{"id":1373784,"date":"2022-03-13T08:12:41","date_gmt":"2022-03-13T12:12:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1373784"},"modified":"2022-03-13T08:17:35","modified_gmt":"2022-03-13T12:17:35","slug":"gordon-g-chang-as-the-world-fractures-chinas-threats-about-taiwan-could-not-be-any-clearer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/gordon-g-chang-as-the-world-fractures-chinas-threats-about-taiwan-could-not-be-any-clearer\/","title":{"rendered":"Gordon G. Chang: As The World Fractures, China\u2019s Threats About Taiwan Could Not Be Any Clearer"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">32<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fgordon-g-chang-as-the-world-fractures-chinas-threats-about-taiwan-could-not-be-any-clearer%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1373784&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<p>On Saturday, Beijing signaled it was going to take Taiwan soon, one way or another. As the international order continues to crumble \u2014 and as the pace of de-globalization quickens \u2014 the risk of invasion rises dramatically.<\/p>\n<p>The Chinese central government, in its Work Report released Saturday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/politics\/article\/3169398\/looking-inward-chinese-premier-li-keqiang-focuses-national\">declared<\/a> it was committed to \u201cresolving the Taiwan question in the new era.\u201d This is the first time since Xi Jinping <a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world-nation\/story\/2020-10-22\/china-xi-jinping-mao-zedong-communist-party\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">came to power<\/a> in late 2012 that this annual document included a time frame for annexing the island republic.<\/p>\n<p>So what is meant by \u201cnew era\u201d?<\/p>\n<p>Xi started using the phrase in November, and he has partially defined it in prior statements. \u201cWe should not allow this problem to be passed down from one generation to the next,\u201d he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gwytb.gov.cn\/wyly\/201904\/t20190412_12155687.htm\">said in 2019<\/a>. In short, Xi, almost 69, believes he will be the one to incorporate Taiwan into the People\u2019s Republic of China.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, Taiwan is self-governing, formally calling itself the Republic of China. Xi\u2019s communist state has in fact never ruled the island. Now that President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine, many think Xi will move to forcibly annex Taiwan.<\/p>\n<p>Recent events, it appears, have emboldened China\u2019s regime. Despite the West\u2019s overwhelming power advantage over Russia \u2014 the combined economy of the U.S., EU, and the U.K. is more than 25 times the size of Russia\u2019s \u2014 Moscow invaded anyway, showing the complete breakdown of deterrence and the feebleness of Western leadership. Xi Jinping must have noticed this failure. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2022\/03\/01\/daniel-west-worldview-foreign-policy-illusion-russia-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: DANIEL: The West\u2019s Current Worldview Is An Illusion, And Russia Just Smashed It)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the inability of America and Europe to completely ban dealings with Russia must also encourage Xi. China, he knows, has escaped penalty for assorted bad conduct during his rule \u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dea.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2020-03\/DEA_GOV_DIR-008-20%20Fentanyl%20Flow%20in%20the%20United%20States_0.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pushing<\/a> illicit fentanyl and <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2021\/03\/18\/china-covid-19-killed-health-care-workers-worldwide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">downplaying<\/a> COVID-19, to name just the most malicious acts \u2014 and must believe he can after a Taiwan invasion intimidate others into not imposing costs. Many countries, Xi knows, are too dependent on China to take him on.<\/p>\n<p>Xi also may think he has to act fast. China, after all, will be the biggest victim perhaps of the Ukraine invasion\u2019s most important long-term effect: the end of the current era of globalization.<\/p>\n<p>Globalization has been kind to the Communist Chinese regime. China used this period of prolonged peace to make itself an integral part of supply chains spanning the world, putting the country in the center of the global economy. Xi was not content with economic success, however. He has used this favored position to coerce other countries into doing what he wants.<\/p>\n<p>De-globalization \u2014 the cutting of trade links \u2014 will undermine Xi Jinping\u2019s ability to intimidate. As countries become less dependent on China, Beijing will inevitably lose clout.<\/p>\n<p>That gives China an incentive to act against Taiwan quickly, before Beijing loses influence.