Vance Leads Newsom in Head-To-Head 2028 Matchup: Respected Pollster
A recent emerson College poll shows Vice President J.D. Vance holding a slim lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, with 46% support for Vance and 45% for Newsom, while 10% remain undecided. Neither has officially announced a presidential run,but both are seen as likely frontrunners for their respective parties. The poll reflects a polarized electorate largely unchanged since previous surveys, suggesting individual issues may have limited influence on voter opinions. Newsom has been raising his national profile, notably opposing former President Trump and engaging in political strategies like California’s redistricting efforts. Vance is also active in redistricting, advocating for more Republican seats in Indiana, though success there is uncertain. Their political rivalry includes public exchanges on social media around issues like immigration enforcement. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3%.
Vice President J.D. Vance has held onto a narrow lead over Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a new hypothetical poll of the 2028 presidential race.
The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that 46 percent of participants would support Vance, 45 percent would vote for Newsom, and 10 percent were undecided.
Neither of the lawmakers have formally announced a bid for president, but are currently seen as their parties’ likely frontrunners in the next presidential race.
The poll is the latest in Emerson’s series of head-to-head match-ups between the vice president and governor, which found Vance less than a point ahead of Newsom in a late August poll.
In July, Emerson’s poll had Vance leading Newsom by 3 percent.
“The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling, said in a press release.
“It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or if the dominant factor continues to be the economy, which voters, particularly women and younger voters, see as heading in the wrong direction.”
The Democratic governor has been expanding his national profile this year, which has led him to become a leading voice in opposing Trump.
Newsom also gained national attention for imitating the president’s communication style on social media.
Vance said Newsom’s attempts to “mimic” the president were inauthentic during an appearance on “The Will Cain Show” in August.
Newsom has also led the effort to gerrymander California in response to Texas’ mid-decade redistricting. California voters will vote on a Newsom-backed map that seeks to flip five seats from Republican to Democratic via Proposition 50 on Nov. 4 — an effort that has received a mixed reception from voters in the Golden State.
Vance is also tied up in the redistricting battle, as he has made two trips to Indiana in three months to push for the state to redraw its lines to add more Republican seats.
It’s unclear if the effort will succeed, as Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun told the White House in early October he was concerned about the effort’s chances in the State Senate.
Both Vance and Newsom also exchanged blows over social media in June following President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles to quell protests against immigration raids and protest border patrol agents in the area.
Emerson College’s poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and was conducted Oct. 13 and 14. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3 percent.
Newsom’s staff directed the Daily Caller News Foundation to a specific office for comment and have not immediately responded.
Vance’s office also did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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