Virginia shake-up: Earle-Sears surging, Miyares overtakes Jones
A recent poll reveals notable shifts in virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial and attorney general races just three weeks before Election Day.Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has narrowed the gap with Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger, reducing her lead by half. Simultaneously occurring, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (Republican) has overtaken Democratic challenger Jay Jones following a texting scandal involving threatening messages from Jones. The Trafalgar Group poll shows Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by only 2.6% and Miyares leading Jones by 5.8%. Republican John Reid is also closing in on Democrat Ghazala hashmi in the lieutenant governor race. These developments echo Virginia’s 2021 election, where Republicans made a late surge amid controversies related to local school policies. The attorney general race has gained national attention, with significant financial support from Republican groups backing Miyares. these changes have given new momentum to Republicans in what had appeared to be a more stable Democratic lead.
Virginia shake-up: Earle-Sears surging, Miyares overtakes Jones
Virginia’s races for governor and attorney general, newly jarred by a turbulent debate and a texting scandal, have suddenly changed three weeks before Election Day, giving new hope to Republicans.
After sitting in a holding pattern for months, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has cut Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger’s lead in half, and Attorney General Jason Miyares, running for reelection, has overcome Democrat Jay Jones’ lead.
In a new Trafalgar Group poll of likely general election voters completed Friday, Earle-Sears trailed Spanberger by just 2.6%, 47.7% to 45.1%. And Miyares has overtaken Jones, 48.9% to 43.1%.
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Earle-Sears, who dogged Spanberger in their Thursday one-on-one debate, picked up a chunk of undecided voters in the latest Trafalgar survey. In a similar poll from about a week ago, Spanberger led 47.1% to 41.9%. Undecided voters in that Oct. 2 survey were at 9.4% and now they are 5.6%.
Earle-Sears is within Trafalgar’s 2.9% margin of error.
The swing was much bigger for Miyares, who trailed Jones a week ago, 48.8% to 45%.
His 5.8% lead in the race followed the release of text messages from Jones threatening Republican commonwealth lawmakers and their families. Earle-Sears and Miyares have seized on the death texts and demanded that Jones quit the race, which he has refused to do.
John Reid, the Republican running for lieutenant governor, has also benefited and is now less than one point behind Democrat Ghazala Hasmi, 46.8% to 45.9%. In the October 2 Trafalgar survey, Reid trailed Hasmi by nearly five points, 48.2% to 43.6%.
The poll parallels Cygnal Polling & Analytics, which has shown a tightening of the gubernatorial race.
The late surge by the Republicans echoes the last commonwealth gubernatorial election when Gov. Glenn Youngkin and his ticket of Earle-Sears and Miyares overcame the Democratic ticket headed by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe after he misjudged voter reaction to a Loudoun County public schools scandal.
This year, the school system has also played a role in the election with Spanberger and Earle-Sears on the opposite side of a scandal over transgender bathroom policies.
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Hanging over the election this year is President Donald Trump‘s sweeping firings of federal workers, many of whom live in Virginia.
The attorney general race has attracted national news coverage and attention due to the threatening nature of the texts from Jones. The Republican Attorneys General Association, for example, just doubled its investment in Miyares, adding $2.5 million to the $2 million it previously donated.
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