The predictive power of off-year elections is mixed, and next year’s races will play out in a much wider swathe of the country. Some things should concern Republicans about the 2026 midterm elections, while other worries are overblown. 

No guarantee of 2026 blue wave 

Democrats won nearly every important election this year, a near-clean sweep. The outcomes weren’t surprising since Democrats consistently led in most polls and were at least within the margin of error in the Virginia attorney general’s race, but the size of some of these wins was greater than expected.

For example, Democrats led in the New Jersey governor’s race, a state that has consistently teased and then disappointed Republicans in recent years. The GOP’s hopes for an upset rested on gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli overperforming his poll numbers like he did in a close 2021 loss. This time, the Democrats’ lead was much smaller, but Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) outperformed her poll numbers and won the governor’s race by more than 13 points.

Nevertheless, the biggest races on Tuesday were in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. None of the aforementioned states voted for Trump in 2024, at the peak of the conservative shift in the electorate. It is no shock to see that the Democrats won, especially after some corresponding progressive movement.

That doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a repeat of the 2018 midterm elections, when, during Trump’s first term, Democrats gained 40 House seats. That year, Republicans had to defend 25 House seats in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016; eventually, they wound up losing 22 of them. Next year, Republicans will be defending just three seats in districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024.

About four-fifths of the current House majority represent districts that Trump won by at least 12.5 points, and roughly three-fifths hail from districts Trump carried by more than 20 points. Even in 2018, the last blue wave, Republicans lost zero seats in districts that fit the latter description. 

That doesn’t mean the House majority is necessarily safe. Democrats may only need to net two seats to flip the chamber, as Republicans are still defending 19 seats in districts where Trump won by 7.5 points or less, following a loss of 15 of 23 such seats in 2018. However, the fight for the majority will take place in redder territory than Virginia, New Jersey, or New York City.

Nonpresidential year turnout still a major problem for GOP

That said, there was still a smattering of results in redder areas, such as Mississippi, Georgia, and parts of Pennsylvania, that also went poorly for Republicans. Overall, Democrats retain their Trump-era advantage among higher-propensity voters, while the lower-propensity voters who supported the president in 2024 are largely absent.

This is a reversal from the administrations of former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Both faced even worse initial midterm elections than Trump did, when Republicans won their first House majority in 40 years under Clinton and Democrats shed 63 House seats under Obama. But turnout went up in the presidential election years and both Democrats were reelected, Clinton fairly comfortably so and both with north of 300 electoral votes.

It remains to be seen whether that dynamic plays out again for Republicans in 2028 without Trump on the ballot. House Republicans experienced a larger net gain in 2020, with a losing Trump at the top of the ticket, than they did in 2022, while winning a narrow majority without him. But either way, it won’t help Republicans next year.

Trump’s 2024 voter mobilization effort was helmed by Elon Musk, from whom the president is estranged, and Charlie Kirk, who has since been assassinated.

It’s inflation, stupid

One aspect winning Democrats had in common this year was a focus on affordability. Successful socialist Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, in particular, ran against New York City’s notoriously high cost of living.

Inflation helped Trump win in 2024, but now that he is an incumbent, the issue is a liability. Inflation may have decreased from its 41-year high under former President Joe Biden, but it remains above the rate preferred by the Federal Reserve. The price increases are also cumulative, so even as inflation decreases, prices remain higher than they were several years ago. Many adults have no memory of previous high inflation in their lifetimes.

Worse for Republicans is that inflation is difficult to control without weakening the job market. The last major bout of inflation was curbed by interest rate hikes that led to a recession and 10.8% unemployment, although the economy subsequently experienced a boom. Even a successful monetary policy won’t return consumer prices to 2019 levels.

Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and his tariffs provide Democrats with a tangible point to blame him for the rising cost of living, even if their actual effect on prices overall is somewhat disputed. In a headline, it is hard to imagine the outlet running about higher income tax rates, as NPR reported Wednesday, “Yes, Trump’s tariffs are raising billions — but at a steep economic cost.”

There may be a pivot to come. “The president is very keyed into what’s going on, and he recognizes, like anybody, that it takes time to do an economic turnaround, but all the fundamentals are there, and I think you’ll see him be very, very focused on prices and cost of living,” deputy White House chief of staff James Blair told Politico after Tuesday’s elections.

Culture did not trump the economy 

While the sample size is limited, Republicans have been unable to counteract economic anxieties by appealing to social issues, as Democrats are generally on the wrong side of public opinion and show little sign of moderating. Democrats, however, mostly downplayed social issues when speaking to the wider electorate.

Republicans, by contrast, partied as if it were 2021. The White House faulted Republican Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for an excessive focus on transgender ideology in her losing gubernatorial campaign and New Jersey’s Ciattarelli for not paying enough attention to pocketbook issues in his.

If this trend continues next year, it will be a problem for the GOP.

Government shutdown should be in rearview mirror

The government shutdown hurt Republicans in this year’s elections. Polls are starting to more clearly show the GOP getting more blame than the Senate Democrats, who refuse to vote to reopen the government. Federal workers in places like Northern Virginia are already predisposed to dislike Trump.

But the current impasse is likely to be over long before the next elections. The 1995-96 shutdowns likely benefited Clinton, but Republicans retained control of Congress afterward. Republicans finally won back the Senate in the next election after the 2013 Obamacare shutdown.

Maybe there will be more shutdowns or one closer to the midterm elections. However, if this shutdown persists, the country will face much bigger problems than the next congressional elections.

The podcasters didn’t matter

Heated debates are occurring about the soul of the Republican Party and the direction of the conservative movement, many of which surfaced in the days leading up to the election. Social media influencers played a disproportionate role in them. 

DEMOCRATS ROMP IN OFF-YEAR ELECTIONS, EMBOLDENING FIGHT AGAINST TRUMP 

These debates are important. But some have blamed intraconservative infighting for the election losses. However suboptimal the timing, few of these elections were close enough that even particularly influential podcasters could have swung them.

The 2024 Trump campaign made better use of the new media environment than their Democratic rivals, but this was more a function of candidate appearances on these platforms than the hosts’ pronouncements. Candidates’ associations with podcasters who say controversial things will also be made an issue in future campaigns. But nothing said on edgy podcasts or at conservative think tanks in previous days decided who the next governor of Virginia would be.