“At the end of this exercise, the U.S. has naval control of the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, and the U.S. says we’re going to hold on to it — maybe with friends, maybe not, because it’s an international waterway. We believe in freedom of navigation. That’s international law,” he said in an interview on Monday. “So at that point, President Donald Trump can say to [Chinese President Xi Jinping], ‘We’re now in control of the Strait of Hormuz. You can count on us. We’re going to keep it open. We know how important it is, really, to you, not to us, and it would be a shame, wouldn’t it, if some conflict somewhere else in the world — it would mean we’d have to close down the strait.’”

Trump has said the administration expected Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the American and Israeli offensive, but, so far, the United States has received virtually no interest from allies in helping to police the critical waterways. India has agreed to send a handful of warships to support the American-led effort, but Britain, Japan, Germany, and Australia have all, so far, rejected the president’s request.

Global oil prices have risen dramatically since Trump first launched airstrikes on Feb. 28, with oil futures peaking north of $120 per barrel roughly one week into the fighting, up from some $70 per barrel in February. Prices are currently hovering around $95 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, while subsequent waves of Iranian retaliatory strikes, coupled with Iranian mines laid in the strait itself, have slowed regional energy commerce to a shell of its former self. 

But China itself, which receives between 25% and 50% of its total oil consumption directly from Iran, has been largely insulated from volatility, in part because it continues to receive discounted Iranian crude. Reports indicate that four oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded on Monday, likely bound for Chinese ports. 

“Once China, once Xi Jinping realizes that the U.S. is keeping the strait open, and can close it, Xi has to think, ‘If I started a war over Taiwan, how would I get oil? What are my substitutes if I lose 5.4 million barrels per day?’ And my hypothesis is that it would take years to replace that. There’s no immediate replacement for that,” said May. “A lot of people have been saying, as you know, ‘We shouldn’t focus on the Middle East. We’ve got to worry about China.’ No. If you want to deter China from seizing Taiwan, what we’re doing right now is more important than anything else I can think of.”

Two other Trumpworld insiders echoed May’s suggestion.

One longtime, out-of-government adviser to the president discounted the idea that Operation Epic Fury is geared in any way toward undermining China’s regional dominance but conceded that American control over the Strait of Hormuz “obviously makes it more difficult for China to wage war in any theater, not to mention maintain its current manufacturing capacity.”

A former Trump White House official declined to comment on the prospect of the U.S. controlling the strait after the war ends but reiterated that Trump is “laser-focused” on U.S.-Sino relations.

“I don’t think that President Trump views China as an out-and-out enemy,” that person suggested. “He would rather cooperate with China than seek out another hot war. That’s a no-brainer. But don’t think he won’t take risks, which could include taking out the radical terrorist regime in Tehran, to gain an advantage over Beijing if it’s in the best interest of the American people.”

The White House also declined to comment on the president’s thinking regarding the subject, but a senior Trump administration official simultaneously told the Washington Examiner that the he is pursuing policies of “energy dominance,” which would eventually “lower prices at home, strengthen our allies, and send a clear message to our enemies that we’re not to be f***ed with.”

“President Trump is boosting domestic protection, yes, but he’s also making sure that the United States has its fingerprints all over the global energy trade. Look at Venezuela. Look at how he’s significantly improved relations with the OPEC nations,” that person, who was given anonymity to discuss the matter candidly, claimed. “This is peace through strength. This is America first. You’ve got to break a few eggs to make an omelette.”

Not all analysts agree that the strategy strengthens Washington’s hand against Beijing. Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis for Defense Priorities, told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s Iranian campaign actually makes Taiwan more vulnerable to an invasion from mainland China.

“The Chinese are happily watching the U.S. expend its munitions and burn up its military readiness in the Middle East,” she stated. “There’s no way that, if [China] tries to move on Taiwan now, the United States could defend Taiwan, and that’s going to be true for at least several years now. So I just don’t see this as a strategic win vis-a-vis China in any dimension.”

Beijing, thus far, has played it cool in its response to the war in Iran.

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The Chinese government has not given the government in Tehran military or intelligence assistance, but has also rejected Trump’s own overtures to help keep commerce flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The U.S. needs China more than China needs the U.S.,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said during a Monday press conference, adding that Beijing and Washington “remain in communication regarding President Trump’s visit.”