{"id":1786318,"date":"2022-12-25T06:09:04","date_gmt":"2022-12-25T11:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1786318"},"modified":"2022-12-25T09:04:45","modified_gmt":"2022-12-25T14:04:45","slug":"this-holiday-indicator-points-to-a-recession-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/this-holiday-indicator-points-to-a-recession-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"This Holiday Indicator Points to a Recession Next Year"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthis-holiday-indicator-points-to-a-recession-next-year%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1786318&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>It\u2019s apparently not a very happy Honda days this Christmas season \u2014 and that could spell trouble for the White House in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019re undoubtedly tired of them by now \u2014 whether it\u2019s Lexus\u2019 \u201cDecember to Remember,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/north-carolina-teenager-wins-major-lottery-way-2nd-job-think-buy-brand-new-chevrolet-silverado\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chevrolet\u2019s<\/a> \u201cRed Tag Sales\u201d or, yes, the \u201cHappy Honda Days\u201d ads, they all blend together. On Dec. 25, outside an implausibly expensive modernist house, in a snowstorm so obviously generated by computers you can almost see the video effects guy hunched behind his MacBook Pro, a husband removes his hands from his wife\u2019s eyes.<\/p>\n<p>There, in the driveway, is a brand-new, specced-out, top-of-the-line vehicle \u2014 with a big red bow on the roof, the luxury SUV curiously not covered in any of the snow falling all around it. A look of gratitude, of surprise instantly washes over the wife\u2019s face, as if to say: <em>Thanks, honey! I\u2019m so glad you made a major financial choice and disguised it as a Christmas gift, one that I absolutely can\u2019t return even if I like the car I already have!<\/em><\/p>\n[embedded content]\n<p>Yeah, so apparently we\u2019re all decadent and doomed. Remember the good ol\u2019 days when Lucy Van Pelt informed Charlie Brown that the commercialization of Christmas was due to it being run by \u201ca big Eastern syndicate\u201d? In the interim, they\u2019ve farmed it out to the folks in Detroit, Japan and Korea, apparently.<\/p>\n<div id=\"in-article-trending\" class=\"in-article-more inner-content\">\n<p>Trending:<\/p>\n<div class=\"in-article-more-right\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/not-accident-kari-lake-expert-testifies-key-problem-42-ballots-caused-chaos\/\" data-type=\"Internal link\" data-type-location=\"in-content-trending\">&#8216;It Could Not Be by Accident&#8217; &#8211; Kari Lake Expert Testifies Key Problem with 42% of Ballots Caused Chaos<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But apparently this <em>works<\/em>, because these ads run year after year, scarcely changed but for the vehicles. Not only that, but it apparently isn\u2019t just to entice regular car buyers to go to the dealership around Christmastime with their spouse to do the sensible thing and pick out a vehicle together.<\/p>\n<p>People do really buy these things as gifts \u2014 and, as a kind of proof, there\u2019s an actual giant bow industry that\u2019s sprung up, so that, even if your house doesn\u2019t look like it was designed by Frank Lloyd Wright or there\u2019s not a CGI snowflake to be seen, you can still recreate the big-red-bow-on-top part of the commercial.<\/p>\n<p>And, if you needed another group of experts to tell you the economy is headed for a for real, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/elon-musk-triggers-wikipedia-founder-5-word-tweet-amid-recession-definition-feud\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">can\u2019t-just-redefine-the-word<\/a> recession in 2023, don\u2019t just ask Wall Street. Ask the giant bow people.<\/p>\n<p>According to a Dec. 20 report in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/amp\/articles\/whos-getting-a-car-for-christmas-ask-the-people-who-sell-giant-bows-11671510567\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a>, things are looking bleak in huge bow-land, as manufacturers \u201creport a steep decline in business this holiday season.<\/p>\n<div id=\"firefly-poll-container\" class=\"one-half\">\n<p>Are we headed for a recession?<\/p>\n<div id=\"firefly-poll-results\">\n<p>\nYes: 98% (55 Votes)\n<\/p>\n<p>\nNo: 2% (1 Votes)\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cAs with many economic indicators of late, the data is mixed. But if weak bow sales are taken as a shiny red indicator, they may foreshadow a drop-off in the number of cars given as gifts this year,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOrders are down 35 percent this holiday season at King Size Bows, which sells thousands of car bows each year to dealerships and individual consumers. That works out to hundreds fewer bows than normal, [said] Amber Hughes, the Costa Mesa, Calif., company\u2019s owner.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Tom Maoli, who owns a Lexus dealer in New Jersey \u2014 repping the company that arguably started this bows-on-cars mess \u2014 said he ordered fewer bows this year because sales of new cars are down.<\/p>\n<p>Now, part of that is based on the consistent inventory problem that\u2019s plagued the auto industry due to supply chain issues. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/chevy-totally-rejects-wokeness-rolls-beautiful-new-american-christmas-commercial-starring-57-bel-air\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New car sales<\/a> will be down significantly from 2021, according to estimates \u2014 13.7 million new cars off lots vs. 14.9 million in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>However, another sign that consumers aren\u2019t necessarily as confident in making a new vehicle purchase is the rise in people buying the car they\u2019ve already been leasing.<\/p>\n<div id=\"in-article-related\" class=\"in-article-more inner-content\">\n<p>Related:<\/p>\n<div class=\"in-article-more-right\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/18-republican-senators-sided-dems-pass-massive-1-7-trillion-spending-bill\/\" data-type=\"Internal link\" data-type-location=\"in-content-related\">Here&#8217;s the 18 Republican Senators Who Sided With Dems to Pass a Massive $1.7 Trillion Spending Bill<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019d be hard to turn around and put a red bow on a vehicle you\u2019ve already had for three years and try to pass it off as something new to someone,\u201d said Tyson Jominy, the vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power.<\/p>\n<p>At least for the auto industry, this spells trouble \u2014 because, yes, it turns out the data show there are some people who really <em>do<\/em> buy cars as presents, which means a huge reduction in giant bow sales, however odd it may seem, is a canary in the coal mine when it comes to a serious economic slowdown.