{"id":1810717,"date":"2023-01-19T15:04:29","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T20:04:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1810717"},"modified":"2023-01-19T15:12:29","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T20:12:29","slug":"desantis-crushes-trump-wait-trump-smashes-desantis-polls-are-useless-nowadays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/desantis-crushes-trump-wait-trump-smashes-desantis-polls-are-useless-nowadays\/","title":{"rendered":"DeSantis Crushes Trump! Wait, Trump Smashes DeSantis! Polls Are Useless Nowadays"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdesantis-crushes-trump-wait-trump-smashes-desantis-polls-are-useless-nowadays%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1810717&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47-->\n<p>Two polls with totally different results were released in just a few days.<\/p>\n<p>One concluded that President Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump easily in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup. However, he also predicted that Biden would lose to Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida.<\/p>\n<p>The WPA Intelligence <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/fl0cgddrxa28ob8\/CfG_JanuaryNational_MQ_23010942.pdf?dl=0\">survey<\/a> The January 13th release found that Trump would be defeated by Biden 49% to 41% and DeSantis 42% to 45%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>A Morning Consult is available a few days later <a href=\"https:\/\/morningconsult.com\/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker\/\">poll<\/a> In a hypothetical GOP primary matchup, Trump had a 17-point advantage over DeSantis. The poll, released Wednesday, showed Trump with 48% compared to DeSantis\u2019 31%.<\/p>\n<p>The polls are all over the place \u2014 just take a look at the collection of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/latest_polls\/2024\/\">surveys<\/a> Real Clear Politics.\u00a0Of course, there are still 656 days until Election Day 2024, so it\u2019s understandable.<\/p>\n<p>However, national surveys on politics have seen a decline in popularity over the past few election cycles. There are many reasons why this is happening, but two are the most important: 1) Many pollsters insist on calling landlines and millions of Americans have long since moved away from them, and 2) many people don&#8217;t talk openly about their political views.<\/p>\n<p>ABC News calls Joe Blough from Topeka in Kansas to discuss 2024. If Joe\u2019s a conservative, he might decide not to play along at all, or he might mute his real beliefs and come across as more of an undecided. And if Joe\u2019s got only a cell phone, he might not get a call at all.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s more, pollsters often skew the numbers of those surveyed. A poll could take data from 36% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 35% self-described Independents. This can also lead to false findings.<\/p>\n<p>In 2016, the polls proved to be largely wrong. They were close in the popular vote but they missed the mark in swing states like Florida and North Carolina that tilted Trump&#8217;s Electoral College.<\/p>\n<p>Pew Research, which produces some very accurate polls, took this survey. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/methods\/2021\/03\/02\/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling\/\">look<\/a> The accuracy of the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMost preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden\u2019s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not,\u201d Pew wrote. These problems led to some commentators to argue that \u201cpolling is irrevocably broken,\u201d Pollsters should not be trusted or respected \u201cthe polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Pew also identified a serious problem in polls. In 2020, only 67% of eligible voters voted, while the other 80 million Americans did not. But surveys usually just poll Americans, with no concern on whether they\u2019ll actually cast a ballot.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[N]early all of Pew Research Center\u2019s public opinion polling on issues is conducted among the general public and not just among voters. Nonvoters make up a sizable minority of general public survey samples. In our 2020 post-election survey, nonvoters were 37% of all respondents (8% were noncitizens who are ineligible to vote and the rest were eligible adults who reported not voting).\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s entirely possible that the same forces that led polls to underrepresent Trump voters would lead to the underrepresentation of Republicans or conservatives among nonvoters. Thus, we need to produce two versions of the nonvoting public to go along with our two versions of the voters,\u201d Pew.<\/p>\n<p>So take every poll with a grain of salt \u2014 or a whole shakerful. The methodology is getting weaker.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views expressed in this piece are the author\u2019s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Joseph Curl is a 35-year veteran of politics, having served 12 years as White House correspondent in a national newspaper. For four years, he was the Drudge Report&#8217;s a.m. editor. Send tips to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailywire.com\/cdn-cgi\/l\/email-protection\" class=\"__cf_email__\" data-cfemail=\"264c495543564e4553544a6642474f4a5f514f54430845494b\">[email\u00a0protected]<\/a> Follow him @josephcurl on Twitter<\/p>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In just a matter of a few days, two polls came out with completely different findings. One found that President Joe Biden would easily defeat former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup, but also found that Biden would lose if he faced Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The WPA Intelligence survey released on &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":1743149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[541],"tags":[13127,10313,6202,4980,15637,15638,15636,3634,8005,6195],"class_list":["post-1810717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-daily-wire","tag-useless","tag-crushes","tag-daily","tag-desantis","tag-nowadays","tag-polls","tag-smashes","tag-trump","tag-wait","tag-wire"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/159"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1810717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1743149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1810717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1810717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1810717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}