allies across the globe, are racing to revitalize a defense industrial base that had contracted and retooled as part of the \u201cpeace dividend\u201d that followed the conclusion of the Cold War.<\/p>\n<p>The United States, NATO, and the European Union (EU) are using lessons learned in Ukraine to beef up defense production with an array of strategies such as joint-procurement, multi-year funding, \u201cinter-operability\u201d standardization, and coordinated specialization to \u201cincentivize\u201d private industry to groove into a \u201cwar economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These initiatives will take years to fully synchronize to sustain Ukraine in what most analysts now project will be a sustained high-intensity war of logistics, supplies, and attrition not seen in Europe since World War II.<\/p>\n<p>While Russia is the pressing, immediate threat to NATO and the EU, it is not the top \u201cpacing challenge\u201d for the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies such as Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.<\/p>\n<p>That top priority is the People\u2019s Republic of China, which has aggressively modernized its expanding military the last two decades, amassing a 400-ship navy, building bases on disputed South China Sea islands, and threatening to invade Taiwan.<\/p>\n<p>If a shooting war between the PRC and United States erupts while Ukraine remains intensely engaged with Russia, \u201cwar game\u201d analyses, such as those conducted by CSIS, question whether America\u2019s defense industrial base can independently produce enough firepower fast enough to keep its forces in the fight.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3786578\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2021\/04\/22\/us-military-missiles-1200x828.jpg\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript><\/figcaption><\/a> U.S. Navy launches a Sea Sparrow long-range missile from the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) during an exercise in the Pacific Ocean.\u00a0 (Photo by Jordon R. Beesley\/U.S. Navy via Getty Images)<\/figure>\n<h2>US Industry Not Ready for Two-Front War<\/h2>\n<p>During a four-hour series of Transatlantic Defense forums on April 5, CSIS Transnational Threats Project Director Seth Jones said in \u201cwar game\u201d scenarios where the United States is confronted with supplying Ukraine in a high-intensity war against Russia\u2014never mind direct NATO engagement\u2014while simultaneously fighting an Indo-Pacific war against the PRC, the demand \u201cfor munitions, particularly long-range missiles\u201d could quickly outpace supply.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, Jones said, \u201cWe run out \u2026 in a week or so.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think the results [of \u2018war game\u2019 projections] are wrong. If we are in that kind of fight, it is going to go fast,\u201d said U.S. Navy Admiral Christopher Grady, the vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledging that ramping up defense production \u201cis a very real challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Grady said the Pentagon, NATO, EU, and Indo-Pacific allies are re-examining and adjusting defense production using the Ukrainian \u201cshell rate\u201d of 7,000 expended 155mm artillery rounds a day as the standard projected need.<\/p>\n<p>That rate of expenditure far exceeds projections, he said, before noting planners typically miss the mark in forecasting munitions expenditures in combat.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bigger issue is we always underestimate how much we are going to shoot,\u201d Grady said, especially with the liberal use of \u201cguided munitions\u201d in relatively low-tech conflicts against non-nation terrorist groups in the Middle East and North Africa where \u201cwe\u2019re shooting Hellfires [missiles] at guys on motorcycles; pretty expensive weapon for that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Pentagon is revamping its procurement schedules for weapons systems and munitions based on Ukraine, which provides a \u201csanguine, realistic analysis of what our needs will be,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>A key component for the United States in preparing for a war with the PRC is NATO and EU member nations\u2014most but not all the same countries\u2014increasingly assuming more munitions production capacity in a \u201cwhole of Europe\u201d approach to confronting Russia.<\/p>\n<p>That will allow American industry to restock U.S. arsenals and stockpiles for a storm brewing on an ever-nearing horizon.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf Russia is the hurricane,\u201d said French Navy Vice Admiral Herv\u00e9 Bl\u00e9jean, director general of EU\u2019s military staff and Ukraine assistance mission, \u201cChina is climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3379012\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2020\/06\/06\/ET-navy6-1200x808.jpg\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript><\/figcaption><\/a> The USS Ohio (SSGN 726) in dry-dock at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard in Bremerton, Wash., one of six U.S.-based shipyards that build and refurbish warships, down from 25 decades ago. (Photo by Jason Kaye, PSNS &#038; IMF photographer)<\/figure>\n<h2>Paying\u2019 for the \u2018Peace Dividend\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>When asked if America has the defense industrial base right now to sustain forces in a two-front war, former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment in the Trump administration Ellen Lord replied with an emphatic, \u201cWe have not.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a serious problem, she said, but by recognizing it as an issue, there\u2019s an opportunity for \u201cconstructive collaboration\u201d to simplify and speed weapons and munitions production.<\/p>\n<p>That process has begun with the \u201cfragility of the industrial base\u201d exposed by \u201cthe Ukrainian challenge,\u201d Grady said.<\/p>\n<p>There are three \u201ccontributing factors\u201d constraining U.S. defense production that must be addressed, he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe first is the contraction of the industrial base,\u201d Grady said, noting a quarter century ago there were 25 U.S. shipyards qualified to build and refurbish warships and \u201cwe\u2019re now down to six.