{"id":1588097,"date":"2022-08-04T07:46:07","date_gmt":"2022-08-04T11:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1588097"},"modified":"2022-08-04T07:46:20","modified_gmt":"2022-08-04T11:46:20","slug":"why-xi-jinpings-invasion-of-taiwan-is-inevitable-but-not-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/why-xi-jinpings-invasion-of-taiwan-is-inevitable-but-not-imminent\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Xi Jinping\u2019s Invasion Of Taiwan Is Inevitable But Not Imminent"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fwhy-xi-jinpings-invasion-of-taiwan-is-inevitable-but-not-imminent%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1588097&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>This past weekend, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi began her highly anticipated trip to Asia. A Chinese nationalist\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/07\/29\/china-could-shoot-nancy-pelosi-plane-during-taiwan-trip\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tweet<\/a> calling the People\u2019s Liberation Army to shoot down Pelosi\u2019s plane if she visits Taiwan had people speculating if World War III was about to happen. <\/p>\n<p>Such a reaction was overblown, but undoubtedly, Chinese strongman Xi Jinping is determined to take control of Taiwan. He is unlikely to do so at the moment, however, due to domestic challenges.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Xi\u2019s Domestic Challenges<\/h2>\n<p>There is a lot of speculation regarding Xi\u2019s plans to invade Taiwan. From a military perspective, Xi is well prepared. The People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) has the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/03\/05\/china\/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">world\u2019s largest navy<\/a>, measured by fleet size, including a recently launched\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/06\/17\/china\/china-new-aircraft-carrier-fujian-launch-intl-hnk\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">third aircraft carrier<\/a>. Since 2020, the PLA has\u00a0sent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/china-sent-nearly-1000-military-aircraft-near-taiwan-2021-1662038\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">thousands of military aircraft<\/a> into Taiwan\u2019s Air Defense Zone. Additionally, the PLA has conducted several\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/05\/09\/china-conducts-military-drills-near-taiwan-involving-air-forces\/\">military <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/05\/09\/china-conducts-military-drills-near-taiwan-involving-air-forces\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">e<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/05\/09\/china-conducts-military-drills-near-taiwan-involving-air-forces\/\">xercises<\/a>\u00a0near Taiwan, amounting to rehearsals of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Besides war preparation, the Chinese government has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric over the past year. At an international security conference in Singapore this past June, China\u2019s Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2022\/06\/17\/in-starker-terms-than-ever-china-threatens-war-over-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">warned<\/a>, \u201cIf anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost.\u201d China\u2019s ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/07\/21\/qin-gang-blasts-us-for-blurring-one-china-policy-lines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reiterated<\/a>\u00a0a similar stand during his fireside chat at the Aspen Security Forum last month.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Xi has the political will and military power to invade Taiwan, but his most urgent task right now is to ensure he will have a third term as the leader of China at the 20th Party Congress in the fall. Should Xi attain a third term, his reign would be in contradiction with the two-term limit written in China\u2019s Constitution by Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Although Xi faces no apparent challengers, he is not likely to involve China in a significant military conflict before a major political maneuver. Some\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/china\/what-expect-bolder-xi-jinping\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">predict<\/a>\u00a0that after he secures his third term, \u201cXi will be back with a vengeance.\u201d He is more likely to invade Taiwan once he has \u201cuncontested authority and the full power of the Chinese state behind him.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s current economic challenges might have also dissuaded Xi from attacking Taiwan. China\u2019s economic growth fell to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/china-s-economic-growth-slowed-to-0-4-in-second-quarter-271657850808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">0.4 percent<\/a>\u00a0in the second quarter of this year, caused by the government\u2019s harsh\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2022\/04\/08\/china-abuses-its-people-with-new-lockdowns-as-it-struggles-to-contain-covid-surge\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">zero-Covid policy<\/a>\u00a0that has kept millions of people and businesses under strict lockdowns.<\/p>\n<p>For Xi, invading Taiwan amid this growing social-economical instability at home is unwise. He is assertive and determined but not crazy. Suppose Pelosi visits Taiwan. Xi has many options to respond without triggering a war with either Taiwan or the United States. Xi could send more fighter jets into Taiwan\u2019s air defense identification zone, send a Chinese aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait, and launch military exercises. Right on cue, as Pelosi began her trip to Asia, the PLA conducted\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-11068973\/Nancy-Pelosi-expected-visit-Taiwan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">live-fire drills<\/a> near Taiwan\u2019s coast and even posted videos of missile strikes.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Such actions will allow Beijing to live up to its promised intimidation and allow Chinese leadership to save face on the international stage by displaying its displeasure when Xi has other more pressing matters to deal with.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Is the CCP Obsessed with Taiwan?<\/h2>\n<p>That Taiwan is safe for now doesn\u2019t mean it will be safe for a long time.