<\/p>\n<p>Before the Ukraine invasion, the world was already in the early stages of de-globalization. Analysts expect 2022 will see a decline in international commerce from last year\u2019s record of $28.5 trillion. The 2021 result was boosted by one-time government stimulus measures, and resulting commodity price increases further inflated trade statistics. These factors, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development <a href=\"https:\/\/unctad.org\/news\/global-trade-hits-record-high-285-trillion-2021-likely-be-subdued-2022\">stated<\/a> in February, will \u201cabate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The U.N. pointed to supply-chain disruptions, which are forcing countries to regionalize, giving preference to trade with neighbors. \u201cEfforts to shorten supply chains and to diversify suppliers,\u201d the U.N. warned, \u201ccould affect global trade patterns during 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In a turbulent world, countries will locate production inside their borders or at least to locations closer to home. China can thank Russia. The Russian invasion ended decades of general calm and constant geopolitical turmoil will make global supply chains, stretching all the way to China, unviable. In the new era, companies making products far from consumers risk not being able to transport goods to store shelves.<\/p>\n<p>The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, <a href=\"https:\/\/m.economictimes.com\/small-biz\/trade\/exports\/insights\/global-trade-is-already-suffering-from-war-kiel-institute-says\/amp_articleshow\/90067018.cms\">says<\/a> global trade is already dropping due to the Ukraine invasion.<\/p>\n<p>Declining trade also increases the risk of more war. \u201cDoes trade increase or decrease the likelihood of conflict?\u201d Samuel Huntington, the late Harvard political scientist, asked in his landmark work, \u201cThe Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.\u201d \u201cThe assumption that it reduces the probability of war between nations is, at a minimum, not proven, and much evidence exists to the contrary.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Huntington pointed out that expectation drives events. \u201cEconomic interdependence fosters peace<strong>, <\/strong>only \u2018when states expect that high trade levels will continue into the foreseeable future.\u2019\u201d If, however, trade partners \u201cdo not expect high levels of interdependence to continue, war is likely to result,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Last March, Admiral Philip Davidson, while in charge of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.usni.org\/2021\/03\/09\/davidson-china-could-try-to-take-control-of-taiwan-in-next-six-years\">warned<\/a> in Senate testimony that China could move against Taiwan \u201cduring this decade, in fact in the next six years.\u201d <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2022\/03\/10\/putin-watching-trump-putin-xi-no-longer-respect-country\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: \u2018Putin Was Watching\u2019: Trump Says Putin, Xi \u2018No Longer Respect Our Country\u2019)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cTaiwan is and always has been on the front lines of the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s military ambitions,\u201d Jonathan Ward, author of \u201cChina\u2019s Vision of Victory,\u201d told me. \u201cWith Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, the world is already witnessing the horrific effects of a revanchist view of history. The Communist Party has been even clearer about its ambitions than the Kremlin, and it has shown us for years the militarist character of \u2018the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.\u2019 The world must prepare accordingly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Communist Party at the moment is inward-focused, as Xi Jinping seeks a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/order-from-chaos\/2018\/02\/27\/7-things-you-need-to-know-about-lifting-term-limits-for-xi-jinping\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">precedent-breaking<\/a> third term as general secretary. Observers expect the ruling organization to decide on Xi\u2019s future at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/events\/toward-xis-third-term-chinas-20th-party-congress-and-beyond\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">20th National Congress<\/a>, which will be held, if tradition holds, this fall.<\/p>\n<p>China, therefore, is unlikely to launch any major military offense against Taiwan while the Party decides its future leadership.<\/p>\n<p>After leadership issues are settled, however, all bets regarding Taiwan are off. If Xi gets his third term, which most analysts assume will happen, he will substantially up the pressure on the island republic.<\/p>\n<p>After all, he has staked his legitimacy on annexing it.<\/p>\n<p><em>Gordon G. Chang is the author of \u201c<\/em>The Coming Collapse of China<em>.\u201d Follow him on Twitter <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/GordonGChang\">@GordonGChang<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact <a href=\"mailto:licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org\">licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Saturday, Beijing signaled it was going to take Taiwan soon, one way or another. As the international order continues to crumble \u2014 and as the pace of de-globalization quickens<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1373784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1373784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1373784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1373784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1373784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1373784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1373784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}