{"id":1771197,"date":"2022-12-10T06:30:51","date_gmt":"2022-12-10T11:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1771197"},"modified":"2022-12-10T10:49:41","modified_gmt":"2022-12-10T15:49:41","slug":"sorry-putin-russia-cant-use-winter-to-win-the-war-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/sorry-putin-russia-cant-use-winter-to-win-the-war-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Sorry, Putin: Russia Can\u2019t Use Winter to Win the War in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fsorry-putin-russia-cant-use-winter-to-win-the-war-in-ukraine%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1771197&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Russian-TOS-1A-in-Ukraine.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\"     style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Winter will Not Save Russia in Ukraine:<\/strong> As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/why-the-winter-war-in-ukraine-will-be-a-bloodbath\/\">winter<\/a> arrives in Europe, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/video-ukraine-is-getting-ready-for-a-brutal-winter-war-against-russia\/\">operations<\/a> in the Ukraine War will slow. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/11\/ukraine-war-whose-side-will-general-winter-take\/\">Both sides<\/a> will likely use the time to re-arm and re-fit for warmer weather operations next year.\n<\/p>\n[embedded content]\n<\/p>\n<p>But for the Russians, the winter is also a major part of whatever remains of its \u2018plan\u2019 to win the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin is gambling that he can use <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/interactive\/graphic-detail\/2022\/11\/26\/high-fuel-prices-could-kill-more-europeans-than-fighting-in-ukraine-has\">energy as a weapon<\/a> against Ukraine\u2019s foreign backers, particularly in Europe.\n<\/p>\n<p>Putin hopes that he can embargo gas exports to Europe, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-09-21\/european-gas-jumps-on-winter-risks-as-putin-steps-up-ukraine-war\">forcing soaring gas prices<\/a> and possible shortages. Chilly Europeans shivering in their homes will press their governments to press Ukraine to sue for peace. Europe, particularly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/leopard-2-tanks-headed-to-ukraine-to-fight-russia\/\">Germany<\/a>, has become dependent on cheap, plentiful Russian gas.\n<\/p>\n<p>Western strategists <a href=\"https:\/\/www.files.ethz.ch\/isn\/134230\/pub1088.pdf\">long pointed out<\/a> how risky this was. It gave Putin powerful leverage in a crisis with Western Europe. The US mainly pushed Germany hard not to complete gas pipelines to Russia for fear for it would be vulnerable to Russian blackmail. That test has now arrived.\n<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Winter won\u2019t Stop the War in Ukraine<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In the popular imagination, wars in Russia come to catastrophe in the winter. Both Napoleon and Hitler famously lost their wars there in part because of terrible weather. But in the Ukraine case, there is little to suggest such a dramatic outcome. Ukraine is further south than Moscow, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/warmer-than-average-winter-ahead-for-europe-forecaster-says-\/6789502.html#:~:text=Warmer%2DThan%2DAverage%20Winter%20Ahead%20for%20Europe%2C%20Forecaster%20Says,-October%2013%2C%202022&#038;text=19%2C%202022.&#038;text=Europe%20faces%20a%20higher%2Dthan,range%20weather%20forecaster%20said%20Thursday.\">winter forecast<\/a> for Europe is that the season will be warmer than usual.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, both sides are still deeply committed to the war. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/poll-shows-ukrainians-resolved-to-fight-until-victory\/6796951.html\">Ukrainian opinion<\/a> remains strongly supportive of continuing the war, including the liberation of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/11\/putins-next-military-disaster-ukraine-could-try-to-retake-crimea\/\">Crimea<\/a>, which Russia seized eight years before this year\u2019s full-scale war commenced. In Russia, we have a poor sense of public opinion, but Russia is now effectively a dictatorship, so what matters most are the beliefs of Putin and his inner circle. And Putin remains very committed. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/12\/07\/world\/europe\/putin-russia-ukraine-war.html\">recently <\/a>doubled down on the war yet again, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/putin-makes-it-clear-russia-will-keep-hitting-ukraines-energy-grid\/\">insisting<\/a>\u00a0 it \u201cmight be a long process.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>Putin has tied his own personal legitimacy to the war. He will not end it even if Russia is losing \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/09\/russia-seems-destined-to-lose-the-war-in-ukraine\/\">as it clearly is now<\/a>. The only chance Russia may change course is if public pressure rises \u2013 likely under the weight of battlefield losses, in turn pressuring elites to do something. (Mothers of soldiers killed and wounded in the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s played a similarly pressuring role in that conflict.) There is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/leaked-kremlin-poll-55-of-russians-want-talks-end-ukraine-war-2022-12\">rising anxiety<\/a> over the war in Russia. But given the winter will slow the tempo of operations on both sides, Putin should be able to contain domestic discontent until next year.<\/p>\n<p>When spring operations begin though, the body count will rise. Hence Putin\u2019s big gamble on gas prices and Europe this season.\n<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Will the Europeans Fold over High Prices and the Cold?