{"id":1348360,"date":"2022-02-28T07:35:16","date_gmt":"2022-02-28T12:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1348360"},"modified":"2022-02-28T07:43:16","modified_gmt":"2022-02-28T12:43:16","slug":"mark-nuckols-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/mark-nuckols-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Mark Nuckols: Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">6<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fmark-nuckols-ukraine%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1348360&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div id=\"article-header\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12\">\n<div class=\"contributor-img pull-left\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/townhall.com\/columnists\/marknuckols\/\"><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Mark Nuckols\" class=\"img-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/media.townhall.com\/townhall\/reu\/contributor-sm\/authorimages\/marknuckols.gif\" \/><br \/>\n<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p>|<\/p>\n<p>Posted: Feb 27, 2022 12:01 AM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<p><em>The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"article-body\">\n<aside id=\"aside1\" class=\"left aside-wrapper aside-wrapper-950\">\n<\/aside>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">A few caveats. All I write here is based on limited information on conditions on the ground, predictions are dicey because I do not know exactly what Putin is thinking, and let me say clearly I do support Ukraine and I loathe the Putin regime.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\"><strong>Some Misconceptions<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">I think the whole \u201cPutin is afraid of Ukraine as a post-Soviet democratic example to Russia\u201d is exaggerated, if not plain wrong. Very, very few Russians want Russia to be like Ukraine, because Ukraine is a poor country burdened by grossly ineffective government. And note: there are about a million Ukrainians who live and work in Russia, economic migrants. There are basically no Russian citizens moving to Ukraine for work. And while both countries suffer from corruption, the Russian state performs far better and the economy is much stronger.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Likewise, I think the \u201cPutin is a dictator, Ukraine is a flowering democracy\u201d narrative is mostly wrong. Putin is an autocrat, elections are not fair, but Russia is not a dictatorship. There are opposition parties and there is still an opposition press. But the fact is, Putin remains popular. Ukraine does have more democratic elections, but discontent is high, people are cynical about politics.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\"><strong>So What\u2019s Next?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">So what\u2019s going on right now? My sense is Ukraine cannot hold out long, its military is simply overwhelmed by the Russian war machine. And what does Putin want? Basically, to strip Ukraine of its sovereignty and make it a vassal state. That means that Kyiv recognize the annexation of Crimeaand the \u201cindependence\u201d of Donesk and Lugansk. It means a treaty obligation to sever ties with NATO and the EU. And it means Versailles style limitations on Ukraine\u2019s military. Oh, and the installation of a pro-Moscow puppet government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">President Zelensky has two options. Maybe his government can hold onto Western Ukraine in the hope that Russian occupation of the rest of Ukraine will become too costly for Moscow. I do not think this option holds great promise. More likely, he will have to swallow the bitter pill of submitting to Putin\u2019s ultimatum. In one sense, much of what Putin demands is mere recognition of present realities. NATO and EU membership were pipe dreams all along, and Crimea was lost forever. But of course Putin\u2019s demands go further, beyond what any sovereign country could submit to without occupation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">But Ukraine is coming under occupation, its two largest cities including its capital will be under Russian control within days. I wish it weren\u2019t so, but I think capitulation now is better than capitulation later. At least less blood will be shed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">God bless Ukraine. But that matters not, when Ukraine has no real allies and limited capacity to resist naked Russian aggression. And damn Putin and Russia. And that matters not as well, sanctions will hurt but will not be decisive. It\u2019s all a terrible tragedy, and senseless. Ukraine represented no real threat to Russia, this war is the product of Putin\u2019s oversized ego, his paranoia, and a bloated sense of Russian pride.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">And the irony? Putin has created a neighbor whose 44 million people will bitterly hate Russia, forever. Other post-Soviet states like Uzbekistan will regard Moscow with renewed suspicion. And NATO is now united like no time since the Cold War. The conquest of Ukraine will be a tactical victory but a strategic defeat.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>| Posted: Feb 27, 2022 12:01 AM  The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1898703,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1348360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/cndimages.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/IMG_2758-scaled-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1348360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348360\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1898703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1348360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1348360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1348360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}