Trump’s financial relief faces midterm ‘history’ test: Byron York
The article argues that the Republican Party faces an uphill path into the 2026 midterms, even as Donald Trump emphasizes affordability as a central theme. Byron York notes that Republicans are counting on the timing and impact of tax refunds and other provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to blunt anticipated losses, a strategy supported by Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He also highlights a long-standing political pattern: since the New Deal,a president’s party typically declines in midterms,with only George W. Bush in 2002 and Bill Clinton in 1998 countering that trend under special circumstances.White House aides, including chief of staff Susie Wiles, argue that a nationalized election with Trump at the center could rally the party to gains. The piece also references Trump’s economic messaging for the State of the Union, a new retirement-savings plan, and Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Wisconsin to promote the governance’s achievements.
Trump’s promise of financial relief must face ‘history’ of midterms: Byron York
Washington Examiner chief political correspondent Byron York said Tuesday that the Republican Party faces an uphill battle going into the 2026 midterm elections.
President Donald Trump is focusing on affordability ahead of the midterm elections, as the Republican Party seeks to retain its thin majority in the House of Representatives. York noted how Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believe the party can avoid a wipeout in November once the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax refunds and financial provisions start “kicking in.”
“But what can you say? You can’t predict these things, and history, as you know, and I’m sure all our listeners know, history really argues against the president’s party during midterms,” York said on the Hugh Hewitt Show, guest-hosted by Kurt Schlichter.
“The only time a president’s party has picked up seats during the midterms since the New Deal has been George W. Bush in 2002 and Bill Clinton in 1998, both of which were very special and very different reasons.”
Schlichter noted while history is opposing Trump and the Republican Party, Trump also made history when he became the first nonconsecutive president “in about a century.” York agreed this is “absolutely true,” adding that White House chief of staff Susie Wiles believes a “nationalized election with Trump at the center of it” can win the midterm elections for Republicans.
“A lot of factors are operating against the Republican Party right now, but I think everybody in the party would be pretty happy that the president seems to be kicking off the midterms tonight,” York said.
TRUMP’S ECONOMIC TALKING POINTS FOR THE STATE OF THE UNION
Trump unveiled a new retirement savings plan for workers during his State of the Union address, giving people access to “the same type of retirement plan” offered to federal workers. The president explained this plan will match contributions “up to $1,000 each year.”
Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Wisconsin on Thursday to tout the president’s economic accomplishments.
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