{"id":1361667,"date":"2022-03-07T08:05:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-07T13:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1361667"},"modified":"2022-03-07T08:08:49","modified_gmt":"2022-03-07T13:08:49","slug":"james-s-robbins-china-may-be-eyeing-taiwan-after-putins-invasion-of-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/james-s-robbins-china-may-be-eyeing-taiwan-after-putins-invasion-of-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"James S. Robbins: China May Be Eyeing Taiwan After Putin\u2019s Invasion Of Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fjames-s-robbins-china-may-be-eyeing-taiwan-after-putins-invasion-of-ukraine%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1361667&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/RTSEBXR-e1484334685770.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<p><em>Editor\u2019s note: We endeavor to bring you the top voices on current events representing a range of perspectives. Below is a column arguing\u00a0<\/em><em>that China may soon take action on Taiwan soon. You can find a counterpoint <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2022\/03\/04\/lohman-china-can-afford-to-take-its-time-on-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>, where Heritage\u2019s Walter Lohman argues that <\/em><em>Taiwan is not in imminent danger of an invasion from China.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u201cUkraine today, Taiwan tomorrow?\u201d This was the question Taiwanese media <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/china-taiwan-ukraine-rcna17964\">headlined<\/a> last week as Russian troops moved across the border. The Kremlin\u2019s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine raises the question whether communist China will see an opportunity to settle its unfinished business with Taiwan.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/china-says-taiwan-is-not-ukraine\/vi-AAUcoBW\">denies<\/a> that there is any similarity between Russia\u2019s relationship with Ukraine and the PRC\u2019s to Taiwan. However, this is only because the communists have always argued that Formosa is an inalienable part of China and not a separate, sovereign country. Washington has played along with this notion through its longstanding policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d on the status of Taiwan. The upshot is that Chairman Xi would not have to make the type of case that Putin <a href=\"http:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/66181\">argued<\/a> last summer that Ukraine has no right to exist; the Chinese Communist Party never recognized Taiwan\u2019s political existence in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>The White House recognizes the threat and is already making moves to deter China from acting against Taiwan. Last week the guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson\u00a0cruised <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3168515\/us-warship-transits-sensitive-taiwan-strait-first-such-sailing?module=inline&#038;pgtype=article\">through the Taiwan Strait<\/a>\u00a0to assert navigation rights and send Beijing a message of continued US support. The recently released U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy pledges a stronger regional presence to counter China\u2019s expansionist designs. White House Indo-Pacific policy coordinator Kurt Campbell <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy\/article\/3168857\/us-signals-resolve-indo-pacific-taiwan-despite-ukraine-war\">said<\/a>, \u201cthere is a deep recognition and intention here inside the government, in the White House, to sustain every element of our engagement in the Indo-Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, it is an open question whether \u201cevery element of our engagement\u201d means the United States would use force to defend Taiwan if Beijing made a military move. A war game war conducted last fall looking at China seizing Taiwan\u2019s smaller islands <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/10\/26\/politics\/us-taiwan-war-game\/index.html\">concluded<\/a> the United States would have \u201cfew good options to respond without risking a major escalation and a war between the superpowers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Would the United States go to war over Taiwan? This is doubtful. The White House had ruled out armed intervention in Ukraine even before Russian troops crossed the border, vastly simplifying the Kremlin\u2019s risk calculations. The botched pullout from Afghanistan also added to global perceptions of U.S. military weakness, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/post-abc-poll-finds-a-deeply-pessimistic-nation-worried-about-the-economy-and-biden-e2-80-99s-leadership\/ar-AAUmtFe\">polls<\/a> show Americans strongly doubting President Biden\u2019s leadership abilities.<\/p>\n<p>As in Ukraine, the United States is not bound by treaty to intervene should Taiwan be invaded. In 2001 then-Senator Biden took President George W. Bush to task for suggesting America would use force to defend Taiwan, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/archive\/opinions\/2001\/05\/02\/not-so-deft-on-taiwan\/2adf3075-ee98-4e70-9be0-5459ce1edd5d\/\">arguing<\/a> \u201cthe president should not cede to Taiwan, much less to China, the ability automatically to draw us into a war across the Taiwan Strait.\u201d More recently when President Biden also suggested the U.S. would defend Taiwan, White House staffers quickly <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/us-cleans-bidens-commitment-defend-taiwan-chinese-invasion\/story?id=80727528\">walked those comments back<\/a>. Xi may believe that the current U.S. leadership would be unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, especially if China threatens escalation to the nuclear level ala Putin.<\/p>\n<p>Beijing may also not be impressed by the economic sanctions that have been imposed on Putin and his cronies. China, with the world\u2019s second largest economy, may be harder to isolate than eleventh-ranked Russia. Strong economic and financial countermeasures levied against Xi and the Chinese leadership may court retaliation which would damage the U.S. and western economies. We already know that the Biden administration is highly sensitive to the domestic effects of this type of economic warfare; witness the White House <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2022\/03\/04\/white-house-congress-wrestle-with-us-imports-russian-oil\/\">hesitancy<\/a> to go after Russia\u2019s petroleum sector, which would most harm Moscow but also disrupt oil markets and potentially boost already high inflation rates. Even the current sanctions against Russia are not cost free, and the same moves against China have severe global consequences.<\/p>\n<p>Communist China has a number of options to begin reducing Taiwan; mounting a cyber-assault, seizing offshore islands, mounting an air and\/or sea blockade, or invasion. Beijing\u2019s relative strength given its massive military buildup, especially in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/03\/05\/china\/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst\/index.html\">naval forces<\/a>, may convince Xi\u2019s policy makers they have the means, as well as motive and opportunity, to make the move. Plus, the PRC has no doubt learned from Russia\u2019s bungled initial moves on Ukraine and is planning a stronger, decisive assault.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. policymakers must understand that revisionist powers like Russia and China are willing to take risks dramatically to change the political map when the opportunity presents itself. In the case of Ukraine, the United States attempted to deter a developing crisis from turning into war, and deterrence failed. With Taiwan, the question may not be whether the United States can deter communist China, but rather does the prospect of escalation to superpower conflict deter the Biden administration from trying to save Taiwan.<\/p>\n<p><em>James S. Robbins is Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs at the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.afpc.org\/\"><em>American Foreign Policy Council<\/em><\/a><em> and Academic Dean ad Interim at the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iwp.edu\/\"><em>Institute of World Politics<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Editor\u2019s note: We endeavor to bring you the top voices on current events representing a range of perspectives. Below is a column arguing\u00a0that China may soon take action on Taiwan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1361667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1361667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1361667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1361667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1361667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1361667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1361667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}