{"id":1720827,"date":"2022-11-02T06:30:27","date_gmt":"2022-11-02T10:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1720827"},"modified":"2022-11-02T06:34:46","modified_gmt":"2022-11-02T10:34:46","slug":"can-china-invade-and-conquer-taiwan-study-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/can-china-invade-and-conquer-taiwan-study-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Can China Invade and Conquer Taiwan? Study Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fcan-china-invade-and-conquer-taiwan-study-ukraine%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1720827&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p><span>The Russian invasion of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/11\/can-putin-bomb-and-drone-strike-ukraine-into-defeat\/\">Ukraine<\/a> and China\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/10\/chinas-nightmare-b-52-bombers-might-soon-deploy-to-australia\/\">rising belligerence<\/a> under President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/07\/gordon-chang-joe-biden-should-cancel-his-call-with-chinas-xi-jinping\/\">Xi Jinping<\/a> has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china-revealing-its-plan-for-taiwan-invasion-islands-foreign-minister-says\/a-62988550\"><span>raised concern<\/span><\/a><span> about <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/oct\/25\/xi-jinping-party-purge-china-taiwan-invasion-risk\"><span>a possible<\/span><\/a><span> Chinese move <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/2022\/10\/03\/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053\"><span>against Taiwan<\/span><\/a><span>. China just completed a major congress of its Communist Party. Xi engineered a third term for himself as president, breaking the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.prcleader.org\/pei-september-2022?utm_source=pocket_mylist\"><span>vague, post-Deng Xiaoping norm<\/span><\/a><span> that Chinese presidents should only serve two terms. He now looks to be president for life, and the party congress <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2022\/10\/chinas-20th-party-congress-escalates-cross-strait-tensions\/\"><span>escalated China\u2019s rhetoric<\/span><\/a><span> on Taiwan.\u00a0<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_66525\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-66525\" class=\"wp-image-66525\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Taiwan-Submarine-1200x675-1.jpg\" alt=\"Taiwan\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Taiwan-Submarine-1200x675-1.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Taiwan-Submarine-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Taiwan-Submarine-768x432-1.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Taiwan-Submarine-1024x576-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Taiwan-Submarine-600x337-1.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Taiwan-Submarine.jpg 1344w\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-66525\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taiwan\u2019s World War II Submarine. Image Credit: ROC Navy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Xi likely needs some kind of legitimating move for his now permanent presidency. Post-Mao Zedong, Chinese elites have generally preferred \u2018collective leadership\u2019 to dictatorship. There will be unhappiness in the party over Xi\u2019s move. Worse, the economy is slow because of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.channelnewsasia.com\/commentary\/china-xi-jinping-zero-covid-economy-way-out-3017096\"><span>Xi\u2019s stubborn insistence on his \u2018zero-covid\u2019<\/span><\/a><span> policy. Without the mandate of an election, Xi and the party\u2019s legitimacy rests on performance \u2013 the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/business.time.com\/2012\/10\/01\/dispelling-the-myth-of-chinese-efficiency\/\"><span>party\u2019s well-known claim<\/span><\/a><span> that its rule is more efficient and technocratic than sloppy, disorganized parliamentary democracy. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>As this slips away under declining economic growth, unification with Taiwan, and the nationalist ideological satisfaction it promises, looms larger. Taiwan will never agree to unification while the communist party is power on the mainland. <\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>So Xi, if he is to follow through on this issue which he keeps emphasizing, will find he must use force.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Is Ukraine a Model for Taking Taiwan?<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Much of the current wave of anxiety turns on the size asymmetry between the two sides. Mainland China is vastly larger, particularly in population and economic weight. Its <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/media.defense.gov\/2021\/Nov\/03\/2002885874\/-1\/-1\/0\/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF\"><span>military is big and modernizing<\/span><\/a><span>. Its navy particularly is growing to support China\u2019s claims in the East and South China Sea. The Ukraine war too has acted as something of a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2022\/10\/ukraines-dream-could-be-taiwans-nightmare\/\"><span>model<\/span><\/a><span> for <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/08\/03\/world\/europe\/china-russia-taiwan-ukraine-analysis.html\"><span>analysts<\/span><\/a><span>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ukraine and Taiwan are both small, recently democratized states on the periphery of the American alliance network. Both are menaced by a much larger, neighboring autocracy with revanchist claims denying their sovereignty. Both would be heavily dependent on outside help, particularly from the US, to win.