{"id":1810309,"date":"2023-01-19T07:05:44","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T12:05:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1810309"},"modified":"2023-01-19T07:09:16","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T12:09:16","slug":"china-will-lose-a-billion-people-by-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/china-will-lose-a-billion-people-by-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"China Will Lose a Billion People By 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fchina-will-lose-a-billion-people-by-2100%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1810309&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47-->\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Chinese-Economy.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\"   style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n<p>China has announced Tuesday its first <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/01\/17\/opinion\/china-population-economy.html\">population decline<\/a> Since 1961. According to the official National Bureau of Statistics, 9.56 million people were born last year and 10.41 millions died.\n<\/p>\n[embedded content]\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Subscribe to our YouTube Channel <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@19fortyfive\/\"><span>Here<\/span><\/a><span>. 19FortyFive publishes original videos every day.)<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/01\/17\/1149453055\/china-records-1st-population-fall-in-decades-as-births-drop\">total population<\/a> Officials announced that the 2022 population would be 1.412 billion. This is 850,000 less than in the previous year.\n<\/p>\n<p>The country\u2019s long demographic slide has begun. By the end of this century, China\u2019s population will be about a third of what it is today. In the absence of disease or war, the projected decline will be the greatest in history.\n<\/p>\n<p>There are indications that Chinese officials have been substantially overstating China\u2019s population. The population, according to the University of Wisconsin-Madison\u2019s Yi Fuxian writing in the middle of last year, was 1.28 billion, not the official 1.41 billion. China\u2019s population began to decline, Yi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07?\">wrote<\/a>In 2018, He pointed out that Beijing\u2019s demographic numbers have not been consistent with other data, official and unofficial.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, the country is set for a sharp drop.\n<\/p>\n<p>For example: <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\">projections issued by the U.N.\u2019s Department of Economic and Social Affairs<\/a>These are amazing. The organization\u2019s World Population Prospects 2022, which is roughly based on Beijing\u2019s official figures, shows a high variant estimate for 2100 of 1.153 billion people. The median variant is 766.67 million.<\/p>\n<p>The low variant\u2014the estimate that will be closest to the mark from all indications\u2014is 487.93 billion. The U.N.\u2019s low number has dropped. According to 2019 estimates, it was 684.05million.\n<\/p>\n<p>Even the 2022 low version looks too high. Demographers at Xian Jiaotong University, late 2021 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/science\/article\/3150699\/chinas-population-could-halve-within-next-45-years-new-study\">estimated<\/a> that China\u2019s population could fall by half within 45 years, assuming the country maintained a Total Fertility Rate\u2014generally the average number of children per female of child-bearing age\u2014of 1.3.\n<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s TFR, by contrast, was 1.18 last year, the lowest in the world\u2019s ten most populous nations. Yi thinks it could have been as low at 0.9 in 2020. If Yi is right, it was lower than last year&#8217;s TFR.<\/p>\n<p>However, the TFR will likely drop in the coming years regardless of what it is today. A survey by the Communist Youth League found that 44% of urban Chinese women aged 18-26 were female. <a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/survey-found-almost-half-chinas-061516907.html\">do not intend to get married<\/a>. That\u2019s significant because an unmarried female cannot obtain a required permit to have a birth.\n<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s demographic problems go beyond women rejecting cultural imperatives to find a husb. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/the-chinese-communist-party-has-surrendered-to-covid-19\/\">Pervasive pessimism<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/china-is-facing-a-covid-19-nuclear-winter-the-ccp-cant-stop-it\/\">economic decline<\/a> They also impact the willingness of couples and their desire to have children.\n<\/p>\n<p>Some people don&#8217;t believe China is in crisis yet. \u201cThey are not in a doomsday scenario right away,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-64300190\">said<\/a> Paul Cheung, Singapore\u2019s former chief statistician, to the BBC. China, according Cheung, has \u201cplenty of manpower\u201d  \u201ca lot of lead time.