{"id":1713843,"date":"2022-10-27T16:03:55","date_gmt":"2022-10-27T20:03:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1713843"},"modified":"2022-10-27T16:04:19","modified_gmt":"2022-10-27T20:04:19","slug":"analyst-election-polls-underestimating-republican-margins-by-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analyst-election-polls-underestimating-republican-margins-by-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: Election Polls Underestimating Republican Margins By 5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fanalyst-election-polls-underestimating-republican-margins-by-5%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1713843&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>The polls they are a changin\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>In a generic ballot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.suffolk.edu\/-\/media\/suffolk\/documents\/academics\/research-at-suffolk\/suprc\/polls\/national\/2022\/10_27_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&#038;hash=634F381113190A43CDE59FAACC5DECDD8206FDF3\">released<\/a> this week by USA Today, Republicans are up four points over Democrats, 49-45.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a huge change from USA Today\u2019s previous poll in July when Democrats led Republicans 44-40.<\/p>\n<p>So voters are clearly moving hard \u2014 and picking Republican candidates. But the polls are <em>still<\/em> underestimating the GOP strength, one pollster says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think the \u2018polling averages\u2019 are going to end up (on average) underestimating the Republican margins by a net of 5%,\u201d Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker told The Daily Wire in an email. \u201cI think the GOP will end up with 54 Senate seats. I don\u2019t track House races district-by-district, but I generally think the Republican Party will net a gain of somewhere between 25 and 35 seats.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe correct way to interpret poll numbers is not to focus on what they are, but what they say. Over the last two weeks support for Republican candidates has been moving up, while support for Democrats has either dropped or remained frozen in place,\u201d Coker said.<\/p>\n<p>Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) went even further. \u201cI would say we\u2019ll be between plus three and plus seven \u2026 in the\u00a0Senate; and we\u2019ll be between plus 20 and plus 50 in the House, with the most likely number being plus 44,\u201d Gingrich <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/exclusive-gop-could-gain-up-to-7-seats-in-senate-50-seats-in-house-gingrich_4814897.html?utm_source=partner&#038;utm_campaign=BonginoReport\">told<\/a> The Epoch Times.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAlmost everywhere in the country, races are showing the Republicans tightening up,\u201d Gingrich said, noting that inflation, crime, border security, and \u201cwoke policies\u201d are all \u201ccoming together\u201d against the Democrats\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n<p>For reference, in the 2014 midterm elections, pre-vote generic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.suffolk.edu\/-\/media\/suffolk\/documents\/academics\/research-at-suffolk\/suprc\/polls\/national\/2022\/10_27_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&#038;hash=634F381113190A43CDE59FAACC5DECDD8206FDF3\">polls<\/a> put Republicans ahead by 2.4 points. But the real tally was nearly double that \u2014 Republicans spanked Democrats by 5.7 points, picking up nine U.S. Senate seats and 13 House seats.<\/p>\n<p>In 2010, USA Today and Gallup put out a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/142874\/Anti-Democratic-Sentiment-Aids-GOP-Lead-2010-Vote.aspx\">poll<\/a> showing Republicans leading Democrats in a generic ballot 49-43. After the vote, the GOP dominated by 6.8 points, picking up six Senate seats and 63 House seats.<\/p>\n<p>But things nowadays are far different from those elections. A recent poll showed that 95% of Americans are concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, as the economy is a top issue for voters in deciding who to support in the midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p>A wide majority of Americans, 73%, say they are \u201cvery\u201d concerned about the price of goods and food, while 22% say they are \u201csomewhat\u201d concerned, according to the Pew Research Center poll <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2022\/10\/20\/midterm-voting-intentions-are-divided-economic-gloom-persists\/\">released<\/a> Thursday. What\u2019s more, 93% of voters are concerned about the price of energy, and 87% are concerned about the cost of housing, the poll showed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2022\/10\/20\/midterm-voting-intentions-are-divided-economic-gloom-persists\/\">Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The makeup of the House right now is 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans and three vacant seats, so Republicans don\u2019t need many seats to take control of the chamber.<\/p>\n<p>The polls have repeatedly been inaccurate in recent elections, often showing Democrats leading only to be proven wrong. \u201cWhat we have is polling in aggregated battleground states that has continued in cycle after cycle that is inaccurate,\u201d political analyst Spencer Abraham Jr. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsmax.com\/john-gizzi\/polls-georgia-arizona\/2022\/10\/20\/id\/1092779\/\">told<\/a> Newsmax over the weekend. \u201cAnd if it is inaccurate, someone needs to prove it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe oft-cited Quinnipiac Poll, for example, released a much-discussed poll on Oct. 12 on the closely watched Georgia Senate race. It showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading Republican challenger Herschel Walker by 52% to 45% among likely voters,\u201d Newsmax wrote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut looking at the record of Quinnipiac in the three election cycles since 2016, it overweighs Democrats by 2.6 percent,\u201d Abraham said. \u201cSo this race is probably a statistical tie now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>The views expressed in this piece are the author\u2019s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Joseph Curl has covered politics for 35 years, including 12 years as White House correspondent for a national newspaper. He was also the a.m. editor of the Drudge Report for four years. Send tips to josephcurl@dailywire.com and follow him on Twitter @josephcurl.<\/p>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The polls they are a changin\u2019. In a generic ballot released this week by USA Today, Republicans are up four points over Democrats, 49-45. That\u2019s a huge change from USA Today\u2019s previous poll in July when Democrats led Republicans 44-40. So voters are clearly moving hard \u2014 and picking Republican candidates. But the polls are &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1682390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[541],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1713843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-daily-wire"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1713843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1713843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1713843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1682390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1713843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1713843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1713843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}