{"id":1785560,"date":"2022-12-24T06:01:06","date_gmt":"2022-12-24T11:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1785560"},"modified":"2022-12-24T07:33:55","modified_gmt":"2022-12-24T12:33:55","slug":"elon-musk-2023-recession-will-be-comparable-to-financial-crisis-of-2008-09","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/elon-musk-2023-recession-will-be-comparable-to-financial-crisis-of-2008-09\/","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk: 2023 Recession Will Be Comparable to Financial Crisis of 2008\u201309"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Felon-musk-2023-recession-will-be-comparable-to-financial-crisis-of-2008-09%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1785560&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-elon-musk\">Elon Musk<\/a>, the billionaire CEO of Tesla Motors and Twitter, thinks the next <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-recession\">recession<\/a> will be comparable to the global financial crisis of 2008\u201309.<\/p>\n<p>While speaking during a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=GNypZZZFrXc\">Twitter Spaces discussion<\/a> on Dec. 22, Musk acknowledged that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession and 2023 will result in a \u201cserious\u201d economic downturn.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009,\u201d he said.\u201d I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s gonna be a little worse or a little better, but I think, in my view, is going to be comparable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But he thinks it is shocking that the nation has not had a significant recession in 13 years, suggesting that the United States is \u201coverdue\u201d for one.<\/p>\n<p>In 2009, the U.S. economy contracted by 2.8 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Because the Federal Reserve relies on an \u201cold-school\u201d method of assessing economic data and reacting to lagging indicators, the U.S. economy will be \u201cin for a hot landing,\u201d Musk averred.<\/p>\n<p>Since March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised the benchmark federal funds rate by 425 basis points, lifting the target rate to its highest level in 15 years.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4882325\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2022\/11\/23\/Jerome-Powell-1200x800.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy size-medium wp-image-4882325\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/themes\/eet\/images\/white.png\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Jerome-Powell-600x400-1.jpg\" alt=\"Jerome Powell\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\"   style=\"display:none\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4882325\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Jerome-Powell-600x400-1.jpg\" alt=\"Jerome Powell\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" \/><\/noscript><\/figcaption><\/a> Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference in Washington, on Nov. 2, 2022. (Elizabeth Frantz\/Reuters)<\/figure>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s kind of blowing my mind that the Fed has raised rates so high,\u201d he noted, adding that he does not have a \u201chotline\u201d to Chair Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe economy right now is like a car,\u201d Musk said. \u201cYou\u2019re driving around on a cliffside road, and the Fed is driving it by looking at the rearview mirror. In fact, it\u2019s not even looking at the rearview mirror. It\u2019s looking at a video taken of the rearview mirror that\u2019s like three months old. So obviously, this is not a good way to drive a car on a windy cliff road.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a>, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by just 25 basis points at its policy meeting in February.<\/p>\n<p>This is not the first time Musk has warned about the Fed\u2019s rate hikes and the possibility of a recession.<\/p>\n<p>In a tweet on Dec. 9, for example, Musk projected that \u201cthe recession will be greatly amplified\u201d if the central bank pulled the trigger on another rate hike at the December policy meeting.<\/p>\n<p>In a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/elonmusk\/status\/1597878869910253569\">tweet<\/a>\u00a0on Nov. 30, Musk expressed concerns over current trends, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/elonmusk\/status\/1601298737984249857\">arguing<\/a> that the \u201cFed needs to cut interest rates immediately.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Musk <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/elonmusk\/status\/1583320632174837760\">predicted<\/a> in October that a global recession would last \u201cuntil spring of \u201924.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Nick Reece, the portfolio manager at Merk Investments, echoed Musk\u2019s concerns that the Fed\u2019s present stance is keeping the recession risk high.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe time window for a constructive Fed pivot has likely closed anyway,\u201d he wrote in a research note.\u00a0However, he noted that bear trends in the financial markets \u201chistorically bottom well before recessions end.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Recession Talk Heating Up<\/h2>\n<p>Musk has not been the only one to anticipate a recession.