{"id":1578798,"date":"2022-07-29T12:46:44","date_gmt":"2022-07-29T16:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1578798"},"modified":"2022-07-29T13:16:35","modified_gmt":"2022-07-29T17:16:35","slug":"is-a-china-crisis-now-inevitable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-a-china-crisis-now-inevitable\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a China Crisis Now Inevitable?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">12<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fis-a-china-crisis-now-inevitable%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1578798&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<p>U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/07\/gordon-chang-joe-biden-should-cancel-his-call-with-chinas-xi-jinping\/\">Xi Jinping<\/a> held their fifth call today since Biden\u2019s inauguration. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2022\/07\/28\/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china\/\">White House readout<\/a> of the conversation, on the thorny issue of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s reported trip to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/07\/could-nancy-pelosi-start-a-war-with-china-if-she-visits-taiwan\/\">Taiwan<\/a>, Biden told Xi simply \u201cthat the United States policy has not changed.\u201d Xi, in contrast, was <a href=\"http:\/\/us.china-embassy.gov.cn\/eng\/zgyw\/202207\/t20220729_10729593.htm\">direct and blunt<\/a>: \u201cThose who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this,\u201d with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202207\/1271696.shtml\">Beijing\u2019s readout<\/a> adding China should be \u201cprepared for the worst scenario, especially military preparation,\u201d as the best way to deter the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>What happens in August will have much of the world\u2019s attention: will Rep. Nancy Pelosi defer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/pentagon-congress\/2022\/07\/20\/military-thinks-pelosi-taiwan-trip-not-a-good-idea-biden-says\/\">Pentagon\u2019s admonition<\/a> that this is \u201cnot a good idea\u201d and cancel the trip\u2014or ignore Xi\u2019s threats and visit Taiwan, potentially sparking a military clash in the Taiwan Strait? The stakes couldn\u2019t be higher.<\/p>\n<p>As the United States and China careen towards a potential showdown over Pelosi\u2019s proposed visit, much of establishment Washington wants to resolve the issue with its knee-jerk favorite tool: flexing military muscles. Over-reliance on coercion as the lead tool in international relations has served U.S. interests poorly over the past two decades.<\/p>\n<p>Especially at a time of economic turmoil in much of the Western world \u2013 along with the persistent threat of the war between Ukraine and Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2022\/03\/01\/us-russia-war-ukraine\/\">spilling over<\/a> the borders into NATO territory \u2013 the United States cannot afford to see its already-tense relationship with China devolve into a potential military clash. Yet hawks in both Washington and Beijing seem intent on pushing the envelope of such risk. Speaker Pelosi\u2019s potential visit to Taipei is the latest flashpoint, but far from the only one by U.S. and allied leaders in recent months.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past number of months, a raft of former high-ranking U.S. officials has visited Taiwan. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, along with former Deputy National Security Advisor and Undersecretary of Defense Meghan O\u2019Sullivan and Michelle Flournoy, went at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/exclusive-biden-sends-former-top-defense-officials-taiwan-show-support-2022-02-28\/\">Biden\u2019s behest<\/a> in February. In March, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us-former-top-diplomat-pompeo-arrives-taiwan-calls-it-great-nation-2022-03-02\/\">made the trip<\/a>, and earlier this month, former Secretary of Defense <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3185688\/taiwan-welcomes-loyal-friend-ex-us-defence-chief-mark-esper\">Mike Esper<\/a> did the same. On Thursday, a rare <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/wireStory\/japan-discusses-regional-defense-rare-visit-taiwan-87532681\">high-level visit<\/a> from Japanese lawmakers and two former ministers of defense met with the Taiwanese president discussing regional security.<\/p>\n<p>China, which has long claimed it views such high-level visits as contributing to \u201cseparatist\u201d elements on Taiwan in seeking independence, has reacted with unusually strong vitriol against reports that Pelosi may visit Taipei. Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202207\/1271152.shtml?id=11\">said<\/a> if Pelosi goes through with the visit, \u201cChina will take strong countermeasures. We mean what we say.\u201d Col. Tan Kefei, spokesperson for China\u2019s Ministry of National Defense, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-us-canada-62310576\">ominously warned<\/a> that \u201cthe Chinese military will never sit idle (if Pelosi visits Taiwan) and will take strong measures to thwart any external interference.