{"id":1680958,"date":"2022-10-10T06:08:21","date_gmt":"2022-10-10T10:08:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1680958"},"modified":"2022-10-10T06:10:34","modified_gmt":"2022-10-10T10:10:34","slug":"a-cautious-fed-sets-up-stagflation-after-a-just-right-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/a-cautious-fed-sets-up-stagflation-after-a-just-right-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"A Cautious Fed Sets Up \u201cStagflation\u201d After a \u201cJust Right\u201d Jobs Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fa-cautious-fed-sets-up-stagflation-after-a-just-right-jobs-report%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1680958&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Markets are unstable. And the Fed prefers lengthy malaise to a sharp, short recession.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><em>Commentary<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">September jobs<\/a>\u00a0printed at 263,000 new\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-jobs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">jobs<\/a>, somewhat above the consensus estimate of 250,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-jobs\">jobs<\/a>. That\u2019s 52,000 fewer jobs\u00a0 than were created in August 2022 and 161 fewer jobs than September 2021. July revisions added another 11,000 jobs; August was unrevised. It is generally believed that 200,000\u2013250,000 jobs are required to accommodate population growth.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-unemployment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unemployment<\/a>\u00a0rate was 3.5 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from last month and down 1.2 percentage points from 4.7 percent last September. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t01.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">labor force participation<\/a>\u00a0rate was 62.3 percent, down from 62.4 percent that printed in August and up 60 basis points (bps) from last September, when it printed at 61.7. (A basis point is\u00a0defined as 1\/100th of a percentage point.)<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4781802\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2022\/10\/07\/Screenshot-64.png\"><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4781802 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2022\/10\/07\/Screenshot-64.png\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"652\" height=\"427\" \/><\/noscript><\/figcaption><\/a> (September Jobs Creation by Average Weekly Wages by Sector of Employment \/ Copyright 2022, The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy)<\/figure>\n<p>We are largely at the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PAYEMS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">same level of jobs<\/a>\u00a0that we had prior to the pandemic, 153 million, but the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-jobs-creation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">jobs creation<\/a>\u00a0trajectory that would have occurred in that period is lost, likely permanently. The question now is whether, with a slowing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-economy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">economy<\/a>\u00a0and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-federal-reserve\">Federal Reserve<\/a> (Fed) tightening interest rates, the current trajectory can be maintained or whether the job creation will flatten or decline. We anticipate it will be the latter.<\/p>\n<p>The majority of jobs were, again, in lower-wage sectors, such as leisure ad hospitality, and sectors that are largely government supported, such as education and health services. That said, the\u00a0higher-wage sector of professional and business services also showed strong jobs performance, at 46,000 jobs (albeit fewer than last month), with an average weekly wage of more than $1,400.<\/p>\n<p>Real wages\u2014which we define as annualized average weekly wages minus the <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL\">12-month average trimmed mean inflation rate<\/a> for personal consumption expenditures, for August (the latest available data)\u2014currently 4.74 percent, were mixed, with most sectors suffering real wage losses, as detailed in our quarterly chart of real annual year-over-year wages. \u00a0(See the real wage data below. We report this data at the end of each quarter.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Screenshot-63.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy wp-image-4781893 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/themes\/eet\/images\/white.png\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Screenshot-63.png\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"1040\" height=\"553\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4781893 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Screenshot-63.png\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"1040\" height=\"553\" \/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<h2>Other Data<\/h2>\n<p>Quantitative tightening is always disruptive to markets. Milton Friedman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/1976\/press-release\/\">won the Nobel Prize<\/a> in economics for proving that Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening between the spring of 1928 through October 1929\u00a0 was the proximate cause of the Crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/boarddocs\/speeches\/2002\/20021108\/\">admitted<\/a> such in 2002.