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>All this is true, because demographic changes occur over decades, but Beijing\u2019s plans to reverse population changes have been noticeably unsuccessful\u2014as are those of most governments. \u201cThe measures taken to boost birth rates have been far too little and too late, and were completely overwhelmed by the impact of Covid Zero on birth rates,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-01-10\/china-s-population-likely-shrank-in-2022-as-births-hit-new-low\">said<\/a> Bloomberg News: Christopher Beddor, Gavekal Dragonomics \u201cThe core issue is that there\u2019s only so much policy can accomplish in this realm, because declining birth rates are driven by deep structural factors.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>Beijing abandoned its One-Child Policy, and switched to its TwoChild Policy at the start of 2016. In 2021, China adopted a Three-Child Policy. However, there has been no increase in births. In fact, last year witnessed the lowest birth rate in the history of the People\u2019s Republic of China.\n<\/p>\n<p>As the official <em>China Daily<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/global.chinadaily.com.cn\/a\/202012\/04\/WS5fc97b51a31024ad0ba99b06.html\">stated<\/a> December 2020 \u201cthe trends are irreversible.\u201d If \u201cthe true power of China\u2019s rise is a powerful reproductive force\u201d\u2014as many of its people believe\u2014then the magnificent Chinese state is relentlessly heading in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/last-generation-chinas-youth-rallied-090029327.html?guccounter=1\">\u201cSorry, we are the last generation, thanks!\u201d<\/a> was a popular\u2014and censored\u2014hashtag in China last May.\n<\/p>\n<p>So, why is anyone outside of China so concerned about Chinese demography.\n<\/p>\n<p>Brahma Chaellaney has the answer. \u201cBelieving China has a narrow window of strategic opportunity to modify the global order in its favor before it faces a demographic crisis, stalled economic growth, and an unfavorable global environment, Xi is taking major risks,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/chellaney\/status\/1615297428697272320?s=61&#038;t=-DC1xNf9X294LmStQuHe0A\">tweeted<\/a> On Tuesday, the famous Indian strategist.\n<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/07\/chinas-economy-is-now-in-free-fall\/\">Xi Jinping<\/a> You may be right \u201cthe East is rising and the West is declining\u201d\u2014a money line from his speeches\u2014but that view will be exceedingly hard to maintain as people begin to think of China as an irreversibly declining society. He will rush to get his goals. \u201cChinese dream.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>This could also mean that Xi may have a low threshold for risk and take others by surprise.\n<\/p>\n<p>India is one example. China made another offensive against Arunachal Pradesh last month with a large-scale land incursion. China must dismantle India before it is too late, argue some Chinese thinkers.\n<\/p>\n<p>Incidentally, many believe India\u2019s population has just overtaken China\u2019s. Yi, a University of Wisconsin-Madison scholar thinks India overtook China last year.\n<\/p>\n<p>Xi surely knows that India will have almost a billion more people than China by the time India\u2019s population levels off, sometime in the middle of this century.\n<\/p>\n<p>China isn&#8217;t about to be jealous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/is-india-getting-ready-for-a-war-with-china\/\">India<\/a>\u2014or others, for that matter\u2014alone.\n<\/p>\n<p>MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2023\/01\/forget-joe-biden-is-donald-trump-in-cognitive-decline\/\">Is Donald Trump a \u2018Cognitive Mess\u2019?\u00a0<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p>MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2023\/01\/joe-biden-2024-age\/\">Should Joe Biden Really Run in 2024?<\/a>\u00a0\n<\/p>\n<p>MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/\">Ron DeSantis May Peak Too Early <\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p><em>Gordon G. Chang is a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor and the author of The Coming Collapse of China as well as The Great U.S. China Tech War. Follow him on twitter <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GordonGChang\">@GordonGChang<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China has announced Tuesday its first population decline Since 1961. According to the official National Bureau of Statistics, 9.56 million people were born last year and 10.41 millions died. [embedded content] Subscribe to our YouTube Channel Here. 19FortyFive publishes original videos every day.) China\u2019s total population Officials announced that the 2022 population would be 1.412 &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1810312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[13848,5458,4501,8870,4370,3819],"class_list":["post-1810309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report","tag-13848","tag-bongino","tag-china","tag-lose","tag-people","tag-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1810309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1810312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1810309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1810309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1810309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}