{"id":1741750,"date":"2022-11-17T06:30:10","date_gmt":"2022-11-17T11:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1741750"},"modified":"2022-11-17T06:33:47","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T11:33:47","slug":"heres-whos-leading-among-2024-gop-voters-for-the-presidential-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/heres-whos-leading-among-2024-gop-voters-for-the-presidential-primary\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s Who\u2019s Leading Among 2024 GOP Voters for the Presidential Primary"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fheres-whos-leading-among-2024-gop-voters-for-the-presidential-primary%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1741750&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00b8961f-85b0-425e-a48f-099a37f2f5a5.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<p>One poll is an outlier. \u00a0Two could be a possible trend. \u00a0What about <em>a dozen\u00a0<\/em>or so? \u00a0Earlier in the week, <a href=\"https:\/\/townhall.com\/tipsheet\/guybenson\/2022\/11\/14\/on-trumps-anti-desantis-screed-n2615875\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">I mentioned<\/a> a national YouGov survey showing Republican-leaning voters now preferring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to former President Donald Trump (way) ahead of the 2024 primaries. \u00a0DeSantis led by seven points in the poll, a 16 point swing away from Trump in the span of one month. \u00a0And what happened within that month is obvious and significant: A slew of MAGA-aligned candidates lost or underperformed in an underwhelming midterm election for Republicans, while DeSantis won a blowout of <a href=\"https:\/\/townhall.com\/tipsheet\/guybenson\/2022\/11\/10\/florida-a-red-riptide-beatdown-of-epic-historic-proportions-n2615677\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">shocking and historic proportions<\/a> in Florida, securing re-election by an unfathomable margin of nearly 20 points. \u00a0GOP-leaning voters seem to have noticed and internalized these developments. \u00a0There are multiple caveats to this hard movement toward DeSantis, and we&#8217;ll address a few of them below. \u00a0But first, note that we&#8217;re not just talking about that one national poll of Republicans. \u00a0There&#8217;s also this one out of Texas:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\" style=\"text-align: center;\">2024 TX Republican Primary Poll<\/p>\n<p>DeSantis \u2014 43%<br \/>Trump \u2014 32%<br \/>Pence \u2014 5%<br \/>Haley \u2014 4%<br \/>T. Scott \u2014 1%<\/p>\n<p>Oct. 23<br \/>Trump \u2014 46%<br \/>DeSantis \u2014 29%<br \/>Abbot \u2014 4%<br \/>Pence \u2014 4%<br \/>Haley \u2014 4%<br \/>Cruz \u2014 3%<\/p>\n<p>\u29bf November 12-13, 1,099 LV<br \/>\u29bf <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CWS_Research?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@CWS_Research<\/a> \/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TexasGOP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@TexasGOP<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mMmM8PjZjN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/mMmM8PjZjN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1592208067680415744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 14, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That&#8217;s a dramatic inversion in a matter of weeks. \u00a0Intervening events had a massive impact, clearly. \u00a0Add the Texas numbers to <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/569311-ron-desantis-competitive-with-donald-trump-in-more-2024-state-polling\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">previous (pre-election) polling<\/a> showing DeSantis surging ahead in his home state of Florida, plus neighboring Georgia, and we&#8217;ve got an intriguing phenomenon on our hands. \u00a0And then, one day ahead of President Trump&#8217;s anticipated &#8212; and incredibly early &#8212; 2024 announcement, the conservative Club for Growth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/11\/14\/club-for-growth-steps-trump-relaunch-desantis-00066820\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">dropped these polling bombs<\/a> out of the sky:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\" style=\"text-align: center;\">NEWS: The Club for Growth fires a warning shot at Trump on the eve of his \u201824 launch &#8211; and indicates it might back DeSantis<\/p>\n<p>Club &#8211; a former staunch Trump ally &#8211; releases polling memo showing DeSantis with wide leads over Trump in IA\/NH\/FL\/GA<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fbofBWrWx3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/fbofBWrWx3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Isenstadt (@politicoalex) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/politicoalex\/status\/1592267929135063040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 14, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"in\" style=\"text-align: center;\">2024 Presidential GOP Primary<\/p>\n<p>(+- vs from August 13)<\/p>\n<p>IA<br \/>DeSantis \u2014 48% (+11)<br \/>Trump \u2014 37% (-15)<\/p>\n<p>NH<br \/>DeSantis \u2014 52% (+7)<br \/>Trump \u2014 37% (-8)<\/p>\n<p>FL<br \/>DeSantis \u2014 56% (+7)<br \/>Trump \u2014 30% (-12)<\/p>\n<p>GA<br \/>DeSantis \u2014 55% (+8)<br \/>Trump \u2014 35% (-6)<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WPAIntel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@WPAIntel<\/a> | 11\/11-13 | LV&#8217;s<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SjR18Lhdnm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/SjR18Lhdnm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1592271468045684736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 14, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The swings, compared to August data, are huge. \u00a0Based on these surveys, Florida&#8217;s governor how holds head-to-head leads against Trump of 11 points in Iowa, 15 points in New Hampshire, 26 points in Florida, and 20 points in Georgia. \u00a0Here are <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1592528462279249921\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">three more state-level polls<\/a> (IA, NH, NV) with DeSantis now ahead, a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1592534910509940738\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">national poll<\/a> with DeSantis barely ahead, and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1592532577180696581\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">another national survey<\/a> with Trump leading. \u00a0It&#8217;s undeniable that quite a lot of Republican-aligned voters are at least very open to moving on from Trump, and seem to respect and prize winning. \u00a0Since his upset 2016 victory over one of the most polarizing and unlikable major party nominees in modern American politics, Republicans have steadily lost ground during the era in which the party&#8217;s brand has been widely associated with Trump. \u00a0Big 2018 losses in spite of an excellent economy (for which Trump deserves a good deal of credit, by the way), a 2020 presidential loss against a weak candidate, a <a href=\"https:\/\/townhall.com\/tipsheet\/guybenson\/2021\/02\/04\/confirmed-stolen-election-claims-depressed-gop-turnout-handed-democrats-georgia-n2584165\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">disastrous Democratic sweep<\/a> in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs (one day prior to the January 6th disgrace), and now the very tepid 2022 &#8216;red splash,&#8217; under what should have been near-ideal conditions for thumping Republican gains. \u00a0These outcomes are not all exclusively about Trump, and it&#8217;s an oversimplification to suggest otherwise, but he is a common denominator, nevertheless.