U.S. Military Leaders Concerned About China’s Shipyard Capacity, Naval Buildup
ANALYSIS: Shipyard Capacity, China’s Naval Buildup Worries U.S. Military Leaders
1/26/2023
Navy photo
The shipbuilding industry base is afloat, even as U.S. military leaders engage in a heated debate about the future-generation of navy fleets.
Since 2016, the Navy has worked towards a goal of a 355-ship fleet as set out in its long term force structure plan.
But Navy ambitions have been complicated by the Marine Corps’ modernization strategy, prompting back-and-forth between service leadership and lawmakers regarding future fleet size and structure.
In addition, China’s more aggressive moves in the Indo-Pacific — especially considering Taiwan — is elevating the need for greater shipbuilding and maintenance capacity to meet demand, naval power experts said.
Retired Adm. Phil Davidson, former commander of Indo-Pacific Command, predicted in 2021 that the following six years would see China’s threat to naval forces reach its height.
An October report entitled “A Modern Naval Act to Meet the Surging China Threat” Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank, demanded legislation to increase shipbuilding capacities and that policymakers take action within what they have called “the framework.” “the Davidson window.”
Brent Sadler, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, said in the report: “A war with China would be decided at sea, and an American victory will depend on having adequate naval forces.”
Sadler observed that, while the Navy planned to keep its fleet larger than 300, it has kept the average number of ships 10 below its procurement plans since 2017, and has had less than 300 warships in service since 2003. According to the report, China has also increased its fleet capacity by approximately 150 ships.
Sadler estimates that it would take two to three years to expand shipbuilding capacity due to the vendor selection process — which is why Congress should pass legislation in the next session if the Navy wants to be ready by 2027.
General David Berger, Marine Corps Commandant, stated that China is far behind the rest in terms of capability but is growing rapidly in its capacity.
“They’re building an amphibious force so they can project power, and I don’t see that trajectory stopping,” During a Defense Writers Group meeting in December, he spoke this. “So capability wise [they are] way behind us. Capacity wise, we should pay absolute attention to [it].”
Some lawmakers are supportive of increasing maritime capacity, particularly those representing constituents who would benefit from a boost in the local economic.
Representative Elaine Luria (D-Va.) and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), introduced an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act ($37 billion), that would have authorized more than $4 billion in funding for ship maintenance and procurement. Virginia and Maine are home to two of the United States’ four public shipyards.
Luria warned that a smaller fleet would reduce capability “in the timeframe when the threat from China is the greatest,” She stated this in a press statement at the time. The amendment sought funding to support the maintenance of the fleet and to build one more Arleigh Burke class destroyer in fiscal year 2018. It also requested funds to restore five littoral combat ship and other research and development investments.
In December, Congress signed the authorization bill with the amendment into law. This charted a course for Congress in funding the additional destroyer. This brings the total number of ships to three in the next fiscal years.
Lawmakers also passed language in the legislation that could help the Marine Corps’ bid to increase amphibious ship production.
The legislation authorizes $32.6 million in spending to build Navy ships, one amphibious and one for maintenance. It clarifies, however, that the Navy can’t enter into a contract without first consulting the Marine Corps.
Adm. Daryl Caudle of U.S. Fleet Forces Command spoke out against the inability to maintain existing ships. “is placing a large and unsustainable strain on our [Optimized Fleet Response Plan], our operational availability and our forward presence options.”
There are currently four Navy public shipyards that can be used for maintenance or overhauls.
When asked if there’s an argument to be made for opening a fifth public shipyard, Caudle replied: “Of course, I mean … I need six.”
The Navy has stated that because of maintenance costs and delays, it could move to decommission several amphibious ships, including four amphibious dock landing ships, in the coming years counter to the Marine Corps’ modernization plan, known as Force Design 2030.
However, the Navy ordered a study to determine how many amphibious boats would make up the final count. This study has not been released. Berger stated that the NDAA allows the service to go beyond the 31-ship requirement.
Berger stated that, regardless of the distribution of ships among the services the Marine Corps, Navy, and Coast Guard are becoming more aware of the fragile state in which shipyards find themselves than ever before.
“I think the Department of Defense leadership, civilian and uniformed, is a lot more aware of — even if we’re not smart enough on — the industrial base than we were five years ago,” He stated.
He said that shipbuilding mergers have reduced the number significantly of shipyards, reducing both capacity and competition.
“Industrial capacity, diversity — this is a discussion like every week, and it never was before,” He stated.
In November, Bollinger Shipyards acquired ST Engineering subsidiary VT Halter Marine, the shipyard that has a contract for the Coast Guard’s new Polar Security Cutter. It will be America’s first icebreaker constructed since the 1970s.
Coast Guard Vice Adm. Peter Gautier told the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation that the program delayed its delivery date to Coast Guard from 2025 down to around 2026.
Berger stated that labor is the “main limiting factor” Shipyard capacity is being reduced due to a lack of workforce retention. However, he said that it has been even harder to keep workers because of the uncertainty surrounding the shipbuilding industry.
“We got to keep that active, warm producing all the time,” He stated. Production that is not properly heated will result in production being frozen. “harder and harder to bring that factory back, harder to bring those workers back.”
He said that competition could lower costs in the long term.
“I think if the CNO had his druthers, he would double the number of shipyards tomorrow because we need capacity and we need competition,” Berger said. “We need both to get the citizens a good price on their ships, right?”
Caudle claimed: “I need enough capacity in our shipyards to drive down the [maintenance] backlog to zero,” He stated. “We just continue to stack ships up [and] not get them back into the fight. So … yes, we need to be thinking about what we do to increase that capability.”
— Additional reporting by Josh Luckenbaugh
Topics: Shipbuilding, International, Navy News
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