White House touts historic drop in annual murders
Teh White house highlighted new crime data showing U.S. murders on pace for the largest single-year decline on record, crediting President Trump’s tough-on-crime policies. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt shared an Axios report citing the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which found murders from January-October 2025 fell about 19% versus the same period in 2024, just under 6,000 total. RTCI also reported declines in other violent crimes, including a 23% drop in carjackings and an 8% drop in aggravated assaults. Crime analyst Jeff Asher warned the RTCI figures are preliminary and will be confirmed when federal (FBI) data are released next year but noted RTCI has typically been within 1.5% of final federal totals.the governance and some advisers framed the data as evidence that the president is “restoring law and order.”
White House touts historic drop in annual murders
The Trump administration is ending the year on a high note, saying President Donald Trump‘s tough-on-crime policies have driven down violent crime at a rate never before seen in the United States.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt shared a story published by Axios on Wednesday morning, highlighting statistics that showed the U.S. murder rate is on pace for its largest, single-year decrease on record.
The outlet cited data from the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles monthly crime statistics from hundreds of local, state, and federal agencies. The data show that the total murders committed in the U.S. between January and October of 2025 fell just shy of 6,000, a more than 19% dip compared to January through October of 2024.
RTCI has shown American murders steadily dropping each year since the COVID-19 pandemic highs of 2021, but 2025’s decline would put the U.S. on pace for the fastest decrease in U.S. history.
Jeff Asher, a crime statistics analyst, wrote over the weekend that the RTCI data should not be taken as gospel and will only be confirmed once the federal government publishes its data for 2025 early next year. However, Asher noted that, over the past 7 years, the RTCI analysis has never been more than 1.5% off the federal government’s statistics once finalized.
“In other words, the percentage points will change a bit, but we have sufficient information now to say what next year’s FBI crime estimates will say with fairly good confidence,” Asher explained on Sunday.
Furthermore, RTCI showed significant decreases in other types of violent crime, including a 23% decrease in carjackings and an 8% decrease in aggravated assaults.
Leavitt shared the statistics on X with a simple caption: “President Trump is restoring Law and Order in America.”
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One out-of-government Trump adviser told the Washington Examiner that the RTCI statistics are “YUGE.”
“This just proves what we’ve been telling y’all for the past year,” the adviser said in a statement. “President Trump is making America safe again. Merry Christmas, ya filthy animals!”
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