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When it comes to weapons development and munitions productions, he said, the post-Cold War \u201cpeace dividend\u201d contraction often means the military is reliant on \u201ca single source in the supply chain.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The second factor, Grady said, \u201cis the complexity of what we build. In World War II, [U.S. shipyards] were pumping out a Liberty ship every three days. You are not going to do that\u201d with, say, a contemporary submarine.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThird is \u2018just-in-time\u2019\u201d deliveries of materials by contractors still operating in a \u201cphase zero peacetime mode,\u201d he said. While that guarantees a \u201cgood profit margin\u201d it cannot continue \u201cin the fight that we see now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Grady said the \u201c21st century foundry\u201d must \u201cbe one that can surge\u201d to meet sudden demand. To have that capacity, the U.S. must \u201cincentivize\u201d private capital to flow into \u201ca larger, hardened industrial base with allies and partners.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Lord cited regulatory issues and \u201csupply chains that typically go six, seven deep\u201d with different suppliers contributing different weapons systems components.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need to focus on a few things and work on them,\u201d said Lord, a former Textron Systems CEO and National Defense Industrial Association chair who is now a consultant with Washington-based Chertoff Group.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need to collaborate with allies to understand where we are sole-sourced, where we have non-partners and non-allies supplying us, and where we could pool [production] and start divvying it up,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>There are also cultural issues to contend with, she said. \u201cThe trades here in the United States\u201d are undermanned because of an attitude that \u201cit is not as honorable to be an electrician, a carpenter, a pipe-fitter\u201d as it is to be a white-collar professional, she said.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, Grady agreed. \u201cTo maintain an industrial base that has the right numbers of artisans to create these systems at speed,\u201d he said, \u201cis going to be a challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4454117\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2022\/05\/1.tagreuters.com2022binary_LYNXNPEI4708O-FILEDIMAGE-1200x800.jpg\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><\/noscript><\/figcaption><\/a> Javelin anti-tank missiles on an assembly line as President Joe Biden tours a Lockheed Martin weapons factory in Troy, Ala., in May 2022. (REUTERS\/Jonathan Ernst)<\/figure>\n<h2>What Can Be Done ASAP<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re too slow. How do we go faster?\u201d Grady asked before answering his own question about the Pentagon\u2019s procurement process. \u201cWe have to be a good customer. We have to have communication with the industry\u201d to \u201cleverage adaptive acquisition\u201d with steady stockpile-building.<\/p>\n<p>That would require \u201ca clear strategy\u201d that current procurement practices don\u2019t always demonstrate, Lord said, noting that the Pentagon must communicate with industry that it is open to multi-year contracts necessary for manufacturers to invest in retooling production lines.<\/p>\n<p>There is an \u201curban myth\u201d among manufacturers that \u201cthe Hill will not allow us to do multi-year\u201d orders, she said.<\/p>\n<p>Assistant Secretary of Defense Deborah Rosenblum said the Department of Defense emphasizes long-range production contracts in its $863 billion Fiscal Year 2024 budget request to induce more bids.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou need a clear demand signal over a span of years to drive that capacity and capability,\u201d Rosenblum said. \u201cWe in the U.S. have gotten away from funding any type of surge capacity. We need to pick a couple of things and have a clear demand cycle and get the contracts going<span style=\"color: #000000;\">. Putting contracts on the streets; that builds capacity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u201cIndustry will respond quick when contracts are let,\u201d Lord said. \u201cBut we got to pick winners and we got to get going.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rosenblum said one dynamic, or \u201ccultural shift,\u201d that is improving proficiency is a unified DOD-wide approach rather than \u201ceach service dealing with a set of supply challenges or workforce challenges\u201d independently that lead to \u201cinadvertently cannibalizing ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bill Lynn, a former DOD comptroller who served as U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense during the Obama administration and Under Secretary of Defense during the Clinton administration, said the Pentagon needs to clarify four o<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Institutional think-tanks such as the Washington-based Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies (CSIS) routinely scrutinize data in \u201cwar game\u201d analyses that alert Pentagon planners of projected stresses and shortfalls across varying conflict scenarios. Right now, with Ukraine receiving weapons, munitions, and financial support from more than 50 nations in fighting off Russia\u2019s February 2022 invasion<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":509,"featured_media":1911577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[543],"tags":[7428,5237,6528,7443,23800,6696,3912],"class_list":["post-1911576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-epoch-times","tag-analysis","tag-conflict","tag-game","tag-missiles","tag-two-front","tag-war","tag-week"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1911576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/509"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1911576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1911576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1911577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1911576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1911576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1911576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}