<\/p>\n<p>The late former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, borrowing from psychology\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessballs.com\/johariwindowmodeldiagram.pdf\">Johari Window<\/a>, once<a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/20180320091111\/http:\/\/archive.defense.gov\/Transcripts\/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636#selection-1053.109-1053.485\"> said:\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u2026 There are known knowns; \u2026things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; \u2026 things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns\u2014[things] we don\u2019t know we don\u2019t know \u2026 [I]t is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Late last month, we saw how such \u201cunknown unknowns\u201d can grievously disrupt markets in a tightening monetary environment\u00a0 in the UK gilt market (gilts are similar to U.S. Treasurys). I wrote about the disruption at the time, noting that \u201cthe global markets are decidedly unstable\u201d (although <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/09\/30\/business\/bonds-pensions-bank-of-england.html?searchResultPosition=1\">this piece<\/a> by New York Times reporter Joe Rennison provided a more detailed explanation).<\/p>\n<p>Basically, a sleepy and obscure corner of the UK gilt\u00a0 market called the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/l\/ldi.asp\">\u00a0Liability Driven Investment, or LDI<\/a>\u00a0strategy, was adversely affected by rising rates. The value of\u00a0 gilts fell as interest rates increased. Pension funds, which tend to move slowly, incurred margin calls that caused a \u201c\u2019self-reinforcing spiral\u2019\u201d that threatened \u201csevere disruption of core funding markets and consequent widespread financial instability,\u201d according to a letter from Jon Cunliffe, the Bank of England\u2019s (BOE) deputy governor for financial stability, which was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/09c43669-18a9-4476-9a95-044a2448d400\">quoted<\/a> in the Financial Times.<\/p>\n<p>The market pressures have been ameliorated, somewhat, only because the BOE intervened to prop-up the gilt market, both by promising to buy them and by delaying a planned sale of gilts it had acquired during the pandemic. \u00a0n effect, the BOE ceded the ground it had made on tightening UK monetary policy and chose, instead, to offer the market greater liquidity. (Notably, the BOE has not bought gilts the last couple of days, and yields again spiked, so the matter has not been fully resolved.) The stresses from the UK gilt shock are reflected in the rightmost peak of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialresearch.gov\/financial-stress-index\/\">this chart<\/a> from the Treasury Department\u2019s Office of Financial Research (OFR).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/img.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/uploads\/2022\/10\/06\/Screenshot-62-1200x533.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy wp-image-4779777 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/themes\/eet\/images\/white.png\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Screenshot-62.png\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"1366\" height=\"607\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4779777 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Screenshot-62.png\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"1366\" height=\"607\" \/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>(Source: The OFR Financial Stress Index)<\/p>\n<p>There are also market concerns with the rhetoric and posturing over the war in Ukraine. If, as Samuel Johnson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/quotes\/192643-depend-upon-it-sir-when-a-man-knows-he-is\">wrote<\/a>, \u201cNothing focuses the mind like a hanging,\u201d nothing will focus the markets like the prospect of nuclear war. A sell-off could be triggered instantaneously if there is a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biblegateway.com\/passage\/?search=Matthew%2024%3A6-13&amp;version=NIV\">war or rumors of wars<\/a>\u201d involving nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n<p>At this writing, the inversion on the two-year and 10-year Treasurys is 40 bps, up from 21 bps in our August jobs report. We would have liked to see the Fed reduce its balance sheet sooner and\u00a0 more aggressively, as we have desired\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/federal-reserve-use-care-to-rein-in-inflation_4144084.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">since last year<\/a>, but\u00a0 now, with concerns about market liquidity,\u00a0 any such reductions must be done with extreme caution. Had the Fed started to reduce its balance sheet sooner, we would be in a better place with less or no inversion. We fear the Fed may be too late and, consequently, the U.S. economy will have to suffer longer-term <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-inflation\">inflation<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Institute for Supply Management\u2019s print of the Manufacturers Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index, the\u00a0Manufacturing PMI,\u00a0registered growth, just barely, at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/pmi\/september\/\">50.9 percent<\/a> in September, down from 52.8 percent in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/pmi\/august\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August<\/a>. The Institute\u2019s Services PMI<sup>\u00a0<\/sup>for September\u00a0showed growth at<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/services\/september\/\"> 56.7 percent<\/a>, down slightly from August\u2019s 56.9.\u00a0A reading above 50 signals growth.