{"id":1734909,"date":"2022-11-11T06:30:09","date_gmt":"2022-11-11T11:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1734909"},"modified":"2022-11-11T09:18:29","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T14:18:29","slug":"john-stossel-election-good-bad-and-ugly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/john-stossel-election-good-bad-and-ugly\/","title":{"rendered":"John Stossel: Election Good, Bad and Ugly"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">14<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fjohn-stossel-election-good-bad-and-ugly%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1734909&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/76347021-b870-409c-b19f-fe020f29b867-1.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<p>The Good: We have divided government. Since Democrats no longer control Congress, they can&#8217;t bankrupt America quite so fast!<\/p>\n<p>The Bad: Prediction markets, which I touted as the best guide to elections, didn&#8217;t do so well. Yes, they correctly said Republicans would take the House, but they&#8217;d also predicted Republicans would take the Senate. Polls and statistical modelers like Nate Silver did a bit better this time. They also said Republicans would win both, but they gave them only a slight edge.<\/p>\n<p>As I write this Wednesday morning, Republicans have (according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the site <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/maximlott\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Maxim Lott<\/a> created that tracks election betting around the world) a 19% chance of winning the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>Nineteen percent isn&#8217;t zero; they <em>could\u00a0<\/em>still win the Senate, but Republicans don&#8217;t have the 60-70% chance that bettors gave them in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>The Good: Bettors at least adjust their predictions quickly.<\/p>\n<p>Last night, while clods on TV still said &#8220;Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House (CBS),&#8221; those of us who follow the betting already knew that Republicans would win the House.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, bettors have a great track record. Across 730 candidate chances we&#8217;ve tracked, when something is expected to happen 70% of the time, it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionbettingodds.com\/TrackRecord.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">actually happens<\/a> about 70% of the time.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s because people with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right. They also adjust quickly when they see they&#8217;ve made a mistake.<\/p>\n<p>At 8:23 p.m., with just 12% of the New Hampshire vote counted, bettors gave Democrat Maggie Hassan more than a 90% chance of winning the Senate seat, up from 63% earlier in the day. You wouldn&#8217;t have noticed that shift watching TV. The AP didn&#8217;t call the race until 11:39 p.m.<\/p>\n<p>Bettors also failed to predict Trump&#8217;s win in 2016. But they at least gave him a 20% chance, much higher than most &#8220;expert&#8221; statistical modelers, like the Princeton Election Consortium, which gave him an absurd 0.01% chance.<\/p>\n<p>Big picture: Betting odds remain the single best, and fastest-updating predictor.<\/p>\n<p>The Good: Last night, Ron DeSantis&#8217; odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee jumped from 16% to 27%, while Donald Trump&#8217;s odds fell to 18%. That&#8217;s probably because of DeSantis&#8217; nearly 20-point blowout win in a swing state. I put this in the &#8220;good&#8221; category because, watching Trump on TV last night, I&#8217;m reminded that he&#8217;s an ignorant bully who only cares about himself. His mere presence on the public stage hurts America by creating more division and hate. His election &#8220;denier&#8221; candidates like Doug Mastriano, Doug Bolduc, Tudor Dixon, and John Gibbs all lost.<\/p>\n<p>Also, if DeSantis is nominated in 2024, bettors give him a 74% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.electionbettingodds.com\/GOPPrimary2024.html\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">chance of winning<\/a>, whereas they give Trump just a 47% chance.<\/p>\n<p>The Good: If Kamala Harris is nominated, bettors give her just a 36% chance of becoming president.<\/p>\n<p>The Ugly: Long-term incumbents won again: Patty Murray, Mike Crapo and Chuck Schumer (29 years in Congress); Ron Wyden and Chuck Grassley won, too (42 years).<\/p>\n<p>The Good: Iowa passed an amendment protecting gun rights. Three states passed measures protecting reproductive freedom. Anti-abortion measures in two states lost. Maryland and Missouri legalized recreational weed.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe Good: Ranked-choice voting leads in Nevada.<\/p>\n<p>The Bad: Recreational weed lost in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota. Sports gambling lost in California. California also banned e-cigarettes, which will create a new criminal black market and kill more cigarette smokers.<\/p>\n<p>The Ugly: Chuck Schumer will probably be Senate Majority Leader again.<\/p>\n<p>The Ugly: The Wall Street Journal reports: &#8220;Europe Doubles Down on Big Government &#8230; adding hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs, guaranteeing business loans.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Won&#8217;t voters ever ask government to LEAVE PEOPLE ALONE?<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s so sad. All around the world, we don&#8217;t learn.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, ElectionBettingOdds.com also tracks football odds. The Buffalo Bills, despite losing last Sunday, still lead the Super Bowl pack. The Eagles, Chiefs follow; 49ers, Ravens and Cowboys follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Good: We have divided government. Since Democrats no longer control Congress, they can&#8217;t bankrupt America quite so fast!The Bad: Prediction markets, which I touted as the best guide to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1697641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1734909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1734909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1734909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1734909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1697641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1734909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1734909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1734909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}