Trouble in paradise for the GOP? A closer look at the Florida polls

For Republicans, is there trouble in paradise?

Both Florida Gov. Ron Desantis and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) remain favored in their respective races this fall. But the public polling, limited as it is, generally shows them winning by less than landslide margins.

BIDEN STICKS WITH THE SAFE AND FAMILIAR: RUNNING AGAINST TRUMP

Though Rubio leads in most recent polls, with the one exception raising methodological questions and coming from the same pollster that in August showed Nikki Fried leading the Democratic gubernatorial primary just days before she lost to Charlie Crist by 24.4 points, he is below 50% in most of them. A survey conducted by Tony Fabrizio, who has done work for former President Donald Trump, and a Democratic pollster has the two-term senator ahead by 2 points.

DeSantis’s lead looks more solid. But he was still winning by just 3 points in the Fabrizio poll and is up 4 points in Susquehanna but under 50%.

A win is a win, but even an underperformance by either candidate could have national implications. Under DeSantis, Florida has emerged as a model of conservative governance. That’s why he is also considered a top-tier GOP presidential prospect in 2024. Rubio is an important figure in the party, too, and sought the nomination unsuccessfully in 2016.

If they have to press to eke it out, it might be an indicator that the midterm elections will not in fact go as well for Republicans as had been expected for months, until the reversal of Roe v. Wade, President Joe Biden’s modest recovery, and Trump’s reemergence.

It could also test whether DeSantis’s record of governing in a battleground state as if he leads a reliably red one is more problematic than conservatives nationally hoped.

Recent history suggests an alternative explanation, however. In 2020, the final RealClearPolitics polling average showed Biden leading Trump by 0.9 percentage points. Scrolling back through weeks of aggregated polls before the election showed a sea of blue, showing Biden ahead, interrupted by a speck of red, a Trump lead.

Trump not only won Florida by 3.3 points that November. He received an absolute majority of the vote, 51.2%. Trump even outperformed the last Trafalgar poll. Interestingly, the polling average predicted Biden’s share of the vote at 47.9% but underestimated Trump’s by 4.2 points.

It’s part of a larger pattern. The final RealClearPolitics average in 2018 showed Democrat Andrew Gillum beating DeSantis by 3.6 points. Trafalgar was the last featured pollster to show the Republican leading while the other late polls had Gillum ahead by as many as 7 points.

DeSantis won by 0.4 points in a wave election year for Democrats.

Similarly, outgoing Florida Gov. Rick Scott was supposed to lose that year to incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) that same year by 2.4 points, according to the final RealClearPolitics average. Instead, he won by 0.2 points, 50.1% of the vote in total — a razor-thin lead but still an absolute majority. This year, Scott chairs the Senate GOP’s campaign arm.

If the political conditions in Florida in 2022 are to the left of where they were in 2020 or 2018, that could indeed be a bad sign for Republicans elsewhere.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE IN THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

But if they are not, it raises questions about other battleground states where the polling track record has been mixed and races for senator and governor are taking place. (Though Biden’s margin of victory in Pennsylvania in 2020 was exactly his final RealClearPolitics average lead.)

Stay tuned.