<\/p>\n<p>The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">JOLTS<\/a>), released Tuesday, showed that the number and rate of job openings slowed to 10,629,000\u00a0and by 6.2 percent, respectively, from 11,170,000.<\/p>\n<p>Second-quarter 2022 revised non-farm business labor productivity and costs, released on Sept. 1, fell 4.1 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively. As we noted in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/june-jobs-beats-estimates-recession-is-a-jump-ball_4582756.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">June jobs report<\/a>, first-quarter 2022 labor productivity dropped to its lowest level since 1947. As a consequence, unit labor costs for that quarter increased 12.6 percent, thus adding to our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-inflation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">inflation<\/a>. While\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/prod2.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">second-quarter 2022 data<\/a>\u00a0showed improvement over first quarter 2022, increasing productivity should be a public policy priority because it will help trim inflation as well as curtail a recession.<\/p>\n<p>Household\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/housedebt\/default.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">debt service<\/a>\u00a0as a percentage of disposable personal income keeps rising, particularly consumer debt. As\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported<\/a>\u00a0by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: \u201cCredit card balances saw their largest year-over-year percentage increase in more than 20 years, while aggregate limits on cards marked their largest increase in over 10 years.\u201d This is to be expected in an inflationary\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-economy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">economy<\/a>, when wages fail to keep pace with higher <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-prices\">prices<\/a> and workers turn to their credit cards and consumer loans to maintain their lifestyles.<\/p>\n<p>Total business inventories remain ridiculously high, and the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/BUSINV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">highest on record<\/a>, a factor mentioned by many of the respondents in the ISM report.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Housing\u00a0starts<\/a>\u00a0in August, released Sept. \u00a020, were\u00a0at\u00a0a\u00a0seasonally\u00a0adjusted\u00a0annual\u00a0rate\u00a0of\u00a01,575,000. This\u00a0is\u00a012.2\u00a0percent above\u00a0the\u00a0revised\u00a0July\u00a0estimate\u00a0of\u00a01,404,000,\u00a0but\u00a0is\u00a00.1\u00a0percent below\u00a0the\u00a0August\u00a02021\u00a0rate\u00a0of\u00a01,576,000.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investors.com\/news\/economy\/ibdtipp-poll-economic-optimism-index\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IBD\/TIPP Index of Economic Optimism<\/a>\u00a0for September printed at 44.7, up 17.3 percent from August. (The index signals optimism at 50 or above.)<\/p>\n<h2>Commentary<\/h2>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow?panel=3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is projecting third quarter 2022<\/a>\u00a0to print at about 2.6 percent growth. The projection is based on enhanced growth in personal consumption expenditures,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/iTable\/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">principally<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a0 a jump in net exports.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/atlanta-fed_subcomponent-contributions-to-gdpnow-real-gdp-growth-forecasts-1.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy aligncenter wp-image-4781505 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/assets\/themes\/eet\/images\/white.png\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/atlanta-fed_subcomponent-contributions-to-gdpnow-real-gdp-growth-forecasts-1.jpeg\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"650\" height=\"500\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4781505 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/atlanta-fed_subcomponent-contributions-to-gdpnow-real-gdp-growth-forecasts-1.jpeg\" alt=\"Epoch Times Photo\" width=\"650\" height=\"500\" \/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>(Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)<\/p>\n<p>The two quarters of decline in the first and second quarters of 2022 printed at a technical recession, which will need to be confirmed by the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/research\/business-cycle-dating\/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Bureau of Economic Research<\/a>\u00a0Business Cycle Dating Committee, likely after the second revision of the data, on Sept. 29. However, we reiterate our thesis that much of the negative GDP (gross domestic product) in the first and second quarters of 2022 was attributable to an anomaly with imports and inventories, as we explained in more detail in our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/gdp-prints-at-a-technical-recession_4626874.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">second-quarter 2022 GDP report<\/a>. As we see net exports grow in the third quarter, it tends to support our thesis. (Net exports are a subtraction from total GDP if imports exceed imports; but if exports exceed imports, the net number is an increase in GDP.)<\/p>\n<p>Inflation continues to print at an unacceptable level, which will only be exacerbated by OPEC\u2019s decision to cut oil production by two million barrels a day.