{"id":1671227,"date":"2022-10-04T06:55:18","date_gmt":"2022-10-04T10:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1671227"},"modified":"2022-10-04T06:56:18","modified_gmt":"2022-10-04T10:56:18","slug":"another-dem-friendly-poll-shifts-dramatically-towards-the-gop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/another-dem-friendly-poll-shifts-dramatically-towards-the-gop\/","title":{"rendered":"Another Dem-Friendly Poll Shifts Dramatically Towards the GOP"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fanother-dem-friendly-poll-shifts-dramatically-towards-the-gop%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1671227&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>I\u2019m running out of ways to say \u201cI told you so,\u201d but another piece of empirical evidence released on Monday points in that direction.<\/p>\n<p>Back in August, in the midst of all the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/redstate.com\/bonchie\/2022\/08\/06\/election-bro-twitter-rejoices-at-democrat-rebound-but-disappointment-lurks-n608007\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Democrats are surging<\/a>\u201d talk, Monmouth put out a poll showing Democrats up seven points. Their latest iteration? Republicans are now leading by two points. When adjusted for registered voters, the swing is D+3 to R+2.<\/p>\n<p>Who could have possibly foreseen this?!<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NATIONAL POLL: Which party do Americans want in control of Congress? <br \/>36% GOP <br \/>11% not matter, but lean GOP <br \/>34% DEM <br \/>10% not matter, but lean DEM <br \/>8% not matter, no lean<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YXPw36C53D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/YXPw36C53D<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rseBJ1lYCf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/rseBJ1lYCf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MonmouthPoll\/status\/1576950411956977664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 3, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>To put things into a broader context, here\u2019s what the overall polling situation looks like over the last two weeks with a little added commentary by yours truly.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Me in August: &#8220;Summer polling is historically trash. Ignoring the fundamentals is foolhardy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Libs: &#8220;ThAtS JuSt CoPe, DeMs ArE ReSuRgEnT&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Polls: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uLZ4C7jZVC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pic.twitter.com\/uLZ4C7jZVC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bonchieredstate\/status\/1576954795591536641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">October 3, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This is why you don\u2019t ignore the fundamentals to latch onto low-turnout special elections in areas that favor Democrats (namely, higher educated suburbs). History tells us that parties in power get shellacked in their first mid-term of a new presidency. Primary turnout, which has been a dead-on predictor the last four cycles, has also heavily favored the GOP, even after <em>Dobbs <\/em>was released and supposedly became a big issue.<\/p>\n<p>Further, summer polling in general is just trash. You can go back multiple cycles and find that the polling industry consistently overestimates Democrat support during the summer months. For example, in 2014, a wave year for Republicans, the GOP didn\u2019t take the generic ballot lead until October.<\/p>\n<p>Add in the fact that polls have consistently overstated Democrat support up to Election Day as well, if to a slightly smaller degree than summer polling, and you have all the makings of a possible red wave. A month ago, those in the smart set were insisting that was off the table, with the GOP possibly only gaining the House by a few seats. Now, it\u2019s beginning to look more likely than not.<\/p>\n<p>Again, this is why you don\u2019t ignore the fundamentals and electoral history to cling to D+8 polls and special elections in Washington before the leaves even start to change. Anyone who did that was setting themselves up for disappointment, and they can\u2019t say that we didn\u2019t try to warn them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\nTrending on Redstate Video\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m running out of ways to say \u201cI told you so,\u201d but another piece of empirical evidence released on Monday points in that direction. Back in August, in the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1671230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1671227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1671227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1671227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1671227\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1671230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1671227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1671227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1671227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}