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps strongest of all, however, Hu Xijin, long-time editor of the semi-official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, the Global Times, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HuXijin_GT\/status\/1549788093536141312?s=20&#038;t=nsb9v1Cq9I_oXzAgL3Pz2g\">tweeted<\/a> \u201cthe mainland\u2019s response to Pelosi\u2019s visit will be unprecedented and will involve shocking military response.\u201d Without question, the United States should not form its foreign policy based on whether another country does or doesn\u2019t like our actions.<\/p>\n<p>But Washington very much <em>must<\/em> base its actions on policies that have the best chance to produce positive outcomes for our country, strengthening U.S. national security and economic opportunity. Needlessly poking China on an emotional issue that could result in military action against our nation, however, is unwise and must be avoided. Unfortunately, the way this situation has unfolded has put both Pelosi and the United States in a tough situation \u2013 one that must be navigated with skill and wisdom.<\/p>\n<p>Because Beijing\u2019s demarches have been so firm and public, Pelosi cannot easily back out of the trip. Already she has significant support from two notable Republicans, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taipeitimes.com\/News\/front\/archives\/2022\/07\/26\/2003782433\">Pompeo<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/media\/biden-stopping-pelosis-taiwan-visit-create-major-foreign-policy-crisis-sen-cotton-says\">Sen. Tom Cotton<\/a>, both of whom have strongly and publicly advised her to make the trip. Pelosi will almost certainly face public censure from the right if she is seen as \u201cbacking down\u201d to Chinese bullying. Yet, if she does proceed with the visit, the U.S. and Taiwan face the risk that China might make good on its threats and take some sort of military action. Wars have been started over much less.<\/p>\n<p>Recent satellite imagery has shown increasing Chinese air force activity at the Longtian Airbase \u2013 a seven minute flight to Taiwan \u2013 featuring a tarmac <a href=\"https:\/\/www.republicworld.com\/world-news\/rest-of-the-world-news\/us-warship-sails-to-taiwan-strait-as-chinas-pla-ups-air-power-ahead-of-pelosis-visit-articleshow.html\">that was<\/a> \u201cpacked with Flanker-series fighter jets,\u00a0Russian-made Su-27s and the Chinese variants of J-11 or J-16 series.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the United States has reportedly begun military movement of its own, dispatching an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/us-aircraft-carrier-strike-group-move-south-china-sea-pelosi-plans-possible-taiwan-visit\">aircraft carrier group<\/a> to the South China Sea. Defense officials told the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3186748\/us-military-making-plans-indo-pacific-case-nancy-pelosi?module=inline&#038;pgtype=article\">Associated Press<\/a> that if Pelosi makes the trip to Taiwan, the Pentagon would also dispatch \u201cfighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan.\u201d Owing to such volatile conditions in and around the Taiwan Straits, the wisest thing the Administration and Pelosi could do is to scotch the trip.<\/p>\n<p>Face-saving ways can be found \u2013 such as \u201cpostponing the trip until a later time\u201d \u2013 but this specific trip should be canceled for one overriding reason: the risk to American security represented by Pelosi\u2019s visit is in no way commensurate with any potential benefit to the U.S. In fact, there is virtually <em>no<\/em> upside for America with this visit. As pointed out above, there has been no shortage of official and semi-official contacts between Washington and Taipei recently that no additional benefit could accrue to the U.S. by adding the Speaker of the House to the list.<\/p>\n<p>But her visit could result in a belligerent China taking rash action that could change the security status quo in the Taiwan Straits, putting both American and Taiwanese interests in danger. The risk simply isn\u2019t worth it.<\/p>\n<p><em>Now a 1945 Contributing Editor,\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.defensepriorities.org\/media\/profile\/daniel-davis\">Daniel L. Davis<\/a><em>\u00a0is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of \u201c<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/B08KHGDQRK\"><em>The Eleventh Hour<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0in 2020 America.\u201d Follow him @DanielLDavis<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their fifth call today since Biden\u2019s inauguration. According to the White House readout of the conversation, on the thorny issue<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1579067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1578798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1578798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1578798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1578798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1579067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1578798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1578798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1578798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}