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Probably not, if only because the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/warmer-than-average-winter-ahead-for-europe-forecaster-says-\/6789502.html#:~:text=Warmer%2DThan%2DAverage%20Winter%20Ahead%20for%20Europe%2C%20Forecaster%20Says,-October%2013%2C%202022&#038;text=19%2C%202022.&#038;text=Europe%20faces%20a%20higher%2Dthan,range%20weather%20forecaster%20said%20Thursday.\">forecast<\/a> for the winter \u2013 luckily enough \u2013 that it will be rather moderate. More importantly, <a href=\"https:\/\/globaleurope.eu\/europes-future\/under-pressure-the-war-in-ukraine-and-european-public-opinion\/\">a sizeable majority of Europeans<\/a> still support transferring weapons to support Ukraine. And European elites are nearly monolithic on this point. It has been widely remarked that Putin\u2019s war was to fracture NATO but led instead to a greater sense of purpose for the alliance than any time since the Cold War.\n<\/p>\n<p>Two new members states \u2013 Finland and Sweden \u2013 are on the cusp of entering NATO, and both have no illusions about Russia. They <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/dec\/02\/finland-pm-sanna-marin-says-europe-is-not-strong-enough-without-the-us\">are already criticizing<\/a> more complacent European states (read: Germany) over illusions about Russia. Their imminent entrance into the alliance will make it even harder for Germany or Italy to throw Ukraine under the bus because of heating bills. Expect much chiding from cold Scandinavian states that Germans and others are too decadent to wear sweaters and heavy socks for one season to help win a war on Europe\u2019s doorstep. And by next year, Europe will have alternate energy sources online. So this Russian blackmail has only once chance \u2013 right now \u2013 to work.<\/p>\n<p>In short, Putin\u2019s gas weapon is unlikely to work. Even if the Germans want to break, much of NATO would help Ukraine unilaterally \u2013 the US, Poland, the Baltics, Britain, Scandinavia. Are holdouts willing to alienate themselves from an important cause and their many friends because of the perception that they are too decadent to pay higher heating bills or wear heavier clothing? Europe needs to get through the next three months. That is all.\n<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Next Year<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Putin\u2019s options will then start to narrow as next year warms up. If the West kits up Ukraine over the winter and steps up training, the Ukrainian military may come roaring out of the gate when the weather turns. Russia has a few months to prepare for this, but its military problems in Ukraine \u2013 corruption, low morale, weak NCO leadership, faulty communications, unhappy conscripts \u2013 are not the sort which can remedied quickly.\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>MORE:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/donald-trump-is-destroying-himself\/\">Donald Trump Is Destroying Himself<\/a><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>MORE:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/crazy-fact-the-sr-71-blackbird-outran-4000-missiles\/\">Mach 3 SR-71 Spy Plane Beat 4,000 Missiles<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>MORE:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/b-21-raider-stealth-bomber-everything-we-know-right-now\/\">B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber \u2013 Built for a China War?\u00a0<\/a><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>MORE:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/12\/is-putin-close-to-starting-a-nuclear-war-over-ukraine\/\">Will Putin Start World War III Over Ukraine?\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Putin can drag out the war next year. He can mobilize yet more of his population. But he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2022\/12\/05\/ukraine-war-assistance-weapons-production\/?itid=ap_maxboot\">cannot outproduce the West<\/a>, nor can his soldiers outfight the highly committed Ukrainians who will fight on no matter their losses. Hence Putin\u2019s desperate nuclear threats this year. But that is a <a href=\"https:\/\/robertedwinkelly.com\/2022\/11\/02\/how-will-nato-respond-in-the-unlikely-event-russia-uses-a-nuke-in-ukraine-we-will-not-counter-nuke-we-have-many-other-options\/\">huge wildcard<\/a> and probably would not change the tide of the war anyway.\n<\/p>\n<p>So Putin\u2019s options are still poor. He is reduced to praying for a huge blizzard to hit Europe. That\u2019s barely a strategy at all.\n<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Expert Biography:<\/strong><\/em><em>\u00a0 <\/em><strong>Dr. Robert E. Kelly<\/strong><em>\u00a0(<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Robert_E_Kelly\"><em>@Robert_E_Kelly<\/em><\/a><em>;\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/robertedwinkelly.com\/\"><em>RoberEdwinKelly.com<\/em><\/a><em>) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Winter will Not Save Russia in Ukraine: As winter arrives in Europe, operations in the Ukraine War will slow. Both sides will likely use the time to re-arm and re-fit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1898269,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[5458,3680,3733,3819,4280,7628,6991,6696,7627,3829],"class_list":["post-1771197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report","tag-bongino","tag-cant","tag-putin","tag-report","tag-russia","tag-sorry","tag-ukraine","tag-war","tag-win","tag-winter"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1771197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1771197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1771197\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1898269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1771197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1771197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1771197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}