{"id":1718457,"date":"2022-10-31T12:18:36","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T16:18:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1718457"},"modified":"2022-10-31T12:49:44","modified_gmt":"2022-10-31T16:49:44","slug":"ann-coulter-why-a-red-wave-is-suddenly-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/ann-coulter-why-a-red-wave-is-suddenly-possible\/","title":{"rendered":"Ann Coulter: Why a Red Wave Is Suddenly Possible"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fann-coulter-why-a-red-wave-is-suddenly-possible%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1718457&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/2022.10.31-03.41-thepoliticalinsider-635fec9696239.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<p>After months of warning you about the GOP\u2019s chronic overconfidence problem, now I\u2019m feeling overconfident! Inasmuch as I will be giving a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eventbrite.com\/e\/ann-coulter-at-cornell-university-tickets-445366151147\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">speech at my alma mater, Cornell University<\/a>, the day after the election, I\u2019m about to do something very stupid: make an election prediction.<\/p>\n<p>My reasoning is, here we are, three weeks from the election, and this week, two major polls, <a href=\"https:\/\/harvardharrispoll.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/HHP_Oct2022_KeyResults.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harvard Harris<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2022\/10\/18\/upshot\/times-siena-poll-toplines.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Times Sienna<\/a>,\u00a0suddenly show Republicans gaining ground. This triggered a primordial memory from the 1980 election, the first presidential race I paid attention to.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s when I discovered the iron rule of election polls: They will never, ever be wrong in favor of Republicans. Another is that polls will generally show the Democrat winning until the election gets close \u2014 and the media finally start telling the truth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>RELATED: <a href=\"https:\/\/thepoliticalinsider.com\/democrats-in-panic-mode-obama-to-campaign-in-georgia-cryin-chuck-schumer-caught-on-hot-mic-saying-were-going-downhill\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Democrats in Panic Mode: Obama to Campaign in Georgia, Cryin\u2019 Chuck Schumer Caught on Hot Mic Saying \u2018We\u2019re Going Downhill\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Thus, for example, after being hectored for most of 1980 that Ronald Reagan was headed for another Goldwater-style fiasco, here\u2019s the sort of thing a teenager would have read in The New York Times weeks before he won a landslide victory against President Jimmy Carter, taking 489 electoral college votes to Carter\u2019s 49.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sept. 15, 1980: \u201cReagan and Carter Even In Washington Post Poll\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sept. 21, 1980 \u201cAllowing for the margin of error, the polls indicate a virtual dead heat between Mr.Carter and Mr. Reagan\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Oct. 23, 1980: \u201cPoll Shows President Has Pulled To Even Position With Reagan\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In mid-September, the Times\u2019 Anthony Lewis painted a vivid picture of Reagan\u2019s coming annihilation, citing a bunch of state polls:<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 \u201cA recent New York Times poll of registered likely voters [in New York] showed Carter leading Reagan, 44 to 38.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 47; CARTER: 44<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 In Washington state, \u201ca poll for the Carter campaign put the president ahead by 3 points against Reagan.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"subscribe\" class=\"email-signup inarticle\">\n<h4>Support Conservative Voices!<\/h4>\n<h5><strong>Sign up to receive the latest<\/strong> political news, insight, and commentary delivered directly to your inbox.<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 50; CARTER: 37<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 In Illinois, a \u201cpoll for Carter\u2019s campaign put him ahead by 5 points.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 50; CARTER 48.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 In Connecticut, a \u201cHartford Courant poll showed: Reagan 36, Carter 35.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 48; CARTER: 39<\/p>\n<p>A month later, the Times produced yet more polls of gloom:<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Oct. 9, 1980 headline: \u201cTexas Looming As A Close Battle Between President And Reagan\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 55%; CARTER: 41%<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Oct. 16, 1980, headline: \u201cOhio Race Expected To Be Close As Labor Mobilizes For President\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 52, CARTER 41<\/p>\n<p><strong>RELATED: <a href=\"https:\/\/thepoliticalinsider.com\/msnbc-guest-compares-concerns-over-inflation-to-nazi-germany-again\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MSNBC Guest Compares Concerns Over Inflation to Nazi Germany\u2026 Again<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>And then Reagan won more electoral college votes than any non-incumbent in history. You\u2019d think the polls would have picked up on the fact that history was about to be made. Nope!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This is not just an enjoyable stroll down memory lane, though it is that. It is to remind Republican-leaning voters, even in seemingly blue strongholds like New York, Oregon and Washington, to please vote. Because, win or lose, one thing polls will <em>never<\/em>\u00a0do is overestimate a Republican\u2019s chances.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>1976<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Sept. 23, Roper Poll:\u00a0<em>Carter leads Gerald Ford 46%-29%.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: Jimmy Carter won by 2 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>1984<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Oct. 15, The New York Daily News poll:\u00a0<em>Reagan 45%; Walter Mondale 41%.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: Reagan beat Mondale by nearly 20 points, 58.8% to 40%.