{"id":1479511,"date":"2022-05-18T12:29:37","date_gmt":"2022-05-18T16:29:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1479511"},"modified":"2022-05-18T12:29:43","modified_gmt":"2022-05-18T16:29:43","slug":"dcccs-internal-polling-has-republicans-leading-them-47-39-on-the-generic-ballot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/dcccs-internal-polling-has-republicans-leading-them-47-39-on-the-generic-ballot\/","title":{"rendered":"DCCC\u2019s Internal Polling Has Republicans Leading Them 47-39 on the Generic Ballot"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fdcccs-internal-polling-has-republicans-leading-them-47-39-on-the-generic-ballot%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1479511&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Red wave or Red Wedding? The answer to that question in the midterms is known, <a href=\"https:\/\/punchbowl.news\/archive\/5-18-22-punchbowl-news-am\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Punchbowl reports this morning<\/a>, and the DCCC has it. They\u2019re not talking about it, and not because they want to protect against any spoilers for the season finale:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>House Democrats may be in worse political peril than they\u2019ve let on publicly.<\/p>\n<p>During a Thursday luncheon last week with DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, Frontline Democrats \u2013 the party\u2019s most endangered lawmakers \u2013 were told that, in battleground districts, the generic Republican is beating the generic Democrat, 47-39, according to lawmakers, multiple party officials and the DCCC.<\/p>\n<p>This is a stunning margin and highlights the incredibly perilous position Democrats find themselves in.<\/p>\n<p>Given that Democrats generally have a three- or four-point built in advantage on the generic ballot, this is a particularly concerning development for Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s majority. An eight-point deficit on the generic ballot could be a sign of a wave for House Republicans.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The advice that strategists offered in this environment? Call your opponents \u201cMAGA Republicans.\u201d\u00a0<em>Yeah, that oughta do it<\/em>. I guess the \u201cultra-MAGA\u201d label was still under development at that time.<\/p>\n<p>The DCCC poll results may still underestimate the problem. First, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_US_051222\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">most recent Monmouth poll<\/a> puts the GOP up seven points\u00a0<em>overall<\/em>, not just in battleground districts. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RCP\u2019s generic-ballot aggregate average<\/a> has Dems down 3.5 points, and that has looked stable for months now:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The only pollster giving Democrats a lead outside the margins of error in this list is YouGov, which has been a consistent D+4 \u2013 D+6 outlier. Without them in the mix, this chart would look even worse.<\/p>\n<p>The second question is whether the DCCC has accurately defined the universe of \u201cfrontline House Democrats.\u201d Given these numbers, the number of at-risk seats has to have expanded, especially as Joe Biden\u2019s numbers remain mired near his floor and inflation rages all around. Perhaps the DCCC has accounted for this already, but I\u2019d bet that they\u2019re at least in some form of denial as to just how bad their situation actually is.<\/p>\n<p>The primaries taking place this spring should serve as a siren on that point. Last month, Ohio had competitive primaries for both parties in their statewide gubernatorial and US Senate elections, and Republican turnout was double that of Democrats. Last night\u2019s primaries in neighboring Pennsylvania had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/election\/2022\/results\/pennsylvania\/primaries\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the same\u00a0 competitive primaries<\/a> for both parties in the US Senate race (Josh Shapiro ran unopposed in the Democratic gubernatorial primary). Republicans cast 140,000 more ballots so far in their Senate primary (1,314,747, 94% of precincts counted)\u00a0 than Democrats did (1,173,189). That turnout may reflect a somewhat more competitive primary, but Conor Lamb was a legit contender against John Fetterman in the Democratic contest. That kind of turnout advantage for the GOP in a state where Democrats usually cruise in statewide elections should get everyone\u2019s attention.<\/p>\n<p>The DCCC has other issues distracting it from midterm strategies based on reality, however. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/05\/17\/maloney-dccc-jones-new-york-00033277\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Its chair may get the boot<\/a>, thanks in large part to the redrawn CD map imposed by a New York court:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>House Democrats could find themselves picking sides in a deeply uncomfortable primary this summer: their campaign chair versus a Black freshman. And a growing swath of the caucus is blaming its midterm chief, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, for the predicament.<\/p>\n<p>Maloney\u2019s decision to abandon a newly redrawn version of his current swing district \u2014 and instead run for a seat that includes most of Rep. Mondaire Jones\u2019 turf \u2014 is raising private concerns from across the party that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chief has put himself in an inappropriate scenario: leading the party\u2019s midterm strategy while potentially battling a fellow member.<\/p>\n<p>While the map is not final and Jones hasn\u2019t yet said whether he\u2019ll take on Maloney, his other option if New York\u2019s current maps hold is challenging Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), another Black progressive freshman. Many of his colleagues are now bracing for the prospect of a freshman being forced to go up against the member who controls the party\u2019s campaign coffers \u2014 a scenario they describe as completely avoidable.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike typical midterm gripes about the party chair, the Democratic worries over Maloney\u2019s move run the ideological gamut, according to conversations with nearly two dozen lawmakers and senior aides. But many lawmakers say they\u2019re unable to raise that issue publicly, given that Maloney and his team decide how much the DCCC will spend in individual battleground races. Maloney lives in the newly drawn district, though members of Congress are not required to live where they run.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Punchbowl also reports that Maloney\u2019s decision may force his removal, and that it has produced a lot of anger within the House Democrat caucus. His defenders want Jones to run against another freshman Democrat incumbent instead, which will ignite fury in The Squad:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Maloney\u2019s decision caught everyone by surprise, including Jones, who was furious. Jones complained to anyone who would listen about the move. It\u2019s especially sensitive because the DCCC chair \u2013 who sits at the leadership table \u2013 is bigfooting a first-term minority lawmaker.<\/p>\n<p>Defenders of Maloney said Jones would be a better fit for the reworked NY-16, currently represented by Bowman. But if Jones does that, it could cause a huge split among progressives. Bowman \u2013 also in his first House term \u2013 is a member of the Squad. Jones is often described as \u201cSquad adjacent.\u201d Some Democrats also sent us unsolicited emails backing Maloney.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Maybe Maloney can run against Jones in a primary by calling him \u201cultra-Squad.\u201d And we can keep passing the popcorn.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Update<\/strong>: Dave Wasserman gets to the heart of Maloney\u2019s decision:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">That the sitting DCCC chair is willing to risk a primary against his own Dem neighbor to run in a Biden +10 seat \u2013 rather than run in a Biden +5 seat where most of his current constituents live \u2013 says everything you need to know about the political environment right now. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sKtiw93YBp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.co\/sKtiw93YBp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Redistrict\/status\/1526927597514502144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">May 18, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Biden +5 won\u2019t be safe in November, not even in New York. One has to wonder how safe Biden +10 districts will be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Red wave or Red Wedding? The answer to that question in the midterms is known, Punchbowl reports this morning, and the DCCC has it. They\u2019re not talking about it, and<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":498,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1479511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/498"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1479511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1479511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1479511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1479511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}