{"id":1673412,"date":"2022-10-05T07:39:55","date_gmt":"2022-10-05T11:39:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1673412"},"modified":"2022-10-05T07:40:29","modified_gmt":"2022-10-05T11:40:29","slug":"democrats-lose-ground-among-black-voters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/democrats-lose-ground-among-black-voters\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats Lose Ground Among Black Voters"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">12<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdemocrats-lose-ground-among-black-voters%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1673412&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<p>Can Democrats really find themselves in this much disconnect from their key demographic? It sounds a bit too good to be true, but fortunately, we don\u2019t have to check this too hard. CNN\u2019s polling expert Harry Enten has warned that black voters are losing enthusiasm for Democrats for the last several months, and that may give the GOP a\u00a0<em>veeeerrrrrry<\/em> small opening in the midterms.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t have to be much larger than that to matter, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/10\/02\/politics\/democrats-black-voters-midterm-elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Enten points out<\/a> (video via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbusters.org\/blogs\/nb\/kevin-tober\/2022\/10\/03\/huge-drop-cnn-reports-black-voters-running-away-democrats\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Newsbusters<\/a>):<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Looking at the national polling, it seems possible that Democrats might not be able to count on nearly as much support from Black voters as they have in previous elections.<\/p>\n<p>An average of the final five live interview polls of the 2020 election showed Biden with an 84% to 9% lead over then-President Donald Trump among Black voters \u2013 a big 75-point advantage. But this year, an average of the last five live interview polls I could find gives Democrats a 74% to 12% advantage among Black voters \u2013 a 62-point edge \u2013 on the generic congressional ballot, which usually asks respondents some form of the following question: \u201cIf the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican party?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This represents a larger swing toward Republicans by Black voters than the swing we have seen among all voters from the 2020 baseline.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, the final five live interview polls I could get from the 2018 midterms showed Democrats with an 85% to 9% lead on the generic ballot with Black voters. Again, what we\u2019re seeing this year is clearly different.<\/p>\n<p>This shift among Black voters isn\u2019t something new. Back in April, I pointed out that Democrats had a 73% to 11% advantage among this demographic on the generic ballot. To me, this consistency indicates that it isn\u2019t statistical noise we\u2019re witnessing. It\u2019s something more concrete than that.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Is this real, or is it just more of a venting of frustrations via polling and focus-group testing? We\u2019re about to find out, it seems, depending on how the exit polls look after Election Day. Even a small percentage of black voters decamping to the GOP will prove disastrous for Democrats, especially when added to the drain they have experienced among Latino voters over the last few years.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans are far from getting a majority with either demo, Democrats will point out. But the GOP doesn\u2019t\u00a0<em>need<\/em> to win those demos to win elections \u2014 they just need to be\u00a0<em>competitive<\/em> within them. With black voters, even a small increase from the microscopic percentages they usually get could prove decisive. A win on those terms this year might convince Republicans to <em>finally\u00a0<\/em>put real effort into the kind of long-term engagement needed to give black voters a real choice at the ballot box.<\/p>\n<p>This bolsters an argument I have made for months about these midterms and polling assumptions. Pollsters and analysts have treated this as just another first-term midterm cycle, but this environment is unlike anything we\u2019ve seen in 40 years. We can see this in the erosion of Joe Biden\u2019s job approval ratings among black voters, which \u2014 although still high \u2014 is far below what we\u2019d see in any normal political environment for a progressive Democrat president:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The simplest explanation is the same one I had back in April: Biden\u2019s standing. His average approval rating among Black adults in these polls is 64%. In a compilation of Gallup polls I looked at earlier this year, it was 67%. Biden had an approval rating among Black Americans in the high 80s at the beginning of his term.<\/p>\n<p>Biden\u2019s positive standing with Black voters is still significantly higher than his average approval rating with all adults (in the low 40s). But it\u2019s also lower than the lowest rating of the last Democratic president (Barack Obama) with this group.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And why is it dropping so low?\u00a0Inflation is sapping buying power and crime is out of control, both of which regressively impact American households. Joe Biden triggered the former, and did nothing to correct either. The context of this election is <em>much\u00a0<\/em>different especially in the cities than we have seen in decades, which means the usual assumptions about turnout and loyalty are likely in error.<\/p>\n<p>If voters decide based on their daily lived experiences, Democrats are in\u00a0<em>deep <\/em>trouble this cycle. And that may be most true among their previously most loyal demos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can Democrats really find themselves in this much disconnect from their key demographic? It sounds a bit too good to be true, but fortunately, we don\u2019t have to check this<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1673414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1673412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1673412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1673412"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1673412\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1673414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1673412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1673412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1673412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}