{"id":1360623,"date":"2022-03-06T08:04:52","date_gmt":"2022-03-06T13:04:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1360623"},"modified":"2022-03-06T08:11:25","modified_gmt":"2022-03-06T13:11:25","slug":"nato-must-prepare-to-defend-the-suwalki-gap-as-russian-attacks-escalate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/nato-must-prepare-to-defend-the-suwalki-gap-as-russian-attacks-escalate\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO Must Prepare to Defend the Suwalki Gap as Russian Attacks Escalate"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">24<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fnato-must-prepare-to-defend-the-suwalki-gap-as-russian-attacks-escalate%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1360623&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>As the Biden administration monitors Moscow\u2019s reaction to the dramatic <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/03\/05\/ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelensky-zooms-with-us-lawmakers\/\">US and allied increases in assistance to Ukraine<\/a> as well as the punishing Western economic and financial sanctions on Russia, it should turn its focus to a relatively small corner of northeastern Europe that is familiar to military strategists but often overlooked by most policymakers and the general public.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2016\/11\/22\/this-is-where-wwiii-will-start\/\">Suwalki corridor<\/a> (also known as the Suwalki Gap) separates the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea from Belarus, now host to thousands of Russian troops and soon home to permanently stationed Russian forces, including advanced fighter jets and nuclear weapons. It is also the only way to get by road or rail from Poland and Central Europe to the Baltic states\u2014arguably <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/03\/04\/us-embassy-gets-ahead-of-biden-calls-russia-nuke-plant-attack-war-crime\/\">NATO\u2019s most exposed members<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A Russian move to seize control of the corridor may seem far-fetched, as it would explicitly involve an attack on NATO territory, triggering a US military response. Nonetheless, if Moscow\u2019s reinvasion of Ukraine has any central lesson to offer at this point, it\u2019s that US and allied officials must prepare now for worst-case scenarios by focusing on actual Russian military capabilities in the region, rather than the Kremlin\u2019s announced intent, considered estimates of Russia\u2019s strategic logic, or intelligence assessments of Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/03\/06\/latest-russia-ukraine-news-live-updates-of-the-war-2\/\"><strong>Get the latest<\/strong> <strong>updates<\/strong> <strong>in the Russia-Ukraine conflict with The Post\u2019s live coverage.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p>Forty miles wide as the crow flies, the Suwalki corridor isn\u2019t much of a corridor, at least in terms of natural boundaries such as rivers, coastlines, or mountains. Driving through the area last October while on a research trip to NATO units, I found it a wide-open rural region, predominantly characterized by rolling farmland interspersed with forests and small villages. Much of it is ideal terrain for tracked vehicles like tanks, given the very limited roadways and the gentle hills.<\/p>\n<p>Two highways\u2014one with two lanes each way, the other with just a single lane each way\u2014plus a rail line, are all the ground-based transportation infrastructure that connect Poland with the Baltic states. Since Russia\u2019s first invasion of Ukraine, in 2014, Western government officials, military leaders, and think tank experts have paid extra attention to this relatively narrow passageway between allies, primarily because of the chokepoint it represents should Russia seek to cut off the Baltics.<\/p>\n<p>These concerns have only amplified in the last week, as Western officials weigh whether assistance to Ukraine might paint the West as co-combatants in the eyes of international law, providing Putin with a justification for lashing out. It\u2019s also possible Moscow might respond militarily to the debilitating sanctions imposed by the West in the last week, in an echo of imperial Japan\u2019s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor following the imposition of a US oil export embargo. Or as US and other allied forces stream into the Baltic Sea and NATO\u2019s eastern flank, the Kremlin may perceive an increased threat to Kaliningrad and seize the Suwalki corridor to create a land bridge to the exclave.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Screen-Shot-2022-03-05-at-11.03.27-AM-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"854\" height=\"685\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Screen-Shot-2022-03-05-at-11.03.27-AM.png\" alt=\"Poland border\" class=\"wp-image-21427394\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Screen-Shot-2022-03-05-at-11.03.27-AM-1.png 854w, https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Screen-Shot-2022-03-05-at-11.03.27-AM-1.png?w=427 427w\" \/><\/a><figcaption>The Suwalki corridor separates the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea from Belarus \u2014 now host to thousands of Russian troops.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">foreignpolicy.com<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Kaliningrad\u2014formerly K\u00f6nigsberg\u2014has been Russian territory since the end of World War II, and it\u2019s now home to substantial Russian combat forces, including the Russian Baltic Fleet, advanced air defenses, and mobile nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles. Given this, Russia is particularly sensitive to any perceived threats to its control of the noncontiguous territory and might risk escalation if it misinterpreted NATO\u2019s actions near Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, seizing the Suwalki corridor would entail attacking Lithuania or Poland or both, leading directly to a war between NATO and Russia. This seems illogical or at best strategically unwise for Putin. However, the West\u2019s ability to know and understand Putin\u2019s logic and the rationale behind his decision-making has been obviously constrained by a lack of imagination, quality intelligence, or both.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, some thought it was illogical for Putin to order the full-scale invasion of Ukraine if his objective was simply to keep it out of NATO. The simmering Donbass conflict had effectively achieved this since 2014, since one of the informal requirements for alliance membership is a lack of territorial disputes with neighbors.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-318.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-318.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=1024\" alt=\"The Polish side of the so-called &#039;Suwalki Gap&#039;, an 80-kilometre stretch of Polish-Lithuanian border sanwiched between Kaliningrad and Belarus is pictured on July 3, 2016 near Zerdziny, Poland.