{"id":1722285,"date":"2022-11-02T19:48:13","date_gmt":"2022-11-02T23:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1722285"},"modified":"2022-11-02T19:48:32","modified_gmt":"2022-11-02T23:48:32","slug":"in-desperate-bid-to-save-democrats-pollsters-dont-care-if-theyre-wrong-this-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/in-desperate-bid-to-save-democrats-pollsters-dont-care-if-theyre-wrong-this-time\/","title":{"rendered":"In Desperate Bid To Save Democrats, Pollsters Don\u2019t Care If They\u2019re Wrong This Time"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">28<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fin-desperate-bid-to-save-democrats-pollsters-dont-care-if-theyre-wrong-this-time%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1722285&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Since the beginning of October, there have been 32 nationwide surveys taken on what pollsters call a \u201cgeneric congressional ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a simple poll: Without being specific about candidates, the pollsters ask respondents who they will likely vote for in an election, Republicans or Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>Of those 32 surveys, just two outlets \u2014 Economist\/YouGov and Politico\/Morning Consult \u2014 have shown Democrats with a lead.<\/p>\n<p>Just a couple weeks ago, Economist\/YouGov put Democrats <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.cdn.yougov.com\/sp4h6s0adp\/econTabReport.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ahead<\/a> by four points.\u00a0Politico\/Morning Consult went further, <a href=\"https:\/\/assets.morningconsult.com\/wp-uploads\/2022\/10\/25151347\/2210148_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_10-26-22_SH.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">saying<\/a> Democrats were up by five points.<\/p>\n<p>But every other pollster says Republicans enjoy a lead in the generic congressional ballot. In fact, a running average of all polls compiled by RealClearPolitics <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">shows<\/a> the GOP leads Democrats by 3 points.<\/p>\n<p>But finally, on Tuesday, Politico\/Morning Consult said the two parties were tied, 46-46.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEW: For the first time in Morning Consult tracking among likely voters, Democrats do not lead Republicans on the generic ballot<\/p>\n<p>Sept 29:<br \/>Democrats 49% (D+5)<br \/>Republicans 44%<\/p>\n<p>Today: <br \/>Republicans 46% (=)<br \/>Democrats 46%<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yK3xtyw6On\">https:\/\/t.co\/yK3xtyw6On<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3y4i5SO4Qs\">pic.twitter.com\/3y4i5SO4Qs<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1587436027974930433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 1, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Politico, a website founded by two liberal reporters from The Washington Post, has clearly been trying to pretend the election is up for grabs. They\u2019re the last to try to get their polls in line with reality.\u00a0Even FiveThirtyEight.com, a site founded by a former New York Times reporter that has said for months that Democrats will hold the Senate, now <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2022-election-forecast\/senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">says<\/a> the GOP has a 53% chance of taking the chamber.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re late to the game.\u00a0A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.suffolk.edu\/-\/media\/suffolk\/documents\/academics\/research-at-suffolk\/suprc\/polls\/national\/2022\/10_27_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&#038;hash=634F381113190A43CDE59FAACC5DECDD8206FDF3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> released last week by USA Today, for instance, showed Republicans are four points over Democrats, 49-45. That was a big change from USA Today\u2019s previous poll in July, when Democrats led Republicans 44-40.<\/p>\n<p>One pollster says even that poll may be low, saying many election surveys are underestimating Republican candidates by five points. Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2022\/oct\/25\/last-minute-momentum-shift-puts-senate-majority-wi\/\">predicts<\/a> a huge GOP pickup in the House, \u201cat least 54 seats, maybe one or two more.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich agrees. \u201cI would say we\u2019ll be between plus three and plus seven \u2026 in the\u00a0Senate; and we\u2019ll be between plus 20 and plus 50 in the House, with the most likely number being plus 44,\u201d Gingrich told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/exclusive-gop-could-gain-up-to-7-seats-in-senate-50-seats-in-house-gingrich_4814897.html\">The Epoch Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAlmost everywhere in the country, races are showing the Republicans tightening up,\u201d Gingrich said, noting that inflation, crime, border security, and \u201cwoke policies\u201d are all \u201ccoming together\u201d against the Democrats\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n<p>For reference, in the 2014 mid-term elections, pre-vote generic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.suffolk.edu\/-\/media\/suffolk\/documents\/academics\/research-at-suffolk\/suprc\/polls\/national\/2022\/10_27_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&#038;hash=634F381113190A43CDE59FAACC5DECDD8206FDF3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polls<\/a> put Republicans ahead by 2.4 points. But the real tally was nearly double that \u2014 Republicans spanked Democrats by 5.7 points, picking up nine U.S. Senate seats and 13 House seats.<\/p>\n<p>In 2010, USA Today and Gallup put out a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/142874\/Anti-Democratic-Sentiment-Aids-GOP-Lead-2010-Vote.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> showing Republicans leading Democrats in a generic ballot 49-43. After the vote, the GOP dominated by 6.8 points, picking up six Senate seats and 63 House seats.<\/p>\n<p>The polls have repeatedly been inaccurate in recent elections, often showing Democrats leading only to be proven wrong. \u201cWhat we have is polling in aggregated battleground states that has continued in cycle after cycle that is inaccurate,\u201d political analyst Spencer Abraham Jr. told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsmax.com\/john-gizzi\/polls-georgia-arizona\/2022\/10\/20\/id\/1092779\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Newsmax<\/a> late last month. \u201cAnd if it is inaccurate, someone needs to prove it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s no saving the Democrats now, and the pollsters know it. Watch the margin grow even wider in the coming days.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views expressed in this piece are the author\u2019s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to josephcurl@dailywire.com and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.<\/p>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since the beginning of October, there have been 32 nationwide surveys taken on what pollsters call a \u201cgeneric congressional ballot.\u201d It\u2019s a simple poll: Without being specific about candidates, the pollsters ask respondents who they will likely vote for in an election, Republicans or Democrats. Of those 32 surveys, just two outlets \u2014 Economist\/YouGov and &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":159,"featured_media":1722288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[541],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1722285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-daily-wire"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1722285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/159"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1722285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1722285\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1722288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1722285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1722285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1722285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}