{"id":1336441,"date":"2022-02-24T08:25:26","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T13:25:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1336441"},"modified":"2022-02-24T08:38:12","modified_gmt":"2022-02-24T13:38:12","slug":"study-more-u-s-troops-in-europe-could-deter-or-provoke-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/study-more-u-s-troops-in-europe-could-deter-or-provoke-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"Study: More U.S. Troops in Europe Could Deter \u2013 Or Provoke \u2013 Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">26<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fstudy-more-u-s-troops-in-europe-could-deter-or-provoke-russia%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=1336441&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/47358163321_18806038ee_k.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/02\/joe-biden-is-sending-f-35s-and-apache-helicopters-to-deter-russia\/\">Sending more U.S. troops to Europe<\/a> could deter Russia from invading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2022\/02\/why-cant-nato-admit-ukraine-has-no-chance-of-joining-nato\/\">Ukraine<\/a>. Or, it could provoke Russia to retaliate.\n<\/p>\n<p>Exactly how American troops are deployed against Russia can profoundly affect whether their presence deters Moscow from aggression, or escalates the crisis, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA720-2.html\">new study by U.S. think tank RAND<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur research indicates that U.S. forces positioned in Europe are associated with the deterrence of malign activities in competition as well as armed conflict,\u201d the study concluded. \u201cDrawdowns of U.S. forces could threaten to undermine that deterrent, while a sharp increase in the number of U.S. forces\u2014especially if they are present in substantial numbers and positioned in close proximity to Russia\u2014are likely to provoke hostile measures directed at the host countries, at least in the short term.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur research also suggests that small numbers of forces positioned in vulnerable states (such as NATO\u2019s Enhanced Forward Presence forces) are unlikely by themselves to provoke severe reactions,\u201d RAND also noted. \u201cHowever, any initiative to reduce or withdraw U.S. forces from these small, tripwire deployments likely would signal decreasing U.S. commitment to the region and thus potentially embolden Moscow.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The study comes just as Russia has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/russia-ukraine-breakaway-regions-putin-forces\/\">recognized the independence<\/a> of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People\u2019s Republics in what most of the world still considers eastern Ukraine. Russia has moved <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/putin-recognize-donetsk-luhansk-republics-ukraine-166bbe54-2d6a-446a-87bd-e9e63cf21ca9.html\">\u201cpeacekeeping\u201d troops<\/a> into secessionist areas in what may presage a full-scale Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine, while the West has retaliated with economic sanctions against Russia. The U.S. is also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2022\/02\/23\/us-military-pentagon-ukraine-russia\/\">reinforcing its forces<\/a> in Europe with troops and aircraft.\n<\/p>\n<p>For the most part, the RAND study did not address the current crisis in Ukraine (RAND declined to answer questions from 1945 on the study because the think tank is advising the U.S. government on the crisis). Rather, RAND focused on U.S. and Russian actions during past conflicts \u2013 including the Cold War and the 2014 Russian occupation of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.19fortyfive.com\/2021\/11\/russias-playbook-for-ukraine-another-crimea-land-grab\/\">Crimea<\/a> \u2013 to assess how U.S. military posture can deter Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, the most effective U.S. military option has been deploying boots on the ground. \u201cOur statistical analysis found that the presence of U.S. personnel nearby the potential target of hostile measures (in-region as opposed to in the target country itself) is particularly associated with a reduction in the likelihood of many types of malign activities,\u201d RAND said.\n<\/p>\n<p>Less effective were joint training exercises and arms transfers to allies \u201cbecause they do not pre-commit the United States to defend its allies or partners in the same way as forward-positioned forces.\u201d Indeed, military exercises can spark war if they are perceived as a prelude for a U.S. attack.\n<\/p>\n<p>This brings up the most significant finding of the study: what counts isn\u2019t just deploying U.S. troops, but also how they\u2019re deployed. The best option appears to be small, regular deployments of American forces to locations near Russia \u2013 but not so close that they spook Moscow.\n<\/p>\n<p>The worst option appears to be sudden deployments of large numbers of U.S. troops close to the Russian border, that scare Moscow into retaliating against the host nations. \u201cForces stationed in vulnerable countries can make the host countries targets for a variety of hostile measures, from military intimidation (with the ever-present risk of inadvertent escalation) to subtler forms of aggression that are\n<\/p>\n<p>intended to impose costs on or weaken the will of host countries,\u201d said RAND.\n<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Army\u2019s new emphasis on developing <a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/reboot\/current-us-militarys-top-priority-long-range-precision-fires-195363\">long-range guided weapons,<\/a> including missiles with a thousand-mile reach, could also push Russia into retaliating \u201cby targeting host countries with hostile measures.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>RAND recommends retaining U.S. troops in Europe, even if their bases are distant from Russia. But it warns against a policy of short-term deployments to forward bases near Russia.\n<\/p>\n<p>As during the Cold War, relying on U.S. troop deployments to deter Russia is a dangerous gambit. \u201cOn balance, a great many posture changes are more often associated with escalation than with deterrence,\u201d RAND concluded. \u201cWithout clear goals, it is difficult to weigh whether the escalation risks can be justified.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p><em>A seasoned defense and national security writer and expert, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/michaelpeck\/?sh=695d066a1e4e\">Michael Peck<\/a> is a contributing writer for Forbes Magazine. His work has appeared in <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/author\/michael-peck\/\">Foreign Policy Magazine<\/a>, Defense News, The National Interest, and other publications. He can be found on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mipeck1\">Twitter<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/mipeck\/\">Linkedin<\/a><u>.<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sending more U.S. troops to Europe could deter Russia from invading Ukraine. Or, it could provoke Russia to retaliate. Exactly how American troops are deployed against Russia can profoundly affect<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1336441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1336441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1336441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1336441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1336441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1336441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1336441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}