{"id":1773343,"date":"2022-12-13T07:48:16","date_gmt":"2022-12-13T12:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1773343"},"modified":"2022-12-13T08:34:00","modified_gmt":"2022-12-13T13:34:00","slug":"is-russia-close-to-using-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-russia-close-to-using-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Russia Close to Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fis-russia-close-to-using-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1773343&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Nuclear-Weapons-1.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\"   style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n<p><span>Russia<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brainyquote.com\/quotes\/winston_churchill_156896\"><span> is<\/span><\/a><span> a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/putins-ukraine-disaster-russian-forces-were-hit-by-their-own-artillery\/\">enigma<\/a>. That being the case, it\u2019s hard to say with confidence whether<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/ukraine-appears-show-ability-strike-234256911.html\"><span> Ukrainian drone strikes deep<\/span><\/a><span> within Russian territory might induce Vladimir Putin to order a nuclear <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/putin-would-be-a-total-fool-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine\/\">riposte<\/a>. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n[embedded content]\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Putin is given to muttering darkly about nuclear war, presumably to deter the West from involving itself more directly in Ukraine\u2019s defense. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Even so, that he would use doomsday weaponry seems doubtful on strategic and operational grounds.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>First, strategy. Bombarding airfields in Ukraine\u2019s beleaguered eastward provinces\u2014airfields from which the drone strikes probably emanated\u2014would defy strategic logic. The ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/artofwargriff00sunz\"><span> put it best<\/span><\/a><span>: \u201cGenerally in war the best policy is to take a state intact; to ruin it is inferior to this.\u201d The wise sovereign and field commander do their utmost to avoid ruining lands they want to make their own. They preserve the land, its people, and its resources for the sovereign\u2019s use.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>It\u2019s unclear whether Putin still entertains \u201cunlimited\u201d strategic aims vis-\u00e0-vis Ukraine, meaning it\u2019s unclear whether he intends to unseat the Kiev government and forcibly \u201cdenazify\u201d the country. Judging from this year\u2019s lackluster performance, Russian arms appear incapable of accomplishing goals of such sweep. But he certainly wants the eastern sections Moscow has purported to annex. Nuking sites on or near those territories is no way to preserve them for incorporation into metropolitan Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nuclear use would amount to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/did-putin-just-make-a-nuclear-war-threat-over-ukraine-again\/\">self-defeating behavior<\/a>.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>But Putin would have to fret about more than the impact on Ukraine. Check the weather. At present a southerly wind is<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/earth.nullschool.net\/#current\/wind\/surface\/level\/orthographic=36.98,40.82,2293\/loc=37.058,48.258\"><span> blowing<\/span><\/a><span> in from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/11\/has-ukraine-turned-russias-black-sea-fleet-into-a-joke\/\">Black Sea<\/a> and Sea of Azov. If that pattern persisted, the wind would sweep debris from a nuclear blast into Russia and perhaps its ally <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/11\/could-putin-invade-ukraine-from-belarus\/\">Belarus<\/a>, both of which lie to Ukraine\u2019s north. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Few residents of those parts would take kindly to finding themselves in the radioactive hazard zone downwind from an atomic battleground. They would blame <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/10\/would-putin-use-russias-nuclear-weapons-to-stop-a-coup\/\">Putin<\/a>.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>What happens in Ukraine doesn\u2019t stay in Ukraine if you\u2019re talking nuclear warfare.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Next, operations. From an operational standpoint, would tactical nukes make a useful implement for Russia\u2019s counterair campaign? It\u2019s hard to see how. The Ukrainian armed forces have fared better than anyone thought possible because they have dispersed on the battlefield. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>They refuse to congregate in massed formations that can be easily targeted, and they remain on the move to elude the Russian foe. So if Russian commanders opted to use nuclear weapons, they would probably have to use them in bulk to have much impact on scattered Ukrainian forces.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>In the bargain they would compound the problems detailed above.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Fortunately for Europe and the world, Putin is probably sincere when he says he wants to avoid reaching for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/10\/yes-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine\/\">ultimate weapon<\/a>. Not because he\u2019s a bighearted humanitarian, but because deploying nukes against an outmatched opponent that he has denied is even a real country would be tacitly confessing to Russia\u2019s political frailty and martial degeneracy. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Such a confession would be anathema to Putin, who goes out of his way to project an image of manly vigor.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Russia may be an enigma, but I\u2019m betting its leadership yields to harsh realities\u2014and keeps the nuclear arsenal in reserve.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><em><span><a href=\"https:\/\/usnwc.edu\/Faculty-and-Departments\/Directory\/James-R-Holmes\">Dr. James Holmes<\/a> is J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the <a href=\"https:\/\/usnwc.edu\/\">U.S. Naval War College<\/a> and a Nonresident Fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation &#038; Future Warfare, Marine Corps University. The views voiced here are his alone.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. That being the case, it\u2019s hard to say with confidence whether Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russian territory might<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1715918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[5458,5437,4639,3819,4280,6991,7788],"class_list":["post-1773343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report","tag-bongino","tag-close","tag-nuclear","tag-report","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-weapons"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1773343","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1773343"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1773343\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1715918"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1773343"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1773343"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1773343"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}