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Chinese Communist Party\u2019s obsession with taking over Taiwan has been driven by political, national security, and economic factors. The separation between the mainland and Taiwan was the legacy of China\u2019s Civil War, fought between the ruling Nationalist Party and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).<\/p>\n<p>After losing the Civil War, the Nationalist Party fled to Taiwan, bringing the government of the Republic of China with it. The CCP regards a separate governing in Taiwan as a threat to the Communist Party\u2019s legitimacy. Taiwan\u2019s thriving democracy today has also exposed the CCP\u2019s lie that democracy is incompatible with the Chinese people and culture.<\/p>\n<p>Taiwan, like a mirror, constantly reflects the flaws of the one-party political system in mainland China. The CCP doesn\u2019t want mainland Chinese people to draw inspiration from Taiwan and demand political reform in China. Therefore, the CCP sees Taiwan as a threat to be eliminated.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>From a geopolitical perspective, the CCP regards Taiwan\u2019s strategic location in the South China Sea \u2014 and the island\u2019s close tie with the United States \u2014 as a security threat. Taking control of Taiwan will allow China to claim the Taiwan Strait is no longer international water and thus prevent the U.S. Navy from sailing through it. This would put an alleged security threat farther away from the Chinese mainland.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Controlling Taiwan will also allow Beijing to absorb Taiwan\u2019s economy, which is the world\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/georank.org\/economy\/taiwan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">21st largest<\/a>, and in particular, boost China\u2019s struggling semiconductor industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a major supplier of tech firms including Apple,\u00a0accounted for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/03\/16\/2-charts-show-how-much-the-world-depends-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">more than half<\/a> of the chip sales globally last year. TSMC is dominant in making the most cutting-edge chips in the world, an area in which Chinese chipmakers still lag behind despite receiving billions of government subsidies through the \u201cMade-in-China 2025\u201d industrial plan.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>To further Chinese chipmakers\u2019 growing pains, the former Trump administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/12\/18\/us-adds-chinese-drone-company-dji-to-economic-blacklist-.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">blacklisted<\/a>\u00a0China\u2019s largest chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, preventing the firm from accessing the technology and machinery it needs from the U.S.\u00a0If China controls TSMC, it will not only eliminate China\u2019s semiconductor industry\u2019s dependency on the U.S. overnight but also enable China to retaliate against the U.S. by preventing U.S. tech firms from accessing chips they need from TSMC.<\/p>\n<p>Besides economic, political, and security reasons, Xi also has personal reasons. He models himself after great emperors of Chinese history who have been immortalized for their territorial conquests. Folding Taiwan into China is part of Xi\u2019s \u201cChina dream.\u201d He sees it as both his destiny and legacy to get it done. But he will only do it when the timing and conditions guarantee him a quick and decisive victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Although Xi is not likely to attack Taiwan right now, the United States doesn\u2019t have the luxury of time. Therefore, it\u2019s deeply concerning that the Biden administration, distracted by its domestic woke agenda and the Russia-Ukraine war, hasn\u2019t come up with an effective strategy to deter Xi from invading Taiwan. Without American support, Taiwan\u2019s 22 million residents may lose their freedom sooner than previously thought.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<div class=\"article-author-description fst-italic\">\n  Helen Raleigh, CFA, is an American entrepreneur, writer, and speaker. She&#8217;s a senior contributor at The Federalist. Her writings appear in other national media, including The Wall Street Journal and Fox News.  Helen is the author of several books, including &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Confucius-Never-Said-Helen-Raleigh\/dp\/1499185278\/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&#038;keywords=Helen+Raleigh+Confucius+Never+Said&#038;qid=1606079469&#038;sr=8-1\">Confucius Never Said<\/a>&#8221; and \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Backlash-How-Chinas-Aggression-Backfired\/dp\/1736008501\/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&#038;qid=1606006113&#038;sr=8-1\">Backlash: How Communist China&#8217;s Aggression Has Backfired<\/a>.&#8221; Follow her on Parler and Twitter: @HRaleighspeaks.<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-comments mt-30 mt-sm-60\">\n<div class=\"article-comments-container d-flex flex-column align-items-center py-30\">\n    <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"110\" height=\"106\" src=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/fdrlst-mark.svg\" class=\"img-fluid mb-20\" alt=\"The Federalist logo eagle mark\" \/>    <\/p>\n<p>Unlock commenting by joining the Federalist Community.<\/p>\n<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/thefederalist.com\/plans\/pricing\/\" class=\"btn btn-on-white\">Subscribe<\/a>  <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This past weekend, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi began her highly anticipated trip to Asia. A Chinese nationalist\u2019s\u00a0tweet calling the People\u2019s Liberation Army to shoot down Pelosi\u2019s plane if she<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":536,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1588097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1588097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/536"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1588097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1588097\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1588097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1588097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1588097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}