{"id":1368433,"date":"2022-03-10T08:26:59","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T13:26:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1368433"},"modified":"2022-03-10T08:34:20","modified_gmt":"2022-03-10T13:34:20","slug":"these-are-the-risks-facing-putin-and-his-inner-circle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/these-are-the-risks-facing-putin-and-his-inner-circle\/","title":{"rendered":"These are the Risks Facing Putin and His Inner Circle"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">20<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fthese-are-the-risks-facing-putin-and-his-inner-circle%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1368433&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p><em>As Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Chief of the Central Eurasia Division, <strong>Rob Dannenberg<\/strong> writes for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/with-his-only-option-being-escalation-this-is-how-putins-war-must-end\">Subscriber+Members<\/a> the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s war must end, we reached out to Cipher Brief Expert and former member of CIA\u2019s Senior Intelligence Service <strong>Steven Hall<\/strong>, who spent significant time in Moscow, to talk about the<\/em> <em>risks facing <strong>President Putin<\/strong> and his Inner Circle \u2013 including the risk that Putin\u2019s inner circle could turn on him. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>The Cipher Brief:<\/em><\/strong><em> Both the actions and threats \u2013 including nuclear threats \u2013 from Russian President Vladimir Putin, have prompted mass speculation about his mental state. Is the world witnessing an escalation by Putin and what do you think indicators of an escalation might be?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hall<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em> I think the reason that we are seeing this interesting behavior from Putin, and I usually preface this by saying that you must be careful because it\u2019s always been a difficult challenge, intelligence or otherwise, to see into Putin\u2019s mind or try to figure out what he\u2019s up to, just by the nature of the system.\u00a0 So, with that caveat, I think it\u2019s worth noting the strange things we\u2019ve been seeing in Putin\u2019s recent speeches, which have sometimes turned into rants. That, along with some of the other behaviors that he has displayed, does indicate that, whether it\u2019s because of COVID or whether it\u2019s because of the Ukraine crisis or whether it\u2019s because he\u2019s aging, he does appear be more and more isolated inside the Kremlin.<\/p>\n<p>At least one of the reasons why we\u2019re seeing some of these unique behaviors from him is that I really do think he is extremely concerned about the siloviki, (translates as \u2018people of force\u2019 and is used to describe the political elite that came from the Russian military or security services) or the military elites. I think he\u2019s worried about a coup. He\u2019s worried that what happened to Gorbachev in 1991, could happen to him. And that of course is going to cause him to go a little crazy because he\u2019s got to be wondering about that day and night. It\u2019s also going to cause him to be looking over his shoulder at the siloviki.<\/p>\n<p>A lot of people think the oligarchs will be the ones to overthrow him, or that there will be mass protests and uprising in the streets, but I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the way it\u2019s going to happen. If something happens internally in Russia, it\u2019s going to come from people like Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. It\u2019s going to come from his intelligence chiefs.\u00a0 That\u2019s what he\u2019s worried about. I also think that\u2019s what accounts for some of the strange behaviors that we\u2019ve been seeing from him recently.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>The Cipher Brief:<\/em><\/strong><em> We did see public tension between Putin and his intelligence chief during the national security council meeting that really launched this war.\u00a0 What we know about his inner circle and what is the likelihood that some of his inner circle might turn on him?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hall<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em> I think the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/video\/2022\/feb\/22\/speak-plainly-putin-tense-exchange-spy-chief-ukraine-video\">dressing down<\/a> of the SVR chief, Sergei Naryshkin, was an excellent example of two things. First, of Putin acting in an uncharacteristic fashion, not only to a member of the security elite, but also in the presence of his inner circle. Everybody saw that humiliation and if they didn\u2019t see it directly, they certainly heard about it afterwards. That is indeed a good example. But I think when we\u2019re assessing probabilities and the likelihood that there could be some sort of coup, it\u2019s worth looking to history. The closest historical event we have is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.history.com\/this-day-in-history\/soviet-hard-liners-launch-coup-against-gorbachev\">the attempt<\/a> on former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991. Some people are quick to say, \u201cWell, it could never happen because it was the military back then.