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>But Ukraine is also a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/03\/russias-disaster-of-a-war-in-ukraine-means-china-wont-invade-taiwan\/\"><span>model for Taiwanese resistance<\/span><\/a><span>. Like Taiwan, its population is deeply committed to defending its freedoms and self-rule against potential aggression. Like Ukraine, Taiwan would almost certainly <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2022\/03\/ukraines-lessons-for-taiwan\/\"><span>mobilize its entire society<\/span><\/a><span> to resist invasion. Just as the Russian invasion is now fighting the entire country of Ukraine, so will China in Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>China is economically much stronger than Russia and \u2013 we assume \u2013 that its military is more capable. And Taiwan of course is smaller than Ukraine. So the imbalance is striking. But the Ukraine war illustrates the risks China faces. Everyone assumed, before the war, that the Russian military was skilled and fearsome, but we have since learned that it is corrupt, poorly-led, and disorganized. China\u2019s military has not fought a major action since 1979 (with Vietnam, where it fared poorly), and corruption and officers selected by politics, not skill, are known problems in autocratic militaries.\u00a0<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><b>Taiwan Has Geography Advantage<\/b>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>A core problem Ukraine has faced is its tough geography. Russia abuts it directly for a thousand miles. Russia\u2019s initial invasion moved on multiple axes simultaneously, stretching Ukrainian forces thin. It was <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/03\/bleed-putin-dry-in-ukraine-will-nato-support-an-insurgency-against-russia\/\"><span>widely assumed<\/span><\/a><span> the Russians would win quickly.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>Taiwan, by contrast, has excellent geography for defending against a Chinese invasion. It is an island. It is 110 miles from the mainland. That is five times the length of the English Channel. This means a Chinese invasion would require an enormous invasion force, on the scale of the allied D-Day effort of 1944. Amphibious operations are notoriously difficult. Successful ones are rare in world history, and China\u2019s military has never done anything like this before. The logistical planning alone, if we take D-Day as a model, would require years. The invasion fleet would be gargantuan, making it nearly impossible to hide, and so giving Taiwan much lead time to prepare.\u00a0<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>The Chinese invasion fleet would not automatically enjoy air dominance either, as the Allies did in 1944. If the US were to openly help Taiwan, as President Joe Biden has increasingly suggested, it is likely that Taiwanese and US airpower could sink landing craft en route. And these invaders who did survive the crossing would face hostile beach landings and high mountains in the island\u2019s east where defenders could hold out at length,<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>In short, it will be much harder to take Taiwan than Xi and the Chinese media admit. For all the growth of China\u2019s military, there is little sign it is developing the enormous amphibious capability necessary to invade a distant, heavily-armed island. As with D-Day 1944, this would mean hundreds of ship just across the strait, substantial infantry training for a marine landing, and a massive build-up of local naval and airpower to ensure landing craft survive the long crossing. This is not happening much, no matter Xi\u2019s bluster. Indeed, given the staggering logistical complexity of this operation, it far more likely that China just devastates the island with rocket fire out of frustration than actually takes it.<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p><em><span><strong>Expert Biography:<\/strong>\u00a0Dr. Robert E. Kelly (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Robert_E_Kelly\"><span>@Robert_E_Kelly<\/span><\/a><span>;\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/robertedwinkelly.com\/\"><span>RoberEdwinKelly.com<\/span><\/a><span>) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine and China\u2019s rising belligerence under President Xi Jinping has raised concern about a possible Chinese move against Taiwan. China just completed a major congress of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1720830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1720827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1720827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1720827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1720827\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1720830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1720827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1720827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1720827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}