{"id":1732987,"date":"2022-11-10T06:30:25","date_gmt":"2022-11-10T11:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1732987"},"modified":"2022-11-10T08:18:03","modified_gmt":"2022-11-10T13:18:03","slug":"three-factors-in-the-red-wave-that-wasnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/three-factors-in-the-red-wave-that-wasnt\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Factors in the Red Wave That Wasn\u2019t"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthree-factors-in-the-red-wave-that-wasnt%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1732987&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/6632f26f-07ba-4047-a303-5f63d474f245-1110x740-1.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<p>In this episode of <em>Don\u2019t Shoot the Messenger, Unless It Makes You Feel Better to Do So\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<p>So, here we find ourselves, one day removed from the 2022 midterm elections. The balance of power in Congress is still up for grabs \u2014 in both chambers. The much-ballyhooed \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/bonchie\/2022\/11\/08\/as-the-red-wave-arrives-kari-lake-absolutely-wrecks-a-snarky-reporter-n656378\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">red wave<\/a>\u201d didn\u2019t happen, after all. Now what?<\/p>\n<p>While many never believed the red wave would materialize, media talking heads and keyboard warriors across the fruited plain not only told us it <em>would<\/em>\u00a0happen; they told us it\u00a0<em>was<\/em>\u00a0happening, as election night unfolded.<\/p>\n<p>Except it didn\u2019t. Why not? That\u2019s a <em>yuuge<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 and necessary \u2014 question.<\/p>\n<p>While political pundits galore began making excuses on Tuesday night, others offered objective analyses of what went wrong. So what were the <em>real reasons<\/em> the \u201cinevitable\u201d great red wave was in reality the <em>not-so-great red trickle?\u00a0<\/em>The whole thing came down to three key factors; predicted by some and ignored or ridiculed by others.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. With limited exceptions, 90 percent of election outcomes are baked in before the first vote is cast.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While some appear to believe every election begins at 0-0, it\u2019s far from the case. Races generally begin in the 45-45 range, if not 47-47, with percentage points added or subtracted from each candidate\u2019s \u201cstarting point\u201d based on other factors, including where they stand on issues, who they face, and how they perform, but more importantly, where<em> voters<\/em> <em>stand on them,<\/em> and how many voters show up and vote.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Election turnout.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pre-elections polls and surveys, regardless of how much they\u2019re covered ad nauseam, are largely irrelevant. The only votes that matter are election ballots. As election history has shown us, when voter complacency \u2014 let\u2019s call it <em>overconfidence,<\/em> this time \u2014 sets in, fewer voters vote, believing the election is already in the bag, so why bother? Hyping the daylights out a coming red wave that never came helped <em>nobody<\/em> on the Republican side of the aisle, and I\u2019d argue it hurt the GOP.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. Donald Trump.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Love him or hate him, to deny that <a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/joesquire\/2022\/11\/09\/before-we-talk-about-trump-and-tuesdays-elections-we-have-to-talk-about-his-effect-on-us-n656783\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donald Trump\u2019s presence loomed larger than life<\/a> in the 2022 midterms is to deny reality. Exactly <em>what impact<\/em> Trump had on election results began Tuesday night and fiercely continued on Wednesday. Let the hate clicks begin, but Trump has never been in a weaker position than he now finds himself. As I suggested above, an increasing number of Republican voters believe \u2014 whether they publically admit it or not \u2014 that it\u2019s time to move beyond Trump and his baggage, most of it self-inflicted.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat baggage?\u201d I\u2019m often asked (or snarled at).<\/p>\n<p>The latest ill-advised example came Saturday night at an Ohio rally when Trump mocked Ron Desantis \u2014 who won by almost 20 points on Tuesday, and gave the most stirring acceptance speech I\u2019ve seen in all my years of covering politics \u2014 as \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/mike_miller\/2022\/11\/08\/trumps-desantis-meltdown-continues-lawyer-warns-governor-to-stay-in-florida-as-big-announcement-looms-n656118\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ron DeSanctimonious<\/a>.\u201d Think about that. The self-proclaimed \u2014 and anointed by loyalists \u2014 de facto head of the Republican Party, mocks and ridicules the most popular governor in America, just three days before his race. What is <em>that? Who does that? <\/em>Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>I recently wrote a piece in which I suggested that multiple Trump-backed candidates, while winning their respective primaries, would likely lose their elections, whereas non-Trump-supported candidates they defeated would\u2019ve stood a better chance of winning. While several Trump-endorsed candidates prevailed, including J.D. Vance in Ohio, Ted Budd in North Carolina, Katie Britt in Alabama, and Eric Schmitt in Missouri, others failed.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest blow came in Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman beat Trump-backed candidate, Mehmet Oz. Other races remained too close to call on Wednesday morning, including Trump-backed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who trailed Democrat Katie Hobbs by less than a percentage point, and Trump-backed Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker, who remained in a statistical tie with Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock, although a Wednesday midday update tilted the race toward Warnock, with a <a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/joesquire\/2022\/11\/09\/breaking-herschel-walker-forces-raphael-warnock-into-senate-runoff-in-georgia-n655874\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">run-off<\/a> now forced.<\/p>\n<p>The deal: More than 23 key Trump-backed candidates went down to defeat, while several key races remain too close to call, and others are not looking good.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What, me worry?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So what does Trump think of all of this? Trump <a class=\"multivariate\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newsnationnow.com\/politics\/trump-midterms-interview\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">told NewsNation<\/a> Tuesday that he should \u201cget all the credit\u201d if his chosen candidates win their elections, but \u201cnot be blamed at all\u201d if they lose.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>When they win, I think they\u2019re going to do very well, I\u2019ll probably be given very little credit, even though in many cases, I tell people to run, they ran and they turned out to be very good candidates.<\/p>\n<p>But usually what would happen is, when they do well, I won\u2019t be given any credit. And if they do badly, they will blame everything on me. So I\u2019m prepared for anything, but we\u2019ll defend ourselves.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>How does a logical person respond to <em>that? <\/em>What logical person would <em>say it?\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In addition, Trump repeated his delusional claim: \u201cI made Ron DeSantis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While the Democrats will face their own challenges in 2024, it\u2019s time for the Republican Party to hold a frank national conversation about what was learned in the midterms, and how to best move forward after the vaunted red wave didn\u2019t materialize.<\/p>\n<p>That conversation must be about putting the GOP in the best position to recapture the White House. It must be about the most effective way to lead an America that is badly fractured, and effectively convey a winning plan to voters. The midterms should serve as a deafening warning shot, given the last two years under Biden\u2019s disastrous presidency, that things need to change and they need to change rapidly, with the 2024 election just 24 months away.<\/p>\n<p>Let the chips fall where they may, but doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?<\/p>\n<p>Yeah, insanity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this episode of Don\u2019t Shoot the Messenger, Unless It Makes You Feel Better to Do So\u2026 So, here we find ourselves, one day removed from the 2022 midterm elections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1732990,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1732987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1732987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1732987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1732987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1732990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1732987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1732987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1732987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}