{"id":1416151,"date":"2022-04-02T15:29:56","date_gmt":"2022-04-02T19:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1416151"},"modified":"2022-04-02T15:30:00","modified_gmt":"2022-04-02T19:30:00","slug":"summers-its-at-least-50-50-that-there-will-be-a-recession-within-the-next-two-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/summers-its-at-least-50-50-that-there-will-be-a-recession-within-the-next-two-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Summers: It&#039;s at Least 50-50 that There Will be a Recession &#039;Within the Next Two Years&#039;"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">32<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fsummers-its-at-least-50-50-that-there-will-be-a-recession-within-the-next-two-years%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1416151&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<p>During a portion of an interview aired on Friday\u2019s edition of Bloomberg\u2019s \u201cWall Street Week,\u201d economist, Harvard Professor, Director of the National Economic Council under President Barack Obama, and Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton Larry Summers stated that he doesn\u2019t see how anyone \u201ccan look at either the historical experience or what markets are predicting and not think that it\u2019s 50-50, better than 50-50, that a recession will start some time within the next two years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Summers said that while he pays attention to the yield curve, \u201cI pay a little less attention to it than people in the markets do. And I think it\u2019s important to understand that it\u2019s not a causal relationship, if it exists, it\u2019s a canary in the coal mine kind of relationship. So, it\u2019s not that changing the ten-year interest rate, if you could do it in some way, will change the prospect of recession. Rather, it\u2019s that when people are forecasting that the Fed is going to be cutting rates, they\u2019re also forecasting that that\u2019s going to happen because there\u2019s a recession. So, it\u2019s a correlation thing, not a causation thing.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"D-ROS-B1\" class=\"a8d\"><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"M-ROS-B1\" class=\"a8d\"><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"gmxrevmore\" class=\"H\"><\/figure>\n<p>He continued, \u201cI think that what\u2019s happening with the yield curve adds to a sense of economic anxiety that, in situations like this, historically, we have not achieved soft landings, and we have seen recessions. Is it a certainty that we\u2019ll see a recession in the next two to three years? No. Is it more likely than not that we will see a recession in the next two years? I don\u2019t see how anybody can look at either the historical experience or what markets are predicting and not think that it\u2019s 50-50, better than 50-50, that a recession will start some time within the next two years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>Follow Ian\u00a0Hanchett on Twitter\u00a0<a class=\"x5l\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/IanHanchett\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener external\">@IanHanchett<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>During a portion of an interview aired on Friday\u2019s edition of Bloomberg\u2019s \u201cWall Street Week,\u201d economist, Harvard Professor, Director of the National Economic Council under President Barack Obama, and Treasury<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1416151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1416151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/33"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1416151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1416151\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1416151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1416151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1416151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}