<\/p>\n<p>Now, some of the aforementioned caveats: <strong>(1)<\/strong> It&#8217;s ludicrously early. \u00a0Part of the reason this is all playing out so soon is because Trump has insisted on getting into the race nearly <em>two years<\/em> before the next general election. \u00a0Next Thanksgiving (2023), he will have been running for president for an entire year-plus already, with nearly another full year to go until the general. \u00a0He risks an exhaustion\/burnout factor among voters in making this decision, but it&#8217;s a risk he&#8217;s evidently willing to take. \u00a0A lot can happen in just a few weeks, as the polling above indicates. \u00a0Lord knows how things will be shaping up roughly a year from this coming January. <strong>\u00a0(2)<\/strong> DeSantis is obviously having a moment, and it&#8217;s well earned. \u00a0But political moments come and go. \u00a0Whether he can sustain something is an open question, as is whether he&#8217;ll take the 2024 plunge at all. \u00a0My guess is that he&#8217;s inclined to do so, but nothing is certain until it happens. \u00a0Regardless, very early polling in election cycles often end up looking very silly in retrospect.<\/p>\n<p><strong>(3)\u00a0<\/strong>One-on-one polls are only so useful because they don&#8217;t reflect the actual choices voters will likely face. \u00a0Even if DeSantis can maintain a fairly commanding hypothetical lead over Trump over the next 12-16 months, which is a massive &#8216;if&#8217;, a crowded 2024 field would deprive him of the head-to-head shot he may covet against Trump. \u00a0If there are, say, a dozen people running, the pie of GOP primary support gets sliced up among a lot of names, which would benefit the person with the most loyal and consolidated slice\/base of support. \u00a0That person, as of now, would be Donald Trump. \u00a0The more people enter the race, the better it is for him, which is why I think his exceptionally early entry into the 2024 fray is a strategic mistake &#8212; not just because of the burnout factor mentioned above, but because his early presence will probably freeze out or scare off a number of people who&#8217;d otherwise get in. \u00a0His uncontrollable desire to be the biggest dog, garnering the most attention as soon as possible, and announcing hyper-early as Republicans are still licking wounds from last week, doesn&#8217;t seem like the best strategy. \u00a0But maybe he&#8217;ll assert oxygen-sucking dominance right out of the gate and coast to the nomination. \u00a0We&#8217;ll see.<\/p>\n<p>For now, DeSantis appears content to smartly ignore Trump&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/townhall.com\/tipsheet\/guybenson\/2022\/11\/14\/on-trumps-anti-desantis-screed-n2615875\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">unprovoked barbs and provocations<\/a>, while focusing on the business of the people of Florida. \u00a0In case you missed it, here was DeSantis putting in a clinic on not taking the bait when asked about Trump&#8217;s comments:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Great answer. Bait not taken, Trump not mentioned, frames attacks as \u201cnoise\u201d and criticism from the media (and vague, unnamed other sources), and broadly points to the results scoreboard. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JgROHK9P1X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/JgROHK9P1X<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Guy Benson (@guypbenson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/guypbenson\/status\/1592569506177888256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 15, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>With Trump already in, it makes all the sense in the world for DeSantis to watch and wait as things settle a bit. \u00a0He&#8217;s in the unusual position of being both an underdog and a potential frontrunner-in-waiting, so holding off on a decision and possible announcement for months isn&#8217;t a bad play at all. \u00a0I&#8217;ll leave you with conservative columnist and newly-minted Floridian Karol Markowicz &#8212; who has been a Trump and DeSantis supporter &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/radio.foxnews.com\/2022\/11\/14\/karol-markowicz-trumps-attacks-on-desantis-are-such-a-misstep\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">pushing back against<\/a> my theoretical comparison of her re-elected governor to a 2016 Scott Walker redux situation (a governor who beat the Left in his state, thrilled the base, put big wins on the board, then fizzled as a presidential candidate on the national stage):<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\" style=\"text-align: center;\">.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/karol?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@karol<\/a>: Trump\u2019s Attacks On DeSantis Are \u2018Such A Misstep\u2019<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/FoxNews?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#FoxNews<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Trump?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#Trump<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/DeSantis?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#DeSantis<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7lfULaWZWd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/7lfULaWZWd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GuyBensonShow\/status\/1592298798260584448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 14, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One poll is an outlier. \u00a0Two could be a possible trend. \u00a0What about a dozen\u00a0or so? \u00a0Earlier in the week, I mentioned a national YouGov survey showing Republican-leaning voters now<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1741753,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1741750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1741750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1741753"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1741750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1741750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1741750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}