“Republican primary voters don’t punish fighters—they reward them. Chip Roy’s brand as a disruptor probably helps him more than it hurts,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. 

“But runoffs are about who shows up, and it’s notoriously difficult for a second-place finisher to make up that kind of ground, particularly against a self-funding opponent who took first place by 7.5 points,” Lennox continued.

Middleton received 39.1% of the votes in the March 3 primary, with Roy only receiving 31.6% of the votes, meaning voter turnout could be the determining factor in this race in a state where voter turnout in runoffs is notoriously low.   

Roy, who sits on the powerful Rules Committee, has become known as a conservative firebrand in the House GOP caucus during his four-term tenure. He has fought hard for fiscal conservatism, often finding himself in the middle of late-night meetings during funding fights, as he looks to claw back spending. 

Roy is also a staunch supporter of securing the border and calling out Islamification. Roy said that as attorney general, he would be willing to call out district attorneys and the state legislature if they are not doing the job as he sees correctly. 

Notably, Roy even called for Paxton to resign from his post as attorney general amid his 2020 bribery and abuse-of-office scandal, in which he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.

The Texas Republican was also a key holdout that leadership had to flip during negotiations for Trump’s Big, Beautiful bill passed last year, having held up the legislation to negotiate more offsets to the tax cuts being made permanent. 

However, Roy has also clashed with Trump a handful of times, notably when the president decided to raise the debt ceiling without stringent restrictions on future spending, a stance previously condemned by many Republicans.

“The very unpopular ‘Congressman’ from Texas, Chip Roy, is getting in the way, as usual, of having yet another Great Republican Victory – All for the sake of some cheap publicity for himself. Republican obstructionists have to be done away with,” Trump posted on Truth Social in 2024.

While the hard-line conservative has found himself a subject of the president’s ire, Roy said they talk “pretty regularly,” and that Trump said “flattering things, very nice things” about him when he visited Texas earlier this month.

“My voting record speaks for itself,” Roy said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “It is overwhelmingly aligned with the president, with what you would define as the MAGA agenda, America first.”

“I have done more to deliver for the president’s agenda while being willing to stand up to the swamp than pretty much any other member of Congress,” he added.

But Roy’s message has not reached all voters.

“He’s too anti-Trump,” 61-year-old Texas voter Al Guadagno told the Washington Examiner. “I just don’t trust Chip Roy to do the right thing anymore. He’s not a bad person. I don’t think he’s a bad person, but I think he needs to be more supportive of Trump’s policies.”

72-year-old Charlie Dwyer told the Washington Examiner called Roy a “flag.”

“Which direction are the winds blowing?” Dwyer remarked. “That’s the way Chip Roy goes. I’ve never liked flag politicians.”

Middleton, meanwhile, has aligned himself with Trump throughout his campaign, as an America First candidate, aiming to secure voters who have taken Roy’s fighter mentality as anti-Trump.

Lennox said Roy doesn’t drink the “MAGA Kool-Aid,” meaning he doesn’t go along with a policy just because the president jumps on it. 

“He’s not a MAGA Kool-Aid drinker, and there’s still a big enough constituency in the Republican Party, within Texas, let alone nationally, for principled conservatives, particularly as we start entering the end of the Trump era,” Lennox told the Washington Examiner last month. 

However, despite Roy often being a headache for House GOP leadership, many MAGA Republicans still recognize Roy as a conservative fighter. 

“With most of them [politicians], I don’t agree with everything that they believe in lockstep, but for the most part, I believe in the majority of what he’s pushed, and I really hope he wins,” 51-year-old Texas voter Stacey Pierce told the Washington Examiner. “I mean, it’s gonna be sad to have him not be my representative, but I think he could probably do something better as an AG.”

Even some of Trump’s most staunch supporters are Roy fans. 

DEMOCRATS MOVE TO FORCE DHS FUNDING VOTE WITHOUT ICE AND BORDER PATROL

Former Major League Baseball player and congressional candidate Mark Teixeira sang Roy’s praises in an interview with the Washington Examiner. Teixeira is running for the seat Roy vacated to run for statewide office, noting that their children attend the same school.

“He’s got the right attitude,” Teixeira said. “He works his tail off. He’s got experience, and I think that the people of Texas would be very lucky to have Chip as their attorney general.”