<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>1988<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Oct. 5, New York Times\/CBS News Poll:\u00a0<em>George H.W. Bush 45%; Michael Dukakis 43%.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: Bush 53.4%; Dukakis 45.6%.<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>1992<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u2013Oct. 18, Newsweek poll: <em>Bill Clinton 46%; GHW Bush 31%<\/em><\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: Clinton: 43%; GHW Bush: 37.7%<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>1996<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Oct. 22, The New York Times\/CBS News Poll:\u00a0<em>Clinton 55%; Bob Dole 33%.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: Clinton 49%; Dole 40%.<\/p>\n<p><span><strong>2000<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2014 Oct. 3, The New York Times\/CBS News Poll:\u00a0<em>Al Gore 45%; George W. Bush 39%.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>ACTUAL RESULT: Bush 47.9%; Gore 48.4%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>RELATED: <a href=\"https:\/\/thepoliticalinsider.com\/multiple-reports-indicate-democrats-freaking-out-after-fettermans-debate-debacle\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Multiple Reports Indicate Democrats \u2018Freaking Out\u2019 After Fetterman\u2019s Debate Debacle<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For some mysterious reason, election polls were pretty accurate in the 2004, 2008 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/11\/08\/us\/politics\/data-devotees-emerge-victorious-in-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2012<\/a>\u00a0elections. Perhaps pollsters had gotten better. Maybe they noticed that people sometimes\u00a0<em>do<\/em>\u00a0look back at their forecasts. Or it could be that Republicans were running such losers those years that it would be nearly impossible for anyone to underestimate their performance.<\/p>\n<p>But, boy, did the pollsters make up for any inadvertent honesty when Donald Trump ran in 2016!<\/p>\n<p>The Times had the best pollsters in the business and sophisticated computer modeling. Based on their high-tech number-crunching, on Oct. 18, the paper reported: \u201cHillary has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/newsgraphics\/2016\/10\/18\/presidential-forecast-updates\/newsletter.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">91% chance<\/a>\u00a0to win.\u201d On Election Day, the forecasters were a little less exuberant, announcing that Hillary had a mere\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2016\/upshot\/presidential-polls-forecast.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">85% chance<\/a>\u00a0of winning. A Trump victory, the Times said, was as likely as \u201can NFL kicker miss[ing] a 37-yard field goal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>We know how that turned out.<\/p>\n<p>On Election Day 2020, Times\u2019s forecasters exulted that Joe Biden was ahead \u201cby more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2020\/presidential-polls-trump-biden?action=click&#038;block=more_in_recirc&#038;impression_id=32740d90-1267-11eb-835a-a1aa2a3975c2&#038;index=0&#038;pgtype=Article&#038;region=footer#strong-results-for-biden-in-the-sun-belt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">8 points<\/a>\u00a0nationwide \u2014 the largest lead a candidate has held in the final polls since Bill Clinton in 1996.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He won by 4 points.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe it\u2019s not a wild and reckless prediction, but the news this week suggests that the media are slowly edging up to the truth, and that Republicans could be on track to well outperform the polls.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This would be a good year for it. The Senate map, combined with five GOPs retiring, make 2022 a tough year for Republicans, who are <em>defending<\/em>\u00a0 seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina, and trying to flip at least one state out of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia for a bare majority.<\/p>\n<p><strong>RELATED: <a href=\"https:\/\/thepoliticalinsider.com\/msnbcs-chris-hayes-has-a-new-conspiracy-theory-gop-will-tank-economy-on-purpose-if-they-win\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MSNBC\u2019s Chris Hayes Has a New Conspiracy Theory \u2013 GOP Will Tank Economy on Purpose if They Win<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But Republicans winning requires that voters not be discouraged by the polls and <em>remember to vote<\/em>, even when the media tell you it\u2019s hopeless, like in New York, Arizona and Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n<p>Mostly, I just want to wake up the morning after the election and find out Dr. Mehmet Oz has won in Pennsylvania and defeated that slovenly, goatee-sporting Michael Moore-wannabe, John Fetterman, who is passionate about only two things: not bathing and releasing vicious murderers. And that Lee Zeldin has beaten the demented, \u201crelease all the criminals!\u201d New York governor, Kathy Hochul, with the crazy \u201cWhatever Happened to Baby Jane?\u201d makeup.<\/p>\n<p>Then, the world will make sense again.<\/p>\n<p><em>Syndicated with permission from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/anncoulter.substack.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Ann Coulter\u2019s Unsafe Substack<\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After months of warning you about the GOP\u2019s chronic overconfidence problem, now I\u2019m feeling overconfident! Inasmuch as I will be giving a\u00a0speech at my alma mater, Cornell University, the day<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1718460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[547],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1718457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-bongino-report"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1718457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1718457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1718457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1718460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1718457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1718457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1718457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}