{"id":1687566,"date":"2022-10-13T07:08:07","date_gmt":"2022-10-13T11:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1687566"},"modified":"2022-10-13T07:08:09","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T11:08:09","slug":"evidence-mounting-that-house-is-a-lost-cause-for-dems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/evidence-mounting-that-house-is-a-lost-cause-for-dems\/","title":{"rendered":"Evidence Mounting That House Is a Lost Cause for Dems"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fevidence-mounting-that-house-is-a-lost-cause-for-dems%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1687566&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.townhall.com\/townhall\/reu\/o\/2022\/175\/fcacce46-9140-487c-a070-b69fe4ce4a96-1110x740.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>As summer came to a close and November\u2019s mid-term approached, a narrative <a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/sister-toldjah\/2022\/10\/04\/update-dems-in-disarray-as-comeback-narrative-completely-falls-apart-n637557\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">began to build<\/a> suggesting that Democrats could retain the House or limit their losses to just a few seats. That was largely driven by political sites like Nate Silver\u2019s that produce garbage-in, garbage-out election models that completely ignored the fundamentals of the electorate.<\/p>\n<p>But as I\u2019ve <a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/bonchie\/2022\/08\/07\/another-key-fundamental-contradicts-the-democrat-comeback-narrative-n608519\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said many times<\/a>, ignoring the fundamentals in favor of historically awful polling is foolhardy, and evidence is now mounting that the House of Representatives is now a lost cause for the Democratic Party. The good vibes have been replaced by dogfights in districts that aren\u2019t even supposed to be in play, and there\u2019s every reason to think things get worse as election day approaches.<\/p>\n<p>For example, in Rhode Island\u2019s 2nd District, Republican Allan Fung leads Democrat Seth Magaziner by 8 points.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEW: Time for Dems to break glass in case of emergency in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/RI02?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#RI02<\/a>?<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Globe_RI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@Globe_RI<\/a> poll out today finds GOP&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AllanFungRI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@AllanFungRI<\/a> leading by 8 pts \u2013 outside the MoE and even better than his 6-pt lead in our poll last week<\/p>\n<p>Fung 45%<br \/>Magaziner 37%<br \/>Gilbert 5%<br \/>Undecided 13% <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mkvowP2RQC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/mkvowP2RQC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ted Nesi (@TedNesi) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TedNesi\/status\/1579775313571102721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 11, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>That poll was a red alert for Democrats given that even after you allow for the changes made in <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Rhode_Island%27s_2nd_Congressional_District\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">redistricting<\/a>, Joe Biden would have won it by a whopping 14 points. That is not a district a Republican is supposed to be competitive in if Democrats have any shot at holding the House, much less a district a Republican is supposed to be leading by eight in. A poll showing Fung tied would have been bad enough.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t stop there, though. In Oregon\u2019s 6th district, the news isn\u2019t much better for Democrats. After districting is <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022#Effect_of_redistricting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">taken into account<\/a>, Joe Biden would have it by 13 points in 2020. Today, Republican Mike Erickson leads by 5 points.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8 Oregon House District 6 Poll<\/p>\n<p>(R) Mike Erickson 44% (+5)<br \/>(D) Andrea Salinas 39%<\/p>\n<p>\u29bf Cygnal (R)<br \/>\u29bf 09\/29-09\/30<br \/>\u29bf 400 LV <br \/>\u29bf MoE \u00b14.83% <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fpQqNQzPai\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/fpQqNQzPai<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPolls2022\/status\/1578014713480634370?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 6, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>What makes that result even more stunning, though, is that if you cite Andrea Salinas\u2019 own Democrat <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/house\/2022\/oregon\/6\/?states=NV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">internal<\/a>, it still only has her up one point. That\u2019s a bad place to be in a year that contains strong headwinds against the incumbent political party.<\/p>\n<p>Continuing that theme is a race in Northern Virginia\u2019s 10th district, which is a national stronghold for Democrats that is rated D+19. In other words, it is not supposed to be a district that is in play. It\u2019s not supposed to require national money from the DCCC. It\u2019s certainly not supposed to need a sharply negative turn in campaigning less than a month before the election.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You don&#8217;t do this in a Biden +19 district if the House is still in play for Democrats. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gu3K6sjeUW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/gu3K6sjeUW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bonchieredstate\/status\/1580169774985662466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 12, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Candidates prefer to remain above the fray and unsullied if at all possible. They only get into the mud when they think they have to, and the only reason Democrat Jennifer Wexton would do so at this point is if her campaign believes Republican Hung Cao is within striking distance. And to be frank, if that\u2019s the case, there is a zero percent chance Democrats hold the House.<\/p>\n<p>But I\u2019ll go further. I think all this data adds up to something bigger: <em>A Red Wave<\/em>. You\u2019ve got districts that Democrats are having to viciously defend and could possibly lose that weren\u2019t even on the table a few months ago during the \u201cDemocrats are resurgent\u201d phase of political modeling. If RI-2 and OR-6 are in play, then there are lots of D+1 to D+4 seats that are all but lost now. I see nothing to make me think Republicans only take a few seats in November. I think getting over 240 is not only possible again, but probable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\nTrending on Redstate Video\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As summer came to a close and November\u2019s mid-term approached, a narrative began to build suggesting that Democrats could retain the House or limit their losses to just a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1894590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1687566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1687566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1687566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1687566\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1894590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1687566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1687566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1687566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}