\u201d And the military was involved with some of the security services, KGB specifically. But more importantly, when you\u2019re comparing the two situations, I think there is a lot more that they have in common than they have as differences.<\/p>\n<p>The primary motivating factor for the siloviki in 1991 to attempt a coup against Gorbachev was that they believed the Soviet Union at the time, was collapsing and that the whole system was going to go down. And they said, \u201cWe can\u2019t stand for that. We have to do something to save the Soviet Union.\u201d Fast forward to today, and look at what\u2019s happening to Russia right now, in terms of economic sanctions and in terms of the isolation that it\u2019s experiencing. Consider the ruble, which as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said, is worth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-07\/ruble-indicated-at-record-low-offshore-on-talk-of-oil-embargo?utm_source=google&#038;utm_medium=bd&#038;cmpId=google\">less than one penny<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Russian stock exchange has been closed for the entire week. All these things are happening to Russia and are showing no signs of letting up. I believe the siloviki, these days, have got to be thinking, \u201cIt\u2019s entirely possible that Russia as we know it could implode.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When the people who are capable of conducting a coup against Putin are arriving at that conclusion, then I think that dramatically increases the likelihood that they are at least considering, \u201cOkay, do we actually have to think the unthinkable? Do we have to get rid of Putin because he just becomes so isolated and so cornered that there could be a worst-case scenario.\u201d At some point he could say, \u201cI\u2019m going to use the nuclear option.\u201d And I think when they start thinking along those lines, that increases the likelihood that they would say, \u201cWe got to do something to make this stop.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>The Cipher Brief:<\/em><\/strong> <em>It\u2019s hard to understand how Russia wouldn\u2019t implode under the current sanctions and their wide-spread effects. It\u2019s not just the things you mentioned regarding the economy and the value of the ruble, but Western companies are abandoning operations, Russians are losing their jobs. I can imagine what those unemployment lines are going to look like, and people will be looking to the government for help.\u00a0 Let\u2019s game it out for a second, what might happen if you saw these internal economic pressure moving Russia closer to an implosion?<\/em><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Register for your own Expert-Level Briefing on <a href=\"https:\/\/attendee.gotowebinar.com\/register\/4198840714317866766\">Ukraine and How Private Sector Intelligence is Defining a New World<\/a> with Mandiant CEO Kevin Mandia<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Wednesday, March 23 from 1:30p \u2013 2:30p ET<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p><strong><em>Hall<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em> In the United States, we have three branches of government. In Russia, you <em>kind of<\/em> have three branches of government, too. It\u2019s Putin, and the siloviki, and then the oligarchs. So, the question for most Westerners is, \u201cWhat about the man on the street? We\u2019ve seen some significant protests.\u201d This is where it gets interesting, because things can, and they almost certainly will, continue to deteriorate in Russia. You\u2019re going to see more people on the streets. You\u2019re going to see more people who are impacted because the company that they worked for has closed, or they can\u2019t buy some of the basic necessities that they could before or be maybe their money is simply useless now. The goods are still there, but their credit cards won\u2019t work anymore. Or they don\u2019t have access to a ruble, or if they do, it\u2019s extremely devalued and they can\u2019t buy much with it.<\/p>\n<p>Will that cause people to take to the streets? Yes, it will. There have been times in Russian history when you had a whole bunch of people in the street. They don\u2019t have any doubts or any hesitation about protesting when they must, and they\u2019ll do it in massive numbers. But it comes with risk.<\/p>\n<p>The people who are responsible for the crackdowns are the ones who are controlled by these security elite, by the internal security services, by the police, among all these other groups that are under the control of various Russian internal structures. If those people are called upon to do their jobs, to repress the Russian people, then the question becomes one of internal pressure. Are the local police going to say, \u201cI\u2019m willing to repress, but I\u2019m not going to cause rivers of blood to flow down in Moscow.\u201d So those pressures cut both ways. They cut both for and against the government.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>The Cipher Brief:<\/em><\/strong><em> On that note, we\u2019re seeing reports that suggest \u2013 speculate really \u2013 that morale amongst the Russian military inside Ukraine is low. That\u2019s hard to assess, but what would that mean for the Russian campaign in Ukraine if true?