<\/p>\n<p>We continue to believe that real overnight rates will need to go to 3.5\u20135.0 percent, and stay there for at least three quarters, to thoroughly extinguish inflation and, more importantly, inflationary expectations. To accomplish that, we reiterate our call for the Fed to increase the limit of the Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities that it allows to \u201cburn off\u201d up to at least $125 billion at its meeting next month to reduce the Fed\u2019s balance sheet more rapidly. Effectively, this would be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/what-is-yield-curve-control-4797189#:~:text=Yield%20curve%20control%20(YCC)%20involves,to%20hit%20that%20rate%20target.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">yield curve control<\/a>\u00a0to reverse the inverted yield curve and return the economy to realistic terms. Otherwise, we see a long, drawn-out period of economic malaise as the Fed pursues a \u201csoft landing.\u201d We believe the Fed should lean into a sharp, short recession to return the economy to pre-pandemic growth; but\u2014as discussed above\u2014the Fed must be \u201cat the ready\u201d to stabilize markets if some \u201cunknown unknown\u201d affects market stability. Again, this is all because the Fed was too late recognizing that the inflation we saw at the end of last year was genuine, not \u201ctransitory.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>We think the Fed will stick with rising rates for the foreseeable future, and that it will raise rates 75 bps going into its November meeting. We think the terminal rate, the overnight rate necessary to kill inflation and return the Fed to its preferred 2 percent growth rate, is at least 5 percent, and the sooner it is achieved\u2014notwithstanding a likely recession\u2014the better. Otherwise, we foresee inflation and slow or negative growth\u2014\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-stagflation\">stagflation<\/a>\u201d\u2014for at least eight quarters.<\/p>\n<p>But despite the Fed\u2019s purported \u201cindependence,\u201d we think it is far more likely the governors\u2019 board would prefer to suffer such lengthy malaise coming into the presidential election cycle than risk the kind of\u00a0 sharp, short recession that cuts into employment and retirement accounts and bankrupts marginal and over-leveraged businesses. That\u2019s what we would prefer. (Would you rather have the Band-Aid pulled off in one, quick, painful pull or endure albeit lesser pain for much longer? Those are the choices at this point. )<\/p>\n<p>We believe third-quarter 2022 GDP will print in the neighborhood of 2 percent, plus or minus 50 bps. We are monitoring \u201cgray swans\u201d (i.e., events known and possible to happen, but assumed unlikely) in the Taiwan Straits, Ukraine, and Europe, and will post information on those in our Twitter feed, @Stuysquare.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>DISCLOSURE:\u00a0The views expressed, including the outcome of future events, are the opinions of The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy and its management only as of October 7, 2022, and will not be revised for events after this document is submitted to The Epoch Times editors for publication. Statements herein do not represent, and should not be considered to be,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/t-investment-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">investment<\/a>\u00a0advice. You should not use this article for that purpose. This article includes forward looking statements as to future events that may or may not develop as the writer opines. Before making any investment decision you should consult your own investment, business, legal, tax, and financial advisers. We associate with principals of TechnoMetrica on survey work in some elements of our business.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Note:\u00a0Our commentaries most often tend to be event-driven. They are mostly written from a public policy, economic, or political\/geopolitical perspective. Some are written from a management consulting perspective for companies that we believe to be under-performing and include strategies that we would recommend were the companies our clients.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"author_wrapper\">\n<div class=\"one_author_block round\">\n<div class=\"top_row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/author-j-g-collins\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/ttl7dayhcW_WEB_JGCollins.jpg\" alt=\"J.G. Collins\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Follow<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>J.G. Collins is managing director of the Stuyvesant Square Consultancy, a strategic advisory, market survey, and consulting firm in New York. His writings on economics, trade, politics, and public policy have appeared in Forbes, the New York Post, Crain\u2019s New York Business, The Hill, The American Conservative, and other publications.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are unstable. And the Fed prefers lengthy malaise to a sharp, short recession.Commentary September jobs\u00a0printed at 263,000 new\u00a0jobs, somewhat above the consensus estimate of 250,000 jobs. That\u2019s 52,000 fewer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1680960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1680958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1680958"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680958\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1680960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1680958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1680958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1680958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}