\" class=\"wp-image-21427401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-318.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-318.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-318.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=512 512w\" \/><\/a><figcaption>The Polish side of the so-called \u201cSuwalki Gap,\u201d is an 80-kilometer stretch of the Polish-Lithuanian border sandwiched between Kaliningrad and Belarus.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">JANEK SKARZYNSKI\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Additionally, no authorities in Washington or Brussels were seriously pushing for Ukrainian membership in the alliance, and Russia\u2019s diplomats and its intelligence services surely knew this. Moreover, Putin\u2019s recent rhetoric of grievance against the West is nothing new\u2014these are themes he has espoused for years. So, why invade now? The answer isn\u2019t clear, aside from the conclusion that this war is about something more than just keeping Ukraine out of NATO.<\/p>\n<p>For this reason, trying to discern Putin\u2019s intent going forward is a fool\u2019s errand. The West cannot assume it understands how Putin might react to the cratering of the Russian economy, whether his recent rants on pushing NATO out of Central and Eastern Europe amount to policy directives, or how he might exploit his new, practically colonial relationship with Belarus, which is now hosting tens of thousands of Russian troops.<\/p>\n<p>By the same token, the West therefore cannot assume that Russia won\u2019t make a move against the Suwalki corridor just because it appears illogical. In fact, during last year\u2019s Zapad military exercise, Russian and Belarusian troops reportedly practiced closing the Suwalki corridor by attacking from Belarus in the direction of Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/ukraine.warmap-March4-V1-13.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"763\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/ukraine.warmap-March4-V1-13.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=1024\" alt=\"Russia&#039;s invasion of Ukraine continues on March 5, 2022.\" class=\"wp-image-21427409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/ukraine.warmap-March4-V1-13.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/ukraine.warmap-March4-V1-13.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/ukraine.warmap-March4-V1-13.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=512 512w\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine continues on March 5, 2022.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Instead of trying to discern Putin\u2019s intent or rationale, the United States and its allies must focus on the capabilities the Kremlin has amassed in and around Ukraine and Belarus. On the eve of the latest invasion, Russia had deployed 30,000 troops into Belarus, including elite Spetsnaz units, as well as an array of equipment like Su-25 ground attack aircraft, attack and assault helicopters, an S-400 air defense unit, and drones\u2014most of these forces have moved into Ukraine in the last week or continue to support operations there from Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere, from Ukraine\u2019s northeast, east, and south, another roughly 120,000 Russian troops are entering Ukraine along with an array of armored vehicles, rockets, artillery, and more. In sum, these capabilities represent the most significant aggregation of conventional combat power in Eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War.<\/p>\n<p>Given all this, the West needs to dramatically strengthen its posture and infrastructure in and around the Suwalki region.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-314.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-314.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=1024\" alt=\"A Polish border post is pictured on July 3, 2016 in Zerdziny, northern Poland on the NATO nation&#039;s frontier with alliance partner Lithuania and Russia&#039;s Kaliningrad region.\" class=\"wp-image-21427412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-314.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-314.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/Polish-border-314.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;w=512 512w\" \/><\/a><figcaption>A Polish border post is pictured on July 3, 2016, in Zerdziny, northern Poland on the NATO nation\u2019s frontier with alliance partner Lithuania and Russia\u2019s Kaliningrad region. <\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">JANEK SKARZYNSKI\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In terms of posture, British and Canadian ground forces should return permanently to the continent at brigade scale of roughly 4,000 troops each, building on their relatively small contingents in Estonia and Latvia, respectively. Meanwhile, German ground forces should also expand to brigade size in Lithuania.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to recent temporary increases in US rotational presence, Washington should shift toward permanent presence of armor, combat aviation, electronic warfare, drone, engineer, and air defense units. Additionally, Italy, Spain, and France\u2014given their military size and importance in the alliance\u2014must commit interoperable, battalion-size units of around 800 troops each to permanent basing in Poland or Lithuania as well.<\/p>\n<p>Quickly improving militarily-relevant infrastructure in the Suwalki region, substantially and permanently bolstering allied force posture in northeastern Europe, and clearly laying the blame for the complete upending of European security at Putin\u2019s feet are necessary steps.<\/p>\n<p>Relying on Western guesses about how the Kremlin will respond logically is too great a risk, especially if the alliance hopes to keep the Suwalki corridor open.<\/p>\n<p><em>This report was first published in <\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>foreignpolicy.com<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>John Deni is a research professor at the US Army War College\u2019s Strategic Studies Institute and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Biden administration monitors Moscow\u2019s reaction to the dramatic US and allied increases in assistance to Ukraine as well as the punishing Western economic and financial sanctions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1360623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1360623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1360623"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1360623\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1360623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1360623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1360623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}