<\/p>\n<p>A recent Bloomberg <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-12-20\/economists-place-70-chance-for-us-recession-in-2023?leadSource=uverify%20wall\">survey<\/a> placed the odds of a recession in 2023 at 70 percent, up 10 percent from the previous October poll.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) <a href=\"https:\/\/nabe.com\/NABE\/Surveys\/Outlook_Surveys\/December_2022_Outlook_Survey_Summary.aspx\">reported<\/a> that next year\u2019s chances of a recession top 50 percent, citing a survey of 51 professional forecasters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe more subdued outlook coincides with materially higher expectations for interest rates at the end of this year and next,\u201d said Dana Peterson, chair of the NABE survey and Conference Board chief economist, in a statement. \u201cPanelists expect job growth will slow over the first three quarters of 2023 but remain positive.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economics Index (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,of%200.9%20percent%20in%20October.\">LEI<\/a>), which assesses multiple variables, including unemployment, consumption, real estate, and manufacturing, tumbled by 1 percent in November. This was worse than the market estimate of negative 0.4 percent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOnly stock prices contributed positively to the U.S. LEI in November,\u201d noted Ataman Ozyildirim, the Conference Board\u2019s senior director of economics. \u201cLabor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened\u2014reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth. Interest rate spread and manufacturing new orders components were essentially unchanged in November, confirming a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But the Federal Reserve is not penciling in a recession.<\/p>\n<p>The central bank\u2019s December Summary of Economic Projections (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20221214.htm\">SEP<\/a>)\u2014updated from September\u2014forecasted a real GDP growth rate of 0.5 percent in 2023, 1.6 percent in 2024, and 1.8 percent in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed Bank of Philadelphia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/surveys-and-data\/real-time-data-research\/spf-q4-2022#:~:text=On%20an%20annual%2Daverage%20over,accompanies%20the%20outlook%20for%20growth.\">Fourth Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters<\/a> expects the U.S. economy to avert a recession, with real GDP rising to 0.7 percent next year.<\/p>\n<h2>Disinflation and Weakness<\/h2>\n<p>The latest data show two trends forming: slowing inflation and weakness in the economy.<\/p>\n<p>The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index\u2014the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measurement\u2014eased to 5.5 percent year over year in November, down from 6.1 percent in October. On a month-over-month basis, the PCE price index rose just 0.1 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Last month, durable goods orders plummeted by 2.1 percent, down from the 0.7 percent gain in October, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/manufacturing\/m3\/adv\/current\/index.html\">Census Bureau<\/a>. This was the biggest drop since February.<\/p>\n<p>Durable goods orders excluding defense declined by 2.6 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Personal spending edged up 0.1 percent in November, down from 0.9 percent in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022\">BEA<\/a>). Personal income increased by 0.4 percent, down from 0.7 percent. The personal savings rate\u2014i.e., personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income\u2014was just 2.4 percent.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the University of Michigan\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/\">Consumer Sentiment Index<\/a> climbed to 59.7 in December, up from 56.8 in November.<\/p>\n<div class=\"author_wrapper\">\n<div class=\"one_author_block round\">\n<div class=\"top_row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/author-andrew-moran\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/WEB_AndrewMoran.jpeg\" alt=\"Andrew Moran\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p>Andrew Moran has been writing about business, economics, and finance for more than a decade. He is the author of &#8220;The War on Cash.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla Motors and Twitter, thinks the next recession will be comparable to the global financial crisis of 2008\u201309. While speaking during a Twitter Spaces discussion on Dec. 22, Musk acknowledged that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession and 2023 will result in a \u201cserious\u201d economic downturn. \u201cIt\u2019s &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1785563,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[6962,11571,8016,5458,11572,6170,4249,4263,4250,10069,3819,4719],"class_list":["post-1785560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report","tag-the","tag-2008-09","tag-8016","tag-bongino","tag-comparable","tag-crisis","tag-elon","tag-financial","tag-musk","tag-recession","tag-report","tag-will"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1785560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1785560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1785560\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1785563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1785560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1785560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1785560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}