{"id":1519726,"date":"2022-06-17T05:05:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-17T09:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1519726"},"modified":"2022-06-17T05:05:05","modified_gmt":"2022-06-17T09:05:05","slug":"republicans-surf-the-red-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/republicans-surf-the-red-wave\/","title":{"rendered":"Republicans Surf the Red Wave"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">10<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Frepublicans-surf-the-red-wave%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1519726&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<p>In January, FiveThirtyEight published a story with the headline, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/some-early-clues-about-how-the-midterms-will-go\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Some Early Clues About How the Midterms Will Go<\/a>.&#8221; The authors, Alex Samuels and Nathaniel Rakich, named four things to watch during the election year: President Biden\u2019s job approval, the congressional generic ballot, special election results, and individual election polls. Six months later, all signs point to a great night for Republicans in November. With one asterisk.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look at some numbers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Job Approval.<\/strong> This week Biden dropped below 40 percent approval in both the <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/biden-approval-rating\/?ex_cid=rrpromo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RealClearPolitics<\/a> averages of polls. His net approval is -14 points in both averages.<\/p>\n<p>Take a moment to consider how terrible that is. According to the Gallup poll, at this point in earlier midterm cycles, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/203198\/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donald Trump was at -5 net approval<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/116479\/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barack Obama was at +2<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/116584\/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bill Clinton was at +5<\/a>. All three presidents went on to lose the House of Representatives. Clinton lost the Senate as well.<\/p>\n<p>Biden is much worse off than his immediate predecessors. &#8220;No president with an underwater net approval rating since World War II has ever lost fewer seats than Obama\u2019s 13 in 2014,&#8221; wrote Samuels and Rakich. At this writing, Republicans only need to net <a href=\"https:\/\/clerk.house.gov\/\">nine seats<\/a> to win the House.<\/p>\n<p>Negative job approval is a sure sign of impending defeat. And it will take a miracle for Biden\u2019s standing to improve before Election Day.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Congressional Generic Ballot.<\/strong> Since the beginning of the year, Republicans have led Democrats in both the <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/generic-ballot\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RealClearPolitics<\/a> averages of the congressional generic ballot. That lead is small\u2014about 3 points\u2014but stable.<\/p>\n<p>And it may underestimate the Republican advantage. Most pollsters are still conducting surveys of registered voters, who tend to lean <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/02\/19\/politics\/enthusiasm-republican-midterms-high\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more Democratic<\/a> than the electorate that shows up to vote in November. Plus, Samuels and Rakich wrote, &#8220;Generic-ballot polling has historically tended to get worse for the president\u2019s party as the cycle wears on.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Absent a deus ex machina in which a winged chariot is sent from the heavens to lower gas prices, end the war in Ukraine, lock up violent criminals, and secure the southern border, House Democrats are doomed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Special Elections. <\/strong>On June 14, Republican Mayra Flores <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/2022\/06\/14\/texas-special-election-tx-34-mayra-flores-dan-sanchez\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trounced<\/a> Democrat Dan Sanchez in a majority Hispanic congressional district on the Mexican border. Her victory wasn\u2019t just evidence that the Hispanic vote is migrating to the GOP. It also supports the case for a Republican wave.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If a party consistently outperforms its typical margins in these irregularly scheduled elections\u2014like Democrats did in 2017 and early 2018\u2014it is usually a sign that the political environment is leaning in its direction,&#8221; Rakich <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/what-can-special-elections-so-far-tell-us-about-the-2022-midterms\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrote in April<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent margin in Texas\u2019s 34th Congressional District was <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/fivethirtyeight\/data\/blob\/master\/partisan-lean\/fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_DISTRICTS.csv\">5 points for the Democrats<\/a>. Flores beat Sanchez by 8 points. That\u2019s a 13-point swing toward the Republican Party. And the Texas special election followed similar elections in <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/California%27s_22nd_Congressional_District_special_election,_2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">California<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/United_States_House_of_Representatives_special_election_in_Alaska,_2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska<\/a> where Republicans also <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/fivethirtyeight\/data\/blob\/master\/partisan-lean\/2020\/fivethirtyeight_partisan_lean_DISTRICTS.csv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">over-performed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>When he wrote about special elections in April, Rakich <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/what-can-special-elections-so-far-tell-us-about-the-2022-midterms\/\">warned<\/a> that there wasn\u2019t enough data to identify a trend. Well, to quote another election-watcher, I\u2019ve seen enough. The results of special elections are in line with a Republican triumph on November 8.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Individual Races.<\/strong> The toplines\u2014stagflation, historic trends, Biden\u2019s job approval, the generic ballot, enthusiasm\u2014favor the GOP. The Democratic House is lost.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the asterisk. Republicans need only a single pickup to win control of the Senate. But Republican Senate candidates are struggling.<\/p>\n<p>The first general-election poll in Pennsylvania has Democrat John Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2022\/senate\/pa\/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9 points<\/a>. And Fetterman hasn\u2019t campaigned since he was hospitalized for a stroke last month. The most recent poll in North Carolina has Democrat Cheri Beasley leading Republican Ted Budd by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2022\/senate\/nc\/north_carolina_senate_budd_vs_beasley-7588.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4 points<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican candidates who are ahead aren\u2019t ahead by much. The most recent poll in Ohio has Republican J.D. Vance leading Democrat Tim Ryan by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2022\/senate\/oh\/ohio_senate_vance_vs_ryan-7624.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">3 points<\/a>. The latest poll in Georgia has Republican Herschel Walker <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2022\/senate\/ga\/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tied<\/a> with Democrat senator Raphael Warnock.<\/p>\n<p>Now it\u2019s entirely possible that Republican Senate candidates will gain as they become better known, define their opponents, and benefit from the backlash against President Biden. It\u2019s entirely possible the polls are off and that, as happened in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2014\/senate\/ar\/arkansas_senate_cotton_vs_pryor-4049.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tom Cotton\u2019s race in 2014<\/a>, single-digit polling leads will turn into big wins on Election Day.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the Republican Senate team in 2022 isn\u2019t as strong as it was eight years ago. The roster this year looks more like it did in 2010 and 2012. And those seasons were disappointing.<\/p>\n<p>No one wants to relive the frustration and fury of 2011 through 2015, when Republicans controlled only the House of Representatives. GOP Senate candidates need to recognize, quickly, that elections are won not in Mar-a-Lago but in the suburbs, as they surf the red wave headed toward Washington.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In January, FiveThirtyEight published a story with the headline, &#8220;Some Early Clues About How the Midterms Will Go.&#8221; The authors, Alex Samuels and Nathaniel Rakich, named four things to watch<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":222,"featured_media":1892088,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1519726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1519726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/222"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1519726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1519726\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1892088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1519726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1519726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1519726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}