{"id":1447189,"date":"2022-04-20T07:59:54","date_gmt":"2022-04-20T11:59:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1447189"},"modified":"2022-04-20T07:59:57","modified_gmt":"2022-04-20T11:59:57","slug":"is-it-even-possible-to-negotiate-with-putin-at-this-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/is-it-even-possible-to-negotiate-with-putin-at-this-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Is It Even Possible to Negotiate With Putin at This Point?"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">22<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fis-it-even-possible-to-negotiate-with-putin-at-this-point%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1447189&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>Is Negotiating with Putin even possible at this point?<\/p>\n<p><strong>OPINION<\/strong> \u2014 The war in Ukraine has now moved into its second, more protracted, and likely more violent phase. Unsurprisingly, given the extent of Russian atrocities, ongoing negotiations have borne little fruit. Many question whether existing Western strategies can impact Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s decision-making calculus.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A radically different approach is needed to successfully encourage a negotiated solution and to avoid further economic contagion which a protracted war could inject into global markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Negotiation psychology is critical in understanding Putin\u2019s desires.\u00a0 At present, Putin\u2019s strategy is driven by a combination of maximalist goals and self-righteous ideology. It also appears that he is employing negotiations as a feint to regain his equilibrium. By publicly claiming to refocus his campaign on the East, withdrawing troops from Kyiv, and repositioning them to take the land corridor connecting it to Crimea, Putin may be bluffing as to his actual real objectives and future tactics.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Negotiation strategy requires a clear sense of strategic goals and can be perceived as an art form encompassing ideas from psychology, game theory, Poker, hostage negotiations, market analysis, and in Putin\u2019s case, <em>judo<\/em>; and lastly, the concept of\u00a0<em>shi<\/em>\u00a0(in Chinese philosophy, understanding the relative nature of things and having situational awareness). If the West had a better sense of what concessions are morally and strategically unacceptable, such as compromises of Ukrainian territory or sovereignty, and what stratagems we were willing to employ, like calculated conventional escalations, information warfare, or a cyber offensive, we would be more likely to incentivize a negotiated resolution.<\/p>\n<p>Putin is recognized as a risk taker and disruptor.\u00a0 To negotiate with Putin, boldness, calculated aggression, paradox, and surprise are required.\u00a0 Given Putin\u2019s role as global \u2018hostage taker\u2019 \u2013clear, disciplined use of language and messaging is critical.\u00a0 Name-calling, such as when President Biden called Putin a \u201cwar criminal\u201d and re-hashing of old theories, like the canard that \u201cRussia must come to grips with a new world order,\u201d are counterproductive and may make further negotiations impossible.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelensky has been cautious in this regard, even while condemning Russian war crimes and genocide against his country.\u00a0 Zelensky\u2019s adopting of a hardline stance toward the West as he demands more weapons and a no-fly zone, while avoiding offensive remarks toward Putin, and signaling his willingness to forgo potential future NATO membership and accept neutrality, highlights the importance of \u2018tactical empathy,\u2019 as pioneered by the FBI in hostage negotiations.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>The Cipher Brief hosts expert-level briefings on national security issues for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/subscriber-plus\">Subscriber+Members<\/a> that help provide context around today\u2019s national security issues and what they mean for business.\u00a0 Upgrade your status to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/subscriber-plus\">Subscriber+<\/a> today.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p>In short, despite seeing Putin as a genocidal war criminal, Zelensky\u2019s empathy does not imply agreement or assent, but rather an understanding of the opponent\u2019s position, even where the opponent has committed horrible, unpardonable acts.<\/p>\n<p>Brinksmanship always plays a role in high-stakes negotiations.\u00a0 Putin has expertly used such tactics, both with his nuclear threats, and in relying upon his long-time Press Spokesman Dmitry Peskov (a former KGB\/SVR officer) to convey ambiguity involving said threats.\u00a0 But the West has many more cyber, financial, and conventional military cards it could play. Maybe the time has come to deploy them.<\/p>\n<p>Many have skin in the game. \u00a0Zelensky is risking his life.\u00a0Western leaders are fighting to save democracy and avert nuclear holocaust. Putin is at risk of losing his power, or worse, if he \u2018fails.\u2019 As a result, there is a need by the West and other parties to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/column_article\/with-the-world-turning-against-him-putins-going-to-need-a-way-out\">offer off-ramps<\/a>.\u00a0 There is no complete victory possible here by any side.\u00a0 The U.S. \u2018won\u2019 the Cold War, but it was clearly a Pyrrhic victory. It left Russia with the bitterness and shame that led to the current war.<\/p>\n<p>To avoid future struggle (as in the case of <em>judo<\/em>) the West must allow Putin to \u2018tap out,\u2019 rather than keeping him in a chokehold till he loses consciousness.<\/p>\n<p>What now?\u00a0 A best-case scenario involves the role of an outside mediator, trusted by Putin, Zelensky, Biden, Xi, and America\u2019s NATO allies.\u00a0 A similar approach was utilized successfully in ending the Kosovo conflict in 1999, with former Finnish President Martti Ahtissari playing a key role.\u00a0 While the run-up to the war has seen France\u2019s President Emmanuel Macron, Germany\u2019s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Israel\u2019s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett play unsuccessful roles, the key to a genuine resolution is more likely to emerge from a senior-level third-party negotiator from China.<\/p>\n<p>As representatives of China\u2019s President Xi Jinping, their success, would be his success. But at present, China is benefiting from the conflict protracting. \u00a0A successful Western negotiation strategy must help China to see that if they can mediate a conflict between the two superpower blocs of a prior world order, then China is implicitly a guarantor of a new form of \u2018multipolar\u2019 world order \u2014 a term used not only in official Chinese parlance, but recently even referenced in the US Intelligence Community\u2019s 2022 annual threat report. \u00a0American leaders have adopted this nuanced term to let the Chinese know that the U.S. does not oppose their vision for the world.<\/p>\n<p>The war\u2019s second phase will likely involve not only further military strategy \u2013 highlighted by the appointment of Russia\u2019s General Aleksandr Dvornikov, known as \u201cThe Butcher of Aleppo,\u201d to a command role \u2013 but also political change like Marie Le Pen\u2019s potential election victory in France, and higher-order economic impacts, such as prolonged sanctions, currency volatility, elevated gas prices, inflation, supply chain disruptions, and possible Russian economic default.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If the West sticks to a purely reactive approach to negotiations, lacking an overarching strategy, it risks spreading profound economic contagion to global markets.\u00a0 An unmediated, unresolved Ukraine conflict creates a negative feedback loop of heightened coordination challenges among the main players and decentralized drivers of volatility. Such a death spiral makes exiting the disorder progressively harder.\u00a0 Faced with this profound threat, Western leaders may need to consider the least-worst option \u2013 a mediated solution which denies Putin his war aims, while incentivizing him and Xi to nonetheless prefer resolution to continued conflict. Only through astute leadership analysis and negotiation psychology can our leaders steer the ship of state to calmer waters.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/\">The Cipher Brief<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is Negotiating with Putin even possible at this point? OPINION \u2014 The war in Ukraine has now moved into its second, more protracted, and likely more violent phase. Unsurprisingly, given<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":489,"featured_media":1894211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1447189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/489"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1447189"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447189\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1894211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1447189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1447189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1447189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}