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cReal people \u2014 not just the ones who appear in commercials \u2014 do occasionally buy cars for loved ones as holiday gifts,\u201d the Journal reported.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMr. Maoli figures that roughly 15 percent of holiday-season sales at his dealership are gifts, which is in line with estimates that Lexus says it has heard anecdotally from other dealers over the years. December was the strongest month for car sales from 2010 to 2020, according to an analysis from the research firm J.D. Power. During that period, 9.6 percent of sales occurred in December, and specifically among luxury brands, December accounted for 11.5 percent of sales.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So no, it won\u2019t be a December to remember. The problem <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/6-9-months-jpmorgan-ceo-gives-serious-warning-recession-outlook-united-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">is that 2023<\/a> ain\u2019t looking so hot either \u2014 and not just because of supply-chain issues.<\/p>\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/12\/23\/why-everyone-thinks-a-recession-is-coming-in-2023.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CNBC<\/a> noted in a humbug-esque report issued the day before Christmas Eve, \u201cEconomists have been forecasting a recession for months now, and most see it starting early next year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, when you have high inflation and the Fed is jacking up interest rates to quell inflation, that results in a downturn or recession,\u201d Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, told CNBC.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat invariably happens \u2014 the classic overheating scenario that leads to a recession. We\u2019ve seen this story before. When inflation picks up and the Fed responds by pushing up interest rates, the economy ultimately caves under the weight of higher interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As we know, President Joe Biden\u2019s administration told us all, at first, that inflation was transitory. Then it wasn\u2019t transitory, but it was controllable, and we were, by no means, invariably headed to a recession. Also, we were assured the federal government\u2019s drunken-poker-player spending spree under Biden and his Democratic Congress had <em>nothing to do with record inflation<\/em>, even if pure common sense dictates that was rubbish.<\/p>\n<p>Well, time\u2019s up, folks: Winter has come, and the happy Honda days seem to be over. If only Chuck Schumer could have snuck in a bailout for those giant-bow folks in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/rand-paul-wheels-pelosi-schumers-4000-page-spending-bill-cart-shows-just-absurd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pork-laden $1.7 trillion omnibus<\/a> they shoved through Congress at the last minute. Heaven knows, if any industry needs bailing out right now, it\u2019s them.<\/p>\n<div id=\"author-info-44670\" class=\"author-info inner-content\">\n<div class=\"author-image\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.westernjournal.com\/author\/cillianzeal\/\"><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/static.westernjournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/profile-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"image\"   style=\"display:none\"><br \/>\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-meta-text\">\n<p>Contributor, Commentary<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"author-tabs\">\n<input type=\"radio\" name=\"ff-author-tab-44670\" value=\"summary-tab\" id=\"summary-tab-radio-44670\" checked \/><label for=\"summary-tab-radio-44670\">Summary<\/label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"ff-author-tab-44670\" value=\"more-info-tab\" id=\"more-info-tab-radio-44670\" \/><label for=\"more-info-tab-radio-44670\">More<span class=\"rmation\"> Biographical Information<\/span><\/label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"ff-author-tab-44670\" value=\"posts-tab\" id=\"posts-tab-radio-44670\" \/><label for=\"posts-tab-radio-44670\">Recent<span class=\"rmation\"> Posts<\/span><\/label><input type=\"radio\" name=\"ff-author-tab-44670\" value=\"contact-tab\" id=\"contact-tab-radio-44670\" \/><label for=\"contact-tab-radio-44670\">Contact<\/label><\/p>\n<div class=\"author-tab summary-tab\">\n<p>C. Douglas Golden is a writer who splits his time between the United States and Southeast Asia. Specializing in political commentary and world affairs, he&#8217;s written for Conservative Tribune and The Western Journal since 2014.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"author-tab more-info-tab\">\n<p>\nC. Douglas Golden is a writer who splits his time between the United States and Southeast Asia. Specializing in political commentary and world affairs, he&#8217;s written for Conservative Tribune and The Western Journal since 2014. Aside from politics, he enjoys spending time with his wife, literature (especially British comic novels and modern Japanese lit), indie rock, coffee, Formula One and football (of both American and world varieties).\n<\/p>\n<p>\nBirthplace\n<\/p>\n<p>\nMorristown, New Jersey\n<\/p>\n<p>\nEducation\n<\/p>\n<p>\nCatholic University of America\n<\/p>\n<p>\nLanguages Spoken\n<\/p>\n<p>\nEnglish, Spanish\n<\/p>\n<p>\nTopics of Expertise\n<\/p>\n<p>\nAmerican Politics, World Politics, Culture\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s apparently not a very happy Honda days this Christmas season \u2014 and that could spell trouble for the White House in 2023. You\u2019re undoubtedly tired of them by now \u2014 whether it\u2019s Lexus\u2019 \u201cDecember to Remember,\u201d Chevrolet\u2019s \u201cRed Tag Sales\u201d or, yes, the \u201cHappy Honda Days\u201d ads, they all blend together. On Dec. 25, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1899598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[6962,5458,7496,11730,3816,9524,10069,3819,3686,5734],"class_list":["post-1786318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report","tag-the","tag-bongino","tag-holiday","tag-indicator","tag-next","tag-points","tag-recession","tag-report","tag-this","tag-year"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1786318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1786318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1786318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1899598"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1786318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1786318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1786318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}