{"id":1803072,"date":"2023-01-12T06:50:26","date_gmt":"2023-01-12T11:50:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1803072"},"modified":"2023-01-12T06:53:08","modified_gmt":"2023-01-12T11:53:08","slug":"can-sanctions-punish-russia-enough-to-stop-the-ukraine-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/can-sanctions-punish-russia-enough-to-stop-the-ukraine-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Sanctions Punish Russia Enough to Stop the Ukraine War?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcan-sanctions-punish-russia-enough-to-stop-the-ukraine-war%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1803072&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47-->\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Ukraine-Tank-T-62.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\"   style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n<p>In response to Russia\u2019s invasion of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/tag\/ukraine\/\">Ukraine<\/a>Economic sanctions have been imposed by the G7, 50 countries and other organizations <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/tag\/russia\/\">Russia<\/a>. There are two main types: financial and real. Real sanctions are restrictions on Russia&#8217;s trade and the cancellation of its status as most-favored nation. Financial sanctions are a ban on Russian assets being held abroad and prevent cross-border settlement of funds.\n<\/p>\n<p>Although not a part of sanctions per se, Western companies\u2019 withdrawal from Russia triggered by sanctions has had a real impact. Due to the dire economic outlook under sanctions, substantial outflows of skilled capital have also occurred in Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>Real sanctions are tangible because economic prosperity is dependent on real variables like consumption and employment. But since any trade \u2014 domestic or international \u2014 benefits both the seller and the buyer, trade restrictions are a double-edged sword that harms the sanctioners\u2019 welfare as well. This tends to moderate and slow the latter\u2019s actions. Some countries\u2019 refusal to trade with Russia also creates opportunities for others to trade on favourable terms. This opportunistic behavior has given Russia breathing room.\n<\/p>\n<p>As for financial sanctions, the asset freeze affects the wealth of Russian senior officials and oligarchs as well as the Russian central bank\u2019s foreign reserves. This is very easy to put in, since it has minimal cost for the sanctioners and clear damage to the sanctionees. Yet its impact on Russia\u2019s domestic economy is minimal.\n<\/p>\n<p>The sanctions on Russia\u2019s fund settlement exclude Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) network and ban them from accessing the settlement in hard currencies. They would be effective if they hindered real economic activities \u2014 especially trade. However, there are many loopholes.\n<\/p>\n<p>Initial plans for the SWIFT exclusion were to make it a &#8220;freedom&#8221; \u2018financial nuclear weapon\u2019 \u2014 this was a grossly overblown assessment. SWIFT can be used to send international funds transfers as a message application. Even though it can be annoying to exclude, there are other methods of communication that can be used for cross-border fund transfer instructions.<\/p>\n<p>You can circumvent financial sanctions that prohibit access to major financial centers. For example, if Russia\u2019s trading partners accept payments in renminbi, which Chinese exporters and importers will certainly do, Russia can continue to trade.\n<\/p>\n<p>Sanctions were designed to cause enough economic damage to Russia to make it impossible to carry out military operations. Clear economic damage has been done: Russia\u2019s GDP in 2022 is expected to shrink by 3.4 percent. However, the damage is much less than originally thought. President Vladimir Putin\u2019s approval rating continues to be very high, demonstrating that sanctions have not had a strong enough impact on the public to shake their support.<\/p>\n<p>However, this does not mean that sanctions are ineffective. They will likely play a greater role in the future.\n<\/p>\n<p>It all starts with the principle of that \u2018changing the status quo by force\u2019 It is unacceptable, and the only way to end the conflict is for Ukraine regain all of its territories. Russia will be completely devastated if the war ends in this manner.\n<\/p>\n<p>Although this would be a positive outcome from a justice perspective, it is highly unlikely that Putin and his hardline allies would allow it to occur, especially after Russia annexes the Ukrainian territories. Russia faces a grave risk of losing complete control of its weapons and military tactics. This could make the conflict worse and escalate into a war. The global community must find a way for Russia to lose the war before it does. This could even mean that Ukraine has to compromise.<\/p>\n<p>It is crucial to differentiate between the peace accord and the end of war. A truce allows the West to continue sanctions. While their short-term impact has not been as expected, it is clear that sanctions will have a severe effect on Russia&#8217;s economy over the medium and long term. With the withdrawal of Western firms, Russia\u2019s industrial technology has gone backwards substantially. Russia&#8217;s growth potential has been hampered by the loss of valuable human capital.\n<\/p>\n<p>Russians might realize that unless they have a leader who is able to come to terms and accept the West, there is no way forward. This could result in a change of regime in Russia, and allow for the negotiation of an end to the war that is compatible with international justice.\n<\/p>\n<p>An important caveat to this strategy is how Russia\u2019s allies and neutral countries behave under a truce. They will continue to support Russia economically in any way they can, whether it is willingly or not. Just look to the example of North Korea, where a highly autocratic regime has long survived in the face of international sanctions, due in no small part to China\u2019s acceptance of its reign.\n<\/p>\n<p>To avoid creating a \u2018Big North Korea\u2019 out of Russia, it is essential that the West continues diplomatic efforts to mobilise support from neutral countries and, if possible, convert Russia\u2019s allies to the side that opposes military solutions to international disputes.\n<\/p>\n<p><em>Masahiko Takeda is a Senior Fellow in the Australia\u2013Japan Research Centre at the Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In response to Russia\u2019s invasion of UkraineEconomic sanctions have been imposed by the G7, 50 countries and other organizations Russia. There are two main types: financial and real. Real sanctions are restrictions on Russia&#8217;s trade and the cancellation of its status as most-favored nation. Financial sanctions are a ban on Russian assets being held abroad &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1803075,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[5458,8321,3819,4280,5036,6991,6696],"class_list":["post-1803072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report","tag-bongino","tag-punish","tag-report","tag-russia","tag-sanctions","tag-ukraine","tag-war"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1803072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1803072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1803072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1803075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1803072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1803072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1803072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}