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hall<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em> There are two points to consider. I believe there is something to the argument that basically says it is one scenario to climb out of your T82 tank or whatever model you happen to be driving, or your APC, and there are a bunch of Americans, or there is a bunch of terrorists or even Chechens \u2013 that\u2019s not so hard to fight against those guys. But when you jump out of your tank and you\u2019re looking at a little old lady, or a mother with kids in her arms, who speaks the same language you do, that carries a different psychological impact.\u00a0 That has to be taken into consideration of having the will to fight, which is one part of it. The other thing is on the Russian side, and I\u2019m not an expert in Russian military history, but Russians overcome a lot of what we would consider to be difficulties in Western militaries, by simply throwing more people and more ammunition at a problem. Say you\u2019ve got a unit that\u2019s a little bit soft because it\u2019s got a bunch of young guys who are second guessing why they are there. Fine, we\u2019ll bring in 10 more units and push those guys out of the way, or we\u2019ll just use more heavy artillery, and if it lands on an apartment building, so be it.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Cipher Brief <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/subscriber-plus\">Subscriber+Members<\/a> can access Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Chief of the Central Eurasia Division, Rob Dannenberg\u2019s assessment, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/with-his-only-option-being-escalation-this-is-how-putins-war-must-end\">With his only Option being Escalation, this is how Putin\u2019s War Must End<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p><strong><em>The Cipher Brief: <\/em><\/strong><em>Back to the idea of internal pressure within Russia, if we started to see some of those scenarios playing out that might indicate that the people closest to Putin were going to move against him, what would be the best course of action for the West in that case?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hall<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em> That is absolutely the right question to be asking.\u00a0 My gut instinct is to do no harm. The siloviki have a lot of experience keeping things very clandestine and very covert. So, I\u2019m not sure that even if we had top notch intelligence, that we would see it coming \u2013 even if a guy like Patrushev, for example, or Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the FSB were to be one of the coup leaders \u2013 which I think one of those guys would be \u2013 that they\u2019re not going to be welcoming of the West.\u00a0 If we were to reach out they are not going to say, \u201cThank goodness we got rid of Putin, now we can work together.\u201d It\u2019s still not going to be good for Russia if those guys conduct a coup and get rid of Putin. But it might be a lot better for Ukrainians, and it might be a lot better for the nuclear security of the world because their interest is precisely what you were talking about before which is that they want the system to continue to work. They want the oligarchs to keep making money with foreign companies. At the very least, they would want to try to return Russia to the status quo as opposed to, for example, signal a move toward a full-blown democracy, which isn\u2019t going to happen.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>The Cipher Brief:<\/em><\/strong><em> What are you most closely watching right now?<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Hall:<\/strong> For me, the toughest question is how many innocent Ukrainians are going to have to die before NATO does something? And are we making the same mistake that was made with Hitler, and Chamberlain? This is a tough question.\u00a0 For a decision to be made to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, that would have to have unanimity amongst NATO allies and a lot of the EU as well. As much as it may look like appeasement, it is a rational argument. I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s the right argument, but it is a rational argument to say, \u201cLook, we feel terrible for Ukraine and perhaps we could have done better in 2014, when he annexed Crimea, or in 2008, when he went after Georgia or after Russia\u2019s involvement in Syria. But the bottom line is that to basically commit to another world war, is something that might not be in the interest of the rest of the alliance. So that\u2019s a tough decision. I just don\u2019t know how that\u2019s going to play out.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Read more expert-driven national security insight, perspective and analysis in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecipherbrief.com\/\">The Cipher Brief<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Chief of the Central Eurasia Division, Rob Dannenberg writes for Subscriber+Members the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s war must end, we reached<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1368433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1368433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1368433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1368433\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1368433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1368433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1368433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}