News of Trump’s involvement comes as polling averages show Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), the Democratic nominee, with a 4.6-point lead over Ciattarelli. Just last month, she held a lead of 8.5 points. Strategists note that his endorsement and mobilization put the governor’s mansion firmly in play.

“They wouldn’t be loading in at the last minute here if they didn’t think that they could pull it off,” New Jersey strategist and political consultant Henry de Koninck told the Washington Examiner. “Whether or not this additional push by Trump, as far as [whether] public support and fundraising will help put Ciattarelli over the edge, that’s another question.”

A Ciattarelli win would be a major victory for the Trump administration. Although Trump didn’t win the Garden State in 2024, he ran former Vice President Kamala Harris close, the closest a Republican came to winning it since 1992. The New Jersey gubernatorial race is one of two happening in 2025 that will serve as a temperature check on the president’s agenda.

That agenda temperature check, however, could be Ciattarelli’s downfall. Trump and Republicans have made significant inroads in New Jersey since the president’s 2016 run, but Trump ultimately lost the state to Harris by 5 points in the 2024 election. 

Sherrill has spent much of her campaign tying Ciattarelli to Trump to grow her standings in the polls. De Koninck said the more Sherrill can make the gubernatorial race a referendum on Trump, the better her chances of winning.

Trump is making that easy for Sherrill; his endorsement of Ciattarelli and the Republican nominee’s decision to give the president a grade “A” during last week’s debate sets up easy blocks for Sherrill to knock over. 

“Trump endorsed Jack Ciattarelli calling him ‘100% MAGA’ and Jack returned the favor by giving his cost-raising presidency an ‘A’ rating,” a Sherrill campaign spokesperson said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “While Jack will always go to bat for Trump, Mikie will stand up for New Jersey.”

De Koninck noted that, given the president’s level of support, there’s not much Ciattarelli can do to distance himself from Trump at this point. 

“Ciattarelli is kind of leaning into it here, down the line, not that he has a choice,” de Koninck said. “The president is going to do what he’s going to do, but if it’s a referendum on Trump, and Trump is not himself personally on the ballot, that is a recipe for success for Democrats.” 

Ciattarelli has mostly aligned himself with Trump, but he deflected during the debate on whether he was part of the Make America Great Again movement by saying he was part of the “New Jersey movement,” with the knowledge that to win, he’ll need to draw out voters in Trump-friendly areas throughout the state.

The New Jersey race will test whether Trump and his allies can rally enough support to bring GOP voters out in an off-year election cycle. Historically, Democrats have done a better job of getting their voting base to the polls in a non-presidential election year than Republicans. 

“Since Trump has come onto the national scene,” de Koninck said, “Democrats have done well when Trump is in office but not personally on the ballot himself.… That’s a trend that’s 10 years old right now.” 

So, New Jersey Republicans will have to rely on the money from Trump allies and phone calls from the president himself to motivate voters to support a ballot that does not have Trump’s name on the top of the ticket.

Another bellwether race is that of Virginia, where former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are engaged in a competitive gubernatorial race. 

But while Trump endorsed Ciattarelli in New Jersey, he has not done the same for Earle-Sears, raising speculation that the president may see the writing on the wall: She is a much weaker candidate, and he’ll have more luck of a victory in the Garden State.

“Trump is more hesitant to endorse her, I think, because she is a black woman and she is projected to lose,” Kaivan Shroff, a 2024 delegate for Harris, told the Washington Examiner. “So I don’t think he’s willing to take the swing for her than he might for some other figures. And I just think there’s a long pattern of Trump not being a fan of black women. And a good example is the indictment of[NewYorkAttorneyGeneral[NewYorkAttorneyGeneralLetitia James].”

The president notably did not address or endorse Earle-Sears even as he spoke at the Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia earlier this month. Earle-Sears has consistently trailed Spanberger in polls and fundraising.

Trump has weighed in on the Virginia race — just not for Earle-Sears. He endorsed state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R-VA), who is seeking reelection against embattled Democrat Jay Jones. Jones sparked bipartisan ire after it was revealed that he sent violent text messages suggesting former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert should receive “two bullets to the head.”

“What he’s hoping is, by endorsing Miyares, you can focus on this Jay Jones [scandal], and maybe it may change dynamics at the top of the ticket,” said a Republican official who requested anonymity to speak freely. “We don’t know, but we do know that if this story doesn’t get coverage, nothing is going to change in Virginia, and Democrats are probably going to capture all three statewide offices.”

A second Republican operative, also granted anonymity to speak freely, spoke on the factors influencing Trump’s non-endorsement in the Virginia gubernatorial race. They said New Jersey is trending “much faster” toward the GOP than Virginia, which Republicans consider a blue state, “even though we did better there last year than we expected.”

The operative added that the recent federal layoffs and firings, as well as the government shutdown, are likely to have more of a negative effect on the GOP’s performance in Virginia. Though the shutdown seeped into New Jersey with the pause in funding for the Hudson Tunnel project, the consequences of a shutdown will be harder to overcome in a state like Virginia that borders Washington, D.C., versus a northern state like New Jersey.

Most importantly, the operative said, a candidate’s strength matters when it comes to Trump’s endorsements. 

“I would say that going into this race, there was a perception that Mikie Sherrill was not a good candidate and that Spanberger was a slightly better candidate,” the operative said. “And I think that that has largely borne out. I think clearly, Spanberger has not found a way to handle the Jay Jones messaging.”

The operative was alluding to the sole debate between the two Virginia candidates in which Earle-Sears hammered Spanberger over not calling on Jones to exit the attorney general race.

“I’m wondering why my opponent won’t say beyond its abhorrent and disgusting … that he must leave the race because Jay Jones advocated the murder, Abigail, the murder of a man, a former speaker, as well as his children, who were 2 and 5 years old,” Earle-Sears said during the Virginia debate last week.

Spanberger never responded to Earle-Sears’ taunts and dodged when moderators pressed her about whether Jones should drop out.

CIATTARELLI PLANS TO FILE DEFAMATION LAWSUIT AGAINST SHERRILL IN NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL RACE

“We are all running our individual races. I believe my opponent has said that about her lieutenant governor nominee,” Spanberger said. “And it is up to every person to make their own decision. I am running my race to serve Virginia, and that is what I intend to do.”

The Washington Examiner reached out to Trump and Ciattarelli’s campaign for comment.